Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand | Page 39 | Metals Mine

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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #761
  • Apr 29, 2015 7:40am Apr 29, 2015 7:40am
Chart #6 Post #756 now indicates the following:

(1) on the Week, the market direction is Long above 1210.28,

(2) on the Day, the market is in a Bearish consolidation between the Short level @1227.83 and the Long level @1208.03. This timeframe does not indicate market direction,

(3) on the 8 Hour, the market direction is Long above 1205.22 with Retracement level @1207.00,

(4) on the 4 Hour the market direction is Long above 1204.53 with Retracement level @1205.76.

The target for Long positions on either the 4 Hour or 8 Hour timeframe is the Short level on the Day @1227.83 followed by 1231.62 (i.e. the Supply level on the Day).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #762
  • Edited 8:23am Apr 29, 2015 8:02am | Edited 8:23am
On Chart #7 Post #756 market is now "Establish Low" on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes.

On 8 Hour, Short level @1208.76 is now Resistance.

The Day is now Bearish below 1209.79 towards Demand @1186.28. Market remains Bearish below 1209.79.

After having failed to post a new candlestick High, the direction on the Week has returned to Neutral.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #763
  • Apr 29, 2015 1:17pm Apr 29, 2015 1:17pm
Chart #9 Post #756 you can see the application correctly identifies market direction as being Short on the 4 Hour!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #764
  • Edited 5:06pm Apr 30, 2015 5:16am | Edited 5:06pm
Thursday April 30, 2015
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (1).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (2).PNG Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (3).PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (4).PNG Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (5).PNG Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (6).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (7).PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (9).PNG Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Financial Instrument Analyzer - Gold (30-04-2015) (11).PNG Size: 24 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #765
  • Edited 6:27am Apr 30, 2015 5:34am | Edited 6:27am
Chart #1 Post #765

On the 4 Hour, the market has made a Low and market direction is Long above 1201.32. The target is the Short level @1204.13 on the 8 Hour timeframe. Given that the Day is Bearish, it is unlikely that this move will be able to take it to the next target level which is Supply @1212.14 on the 8 Hour timeframe.

On the 8 Hour, the market is in a Bullish consolidation between 1204.13 and 1199.01. There is no direction on this timeframe.

On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1203.70 towards Demand @1191.38. There is no direction on this timeframe.

On the Week, the market direction is Neutral (i.e. neither Long nor Short) between 1210.38 and 1199.34.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #766
  • Apr 30, 2015 6:44am Apr 30, 2015 6:44am
As per Post #766 above and as expected the market has reached the first target on the 8 Hour timeframe @1204.13. It is now progressing towards the second 8 Hour target @1212.14 (which I do not expect the market to reach).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #767
  • Apr 30, 2015 6:52am Apr 30, 2015 6:52am
Chart #2 Post #765 above is an intraday chart.

Here you can clearly see why I do not expect the market to reach the second target level on the 8 Hour timeframe.

Hint: 2 Hour timeframe
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #768
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:04am Apr 30, 2015 7:04am
Quoting jackeollio
Thursday April 30, 2015 {image} {image}
nice support at 1200, so we are bullish now on H8 to supply 1212 with retracement maybe to 1200 on H4 and H8 and demand on H2 with stop loss below 1199
  • #769
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:07am Apr 30, 2015 7:07am
Quoting airmac
{quote} nice support at 1200, so we are bullish now on H8 to supply 1212 with retracement maybe to 1200 on H4 and H8 and demand on H2 with stop loss below 1199
Not quite, on the 8 Hour timeframe we are Bullish above 1203.90 towards Supply @1208.26. Remember, there is no direction on the 8 Hour timeframe, it is a Bullish Bias not a direction!

Unless the market breaches Supply on the 8 Hour timeframe, you should not expect the market to reach 1212.01 (i.e. Short level on the Day).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #770
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:10am Apr 30, 2015 7:10am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Not quite, on the 8 Hour timeframe we are Bullish above 1203.90 towards Supply @1208.26. Remember, there is no direction on the 8 Hour timeframe, it is a Bullish Bias not a direction! Unless the market breaches Supply on the 8 Hour timeframe, you should not expect the market to reach 1212.01 (i.e. Short level on the Day).
yes, I was forcing a trade obviously, my bad, tricky and narrow levels today
  • #771
  • Edited 7:41am Apr 30, 2015 7:28am | Edited 7:41am
Quoting airmac
{quote} yes, I was forcing a trade obviously, my bad, tricky and narrow levels today
Good point.

The imbalances in Supply and Demand created by the market are an accurate measure of market volatility and, in my opinion, the most accurate way to actually measure volatility at any given time.

Provided your methodology enables you to accurately calculate Supply and Demand.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #772
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:39am Apr 30, 2015 7:39am
Please note that I have posted 2 new charts, charts #4 and #5 in Post #765 above.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #773
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:59am Apr 30, 2015 7:59am
Quoting jackeollio
Please note that I have posted 2 new charts, charts #4 and #5 in Post #765 above.
nice, we broke support, and and we are short at 1200.46 to 1191 demand on the day, stop loss above 1205, because weekly is short we expect even demand on the Day to be breached ...
  • #774
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:02am Apr 30, 2015 8:02am
Quoting airmac
{quote} nice, we broke support, and and we are short at 1204 to 1191 demand on the day
With my methodology, you should avoid using the words Support and Resistance as they usually are cause for confusion.

Market either breaches Supply or Demand, that's pretty much it.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #775
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:05am Apr 30, 2015 8:05am
From Chart #6 Post #765 above, you can see how the market direction is Short across all timeframes except the 8 Hour timeframe.

Notice the Retracement level on the Day.

Immediate Retracement level is indicated on the 4 Hour timeframe (is now 1191.44).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #776
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:11am Apr 30, 2015 8:11am
price is a long way from the Day retrace level. not sure I follow what you are saying, Jack ?
  • #777
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:13am Apr 30, 2015 8:13am
Quoting tripr
price is a long way from the Day retrace level. not sure I follow what you are saying, Jack ?
I was just pointing out that we now have a Retracement level on the Day which is rather High so highly unlikely it will be reached.

Now look at chart #7.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #778
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:15am Apr 30, 2015 8:15am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} With my methodology, you should avoid using the words Support and Resistance as they usually are cause for confusion. Market either breaches Supply or Demand, that's pretty much it.
Deal. That was a fast move down.
  • #779
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:17am Apr 30, 2015 8:17am
Quoting airmac
{quote} Deal. That was a fast move down.
The move was to be expected as per the Day chart #1 post #765 above which indicated that the market was Bearish towards Demand @1191.38.

The first chart was posted at 6:00 this morning and clearly indicated that the market was Bearish.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #780
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:22am Apr 30, 2015 8:22am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} The move was to be expected as per the Day chart #1 post #765 above which indicated that the market was Bearish towards Demand @1191.38. The first chart was posted at 6:00 this morning and clearly indicated that the market was Bearish.

On the new picture, is target now the low of the week, which is supply now? Or we wait that the low of the day is broken so we proceed to the low of the week?
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