Disliked{quote} Looks like we should probably be looking for small specs to be at 10k-20k longs... probably not too relevant though. I do think we're getting closer to the bottom.. somewhere in the 2's...Ignored
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Disliked{quote} Looks like we should probably be looking for small specs to be at 10k-20k longs... probably not too relevant though. I do think we're getting closer to the bottom.. somewhere in the 2's...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yes, there are "ideal" situations, but they don't necessarily have to be present as you correctly assumed. What is clear at the moment, is that the stress level on the bearish side of the market is becomming very large... Large Specs are hevily bearish, making large profits on this downtrend. Profits of course materialize only once they close their positions. Now we all know what that will mean --> buying will start to begin.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Cotton also another one I'm looking at for a massive massive long term move coming in the next months/years. Can you share a chart/analyze that?Ignored
Disliked{quote} Is this the most bullish commercials have ever been on Natural Gas? I hope it keeps coming down to the 2.0 level, this will be one of the great investments iMO.Ignored
DislikedHi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Cocoa COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 36%, SS - 49% / The two main cot signals pointing in opposite direction. On one hand, we have a pretty large change in Traders positions, suggesting a move upwards… in the near term it may easily happen, but if we look at the wider picture, we can see that not too long ago, we has a major bearish cot extreme signal. I believe it is still active and we should be expecting lower prices to come. Soybeans COT Extreme...Ignored
DislikedHi Dunstan, How you define an extreme position for the COT reports. I'm interested in two things: -trend reversal -trend continuation Can you tell either apart from your analysis.?Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hi verv, Generally speaking, an extreme net position exists, when a Trader category builds up such amount of short or long positions that have not existed for a very long time. Now one may ask, what counts for very long time that is something to be looked at, once you analyze a specific market. This can be different from market to market. I usually recommend looking at least on a five year long chart, because the extremes become visible on such a scale. Trend reversals logically happen, when we have a cot extreme in the market. If we do...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hi verv, Generally speaking, an extreme net position exists, when a Trader category builds up such amount of short or long positions that have not existed for a very long time. Now one may ask, what counts for very long time that is something to be looked at, once you analyze a specific market. This can be different from market to market. I usually recommend looking at least on a five year long chart, because the extremes become visible on such a scale. Trend reversals logically happen, when we have a cot extreme in the market. If we do...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Thanks Dunstan, That makes sense to me, and what I was initally thinking. I was reading someone else who said to pay attention to the commercials, but as a trader (trend follower) that doesn't really make sense to me, because the commercials are hedging. I can see how commercial extremes might warn of a trend reversal though. I will check out those videos you post later. Thanks againIgnored
Disliked{quote} Looks like coffee has been dumped hard (as expected) any thoughts on that market/ long term COT chart you can post here? Can clearly see commercials becoming more bullish ..Ignored