Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

You got it right

We'll see how it turns out

All the best,
Dunstan

Hi Dunstan,

i am follower of COT as well, and blend it with basket trading here is my analysis on Silver.

i very very strong signal that silver will rise again soon

what is the platform / software you are for COT data ?

another speculation :

GBPUSD to fall this month again a very strong signal
The crowd that matters is going short the 80% losers are going long.

Hi zahmed,

I'm glad to hear that you also follow the cot report! I aggree with your assumtions about silver and GBP, these are deffinitely markets where we have trading opportunities.

I use cotbase.com to check the commitments of traders report. So I do my technical analysis in different software than my cot analysis.

All the best,
Dunstan

Thanks for the vote dunstan,

My sliver is already running good on my live account

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 26% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 77%, LS – 37%, SS – 2% /
We had a pretty large change in Commercials and also in Large Speculators positions (looking at the last one year history, the change size was in the top 10%). It seems as if the signal came a bit late, since last week Thursday and Friday prices have rallied. Since the cot extreme situation is still bullish, I’d say that the chances of further rallying prices is larger.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C – 59, LS – 57, SS - 59 report COT extreme /
Not much change since last week: relatively we may talk about an extreme, but there is still reasonable space left for Traders to become even more extreme about the market. The cot report does not really give us an edge this time.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 43, LS – 42, SS - 217 report COT extreme /
The extreme is becoming really significant in soybeans (bullish picture). Commercials and Large Speculators have still got room for further positions, but in case of Small Speculators, they have reached All Time (close to it) extreme levels. I think prices can still decline for a while, but I’d be surprised if this decline continued for many weeks…

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 51% /
The change in USD Index was HUGE (!), but not unseen… Large Speculators are long again (above 20.000 contracts net long), but the signal is still a bearish one. The last major cot extreme was a few months ago and it was a bullish signal. I don’t believe that in the medium/long term we need to expect any serious price declines.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C,LS – All Time COT extreme /
The All Time extreme we have in Crude Oil now suggests that prices will not be able to rally further for too long… of course the all time extreme can be in the market for a few weeks or even months before any real change in the trend.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C – 359, LS – 340 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme in GBP is considerable and I’m expecting prices to reach a top soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 28%, SS – 31% /
Let’s see, what do we have here… Cot extreme: we had a bullish cot extreme in the last couple of weeks, so rising prices is not surprising. The change in Traders positions this week was larger than average and a bearish signal, so we may consider a cautious trade downwards.

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 27% /
Looking at the chart it seems that cot changes were pretty effective in Orange Juice in the past years… The bullish cot change signal seems to be a good signal that we can act on.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C – 361, LS – 342 report COT extreme /
Prices have not yet reached their top, but as they go higher and higher, the cot extreme is becoming larger too… We may need to be a bit more patient, but I’m pretty confident that eventually prices will react to this large cot signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 22%, SS – 30% /
Having no extreme in the market, it is only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in Traders positions was significant, much larger than usual. It is a bullish signal that may influence prices in the near future. Analyzing the effectiveness of cot change signals in heating oil, we can come to the conclusion that the signals are pretty effective.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 71 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is an unquestionably large cot extreme in the market (LS have never been so optimistic about the market as they are today). It would be nicer if SS were as extreme, but never the less, it is still something to talk about! Ohh, if anyone is unsure, we are talking about a bearish cot signal here As always, my warning: all time cot extremes can be present in a market for even months before price reaction, so be careful, pleeeease!

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 405, LS – 225 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful picture we have in Soybeans!! All major participants of the market hold extremely large net positions… (bullish cot extreme signal) If you look at the charts for all soybeans market, you’ll see how well they react to cot extreme signals, so I’m personally really excited now!

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

What COT service do you use?

I use cotbase.com to analyze the cot report.

All the best,
Dunstan

hiii Dunstan am a new fan of cot report and have just started to understand the importance of cot report . I have read a few books about it also.Ur post has gave me more confidence in continuing with it .thanks a lot dude

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /
The change in Traders positions was significant, we can talk about a cot change signal. It is bullish and looking at the last one year, we can see that in the majority of cases, these signals could effectively be used.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 429, LS – 226 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme is becoming larger and larger. It is of course extremely difficult to tell, when the decline will end, but it is pretty clear that stresses in this market will soon burst and eventually create a bottom.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 196, LS – 198 report COT extreme /
Not too long ago we were talking about a bullish cot extreme, but as you can see, things can change pretty fast in the market à we are now seeing a bearish extreme. This is a warning for those of you, who took the bullish signal earlier and built up a long position.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 13%, SS – 18% /
The largest change in Commercials positions was in Heating Oil this week, so we definitely have a cot signal that we can act on. Of course examining the chart closer, we can see that two weeks ago we had an even greater change that most probably already influenced prices and that is why we see rising prices. You may ask logically if this is gonna continue? Well the extreme situation in the market also supports further rises in Heating Oil I believe.

Euro
COT Change (52W) / C – 14%, LS – 16% /
COT Extreme / C –99, LS – 86, SS – 110 report COT extreme /
The change signal and the extreme we have in Euro both point upwards… If you look at small specs, you can find them as pessimistic about the market as they were back in mid 2012 when we Euro reached an important bottom. Prices may of course continue their fall, but I don’t think it would last too long…

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C – 430, LS – 406 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Do I really need to say anything here? The pictures says it all!! (unquestionable large cot buy signal)


I’ll be out for a summer holiday during the next two reports, so sorry in advance for not posting. I’ll be back for the 32nd cot report this year.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /
The only clear signal we have in mxp right now is the cot change signal, which is bullish. After the relative bearish extreme we had, we are moving fast towards another bullish extreme.

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / C – 212, LS – 359 report COT extreme /
The bullish cot extreme we’ve got here suggest that prices will continue the rally… We will see.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 95, LS – 91 report COT extreme /
The picture is pretty obvious: judging by the past reactions of cotton after such extremes, we should expect the downtrend to end soon.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Both of our major cot signals this week are producing strong bearish signals. The change was quite large besides having all time extreme both in Commercials and Large specs positions. The question may be: should we start shorting the market? Well that’s up to your system to decide, but keep in mind, that these all time cot extreme are capable of being present in a market for some time before any price reaction.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 37, LS – 141 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become large again, has a reached a level where we can start considering a trade. It would be nicer if SS were also in a align with LS and C, but nevertheless, we have a supporting cot report for thinking long.

Euro
COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 106 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a considerable extreme in C and LS and an unquestionable large extreme in SS. It is of course a bullish picture, but again, I need to repeat what I just said in my analysis on Palladium: these extremes can stay for long, widen even more before any change in the trend. Still, it’s good to know that we have such stresses in the Euro, cause we can start thinking of a possible long trades.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 23%, SS – 36% /
Without having a significant extreme in the market, it’s only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in traders position was very large, so the signal is good, but it might be that we received it a bit late.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time extreme we can see in this markets is telling us: warning!! The fuel in this rally is running out. Well yes, it is, but let’s not forget about the fact that all time extremes can be present in a market for many weeks or even months before any change happens in the trend.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C – 337, LS – 338 report COT extreme /
We are seeing a huge extreme in Coffee that is indicating a price fall. Will it happen in the near future or only in a matter of weeks, months… well it is hard to tell. We can see that a few months ago, the level of extreme was similar, prices fell a bit, but now they are once again rising. If this rally continues, we should see the widening of the extreme.

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 26%, SS – 17% /
The cot change signal is clear, indicating a possible drop in prices, while the cot extreme signal is not strong, although still more bearish than bullish.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time cot extreme is still present in Palladium, but if you remember what I said last week, this should not be a surprise. I’d recommend you analyze other metal markets also to get a picture of metals in general. We may see Palladium further strengthen, until we get similar bearish signals elsewhere. Let’s not forget about the existing correlation between these markets.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 412 report COT extreme /
The extreme in Soybeans is unquestionably large, but we don’t seem to see any reaction from price yet. Patience I say, patience…

All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts