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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #681
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:33pm Jun 16, 2014 12:33pm
Quoting tripr
{quote} not sure i'm following the rationale on this one Jack. when was trade taken and why ? based on day and week, wouldn't the S/L's be above the Short levels and the target would be day demand at 1277.54 ?
See Chart #4 above.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #682
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:47pm Jun 16, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} See Chart #4 above.
that's not helping much. i was looking to go short this morning but from slightly higher higher levels. also, why would you have a target at 1275, that's the 8h demand ? it has to get thru day demand first which was higher.
  • #683
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:06pm Jun 16, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting tripr
{quote} that's not helping much. i was looking to go short this morning but from slightly higher higher levels. also, why would you have a target at 1275, that's the 8h demand ? it has to get thru day demand first which was higher.
(see chart below)

Short Entry @1282.47 is based on the Long level on 8 Hour timeframe.

Stop Loss @1284.33 (slightly above) is based on Long level on Day timeframe.

Take Profit @1275.10 (slightly above) is based on Demand level on the 8 Hour timeframe.

The fact that the Demand level @1275.10 on the 8 Hour is lower than the Demand level @1277.54 on the Day suggests that the market will breach through the Demand level on the Day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-06-2014 (81-4).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #684
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:23pm Jun 16, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} (see chart below) Short Entry @1282.47 is based on the Long level on 8 Hour timeframe. Stop Loss @1284.33 (slightly above) is based on Long level on Day timeframe. Take Profit @1275.10 (slightly above) is based on Demand level on the 8 Hour timeframe. The fact that the Demand level @1275.10 on the 8 Hour is lower than the Demand level @1277.54 on the Day suggests that the market will breach through the Demand level on the Day. {image}
so the 4h demand level did not concern you nor the fact that the 4h was bullish and would have a bullish bias down to 1278 ?
  • #685
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:24pm Jun 16, 2014 1:24pm
Jack:

Based upon the most recent tools levels at 2:18 PM EST

Would the following strategy make sense?

Current Price is 1274.43

8H Long is 1279.49 Day Long is 1278.94 Weekly Long is 1278.28

Wait for price to retrace into 1278.28 ( Weekly Long) to 1278.94 (Daily Long) area.... Put Stop above 1279.49 8 H Long ( Stop might be 1280.10) Target is 4H Demand at 1272.18 ( Above that- Maybe 1273.00)

Risk $ 1.80 to make $ 5.30

Is this anywhere close to being logical ?
  • #686
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:30pm Jun 16, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting gtimko1012
Jack: Based upon the most recent tools levels at 2:18 PM EST Would the following strategy make sense? Current Price is 1274.43 8H Long is 1279.49 Day Long is 1278.94 Weekly Long is 1278.28 Wait for price to retrace into 1278.28 ( Weekly Long) to 1278.94 (Daily Long) area.... Put Stop above 1279.49 8 H Long ( Stop might be 1280.10) Target is 4H Demand at 1272.18 ( Above that- Maybe 1273.00) Risk $ 1.80 to make $ 5.30 Is this anywhere close to being logical ?
Certainly makes sense.

Now read the market this way:

(1) the highest the market is likely to retrace is the Supply level @1276.34 on the 4 Hour,

(2) the 8 Hour is no longer in play, and

(3) the Day is no longer in play.

Given that the 4 Hour is in the Passive Consolidation Zone, the plan is to wait for the 8 Hour and the Day to reset.

Our plan is to go Short and our target is the Demand level @1267.71 on the Week.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #687
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:35pm Jun 16, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting gtimko1012
Jack: Based upon the most recent tools levels at 2:18 PM EST Would the following strategy make sense? Current Price is 1274.43 8H Long is 1279.49 Day Long is 1278.94 Weekly Long is 1278.28 Wait for price to retrace into 1278.28 ( Weekly Long) to 1278.94 (Daily Long) area.... Put Stop above 1279.49 8 H Long ( Stop might be 1280.10) Target is 4H Demand at 1272.18 ( Above that- Maybe 1273.00) Risk $ 1.80 to make $ 5.30 Is this anywhere close to being logical ?
this is what i'm waiting on now, though 4h supply level may hold the mkt. from getting there. but that area could be good area to short with a target to week demand level of 1267.7. my 2 cents.
  • #688
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:40pm Jun 16, 2014 1:40pm
Quoting tripr
{quote} this is what i'm waiting on now, though 4h supply level may hold the mkt. from getting there. but that area could be good area to short with a target to week demand level of 1267.7. my 2 cents.
In my opinion, going Short as the market approaches the 4 Hour Supply @1276.34 would be premature since there is no Bearish momentum at the moment (i.e. the 4 Hour is in the Passive Consolidation Zone).

I suggest you wait for the 8 Hour and the Day to reset.

Unless the next 8 Hour or Day are set to resume Bearish, stay on the sidelines.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #689
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:49pm Jun 16, 2014 1:49pm
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} In my opinion, going Short as the market approaches the 4 Hour Supply @1276.34 would be premature since there is no Bearish momentum at the moment (i.e. the 4 Hour is in the Passive Consolidation Zone). I suggest you wait for the 8 Hour and the Day to reset. Unless the next 8 Hour or Day are set to resume Bearish, stay on the sidelines.
agree and will wait probably until tommorrow to do anything.
  • #690
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:52pm Jun 16, 2014 1:52pm
Jack, check out post 685 and please offer a comment. thanks much
  • #691
  • Jun 16, 2014 1:56pm Jun 16, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting tripr
{quote} so the 4h demand level did not concern you nor the fact that the 4h was bullish and would have a bullish bias down to 1278 ?
Correct, the 4 Hour Demand level was of no concern to me.

What I was looking at is the 4 Hour Supply level @1283.74.

Since the market was Bearish on higher timeframes (3 out of 4), my assumption was that the market would not breach the Supply level on the 4 Hour and hence would head south.

Note that the Supply level @1283.74 on the 4 Hour is lower than the Long level @1284.33 on the Day.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #692
  • Jun 17, 2014 5:11am Jun 17, 2014 5:11am
Tuesday June 17, 2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Ollio's Live Commentary - Gold, Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swissy

Starts : 13:15 EST (UTC-5:00)
Ends : 14:30 EST (UTC-5:00)

Link : Please note, there will be no live commentary today.

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Please note that exceptionally for today, I will not be able to post my charts and give you my analysis.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #693
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:16am Jun 18, 2014 5:16am
gold app stopped working at 5:22 a.m. and still off.
  • #694
  • Jun 18, 2014 5:57am Jun 18, 2014 5:57am
The Application is not updating for me as well. Last Update was 5:22 EST
  • #695
  • Jun 18, 2014 6:04am Jun 18, 2014 6:04am
Quoting gtimko1012
The Application is not updating for me as well. Last Update was 5:22 EST
guess Jack is off again today.
  • #696
  • Jun 23, 2014 8:04am Jun 23, 2014 8:04am
this thread still alive?
  • #697
  • Jun 23, 2014 9:32am Jun 23, 2014 9:32am
Quoting zets
this thread still alive?
great question, wish i knew. he's been gone a week now.
  • #698
  • Jun 27, 2014 1:52am Jun 27, 2014 1:52am
hi guys...issue with gold on my end, stuck and not refreshing...anybody else? does anybody know what happened to jack?
  • #699
  • Jun 27, 2014 5:30am Jun 27, 2014 5:30am
Quoting bubola
hi guys...issue with gold on my end, stuck and not refreshing...anybody else? does anybody know what happened to jack?
mine is doing the same though the other mkts. seem to be working fine. not sure where Jack has gone. was thinking he may have had a sudden emergency come up but not sure really.
  • #700
  • Jun 27, 2014 6:22am Jun 27, 2014 6:22am
tx, tripr, now finally working
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