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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #661
  • Jun 12, 2014 11:19am Jun 12, 2014 11:19am
Link for today's Live Commentary has been posted ... see post #643 above.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #662
  • Edited 11:47am Jun 13, 2014 5:03am | Edited 11:47am
Friday June 13, 2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Ollio's Live Commentary - Gold, Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swissy

Starts : 13:15 EST (UTC-5:00)
Ends : 14:30 EST (UTC-5:00)

Link : Please note, there will be no live commentary today. Live Commentary is now only twice a week, on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish above 1272.32 with Demand @1271.18.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1277.08 with Demand @1263.93.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1275.02 with Demand @1270.37.
On the Week, the market is Bullish above 1253.43 with Supply @1301.35.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1272.42 with Supply @1274.87.
The 8 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1269.07. The market returns Bullish above 1273.71 and Bearish below 1269.07.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1272.18. The market returns Bullish above 1273.98 and Bearish below 1272.18.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1269.81. The market returns Bullish above 1273.37 and Bearish below 1269.81.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1273.64 and 1272.92.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1273.37 with Supply @1278.31.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1275.02 on the Day and Bullish above 1273.64 on the 8 Hour.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1273.64 with Supply @1275.47.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1270.11. The market returns Bullish above 1273.37 and Bearish below 1270.11.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1273.22 with Demand @1271.46.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #7 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1275.59 and 1272.96.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1273.64 and 1273.22.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 13-06-2014 (80-1).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 13-06-2014 (80-2).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 13-06-2014 (80-4).PNG Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 13-06-2014 (80-7).PNG Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 13-06-2014 (80-8).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 13-06-2014 (80-9).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 13-06-2014 (80-10).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #663
  • Jun 13, 2014 5:44am Jun 13, 2014 5:44am
Jack, is it fair to say the day is in control ? if not, then the 4h ?
  • #664
  • Edited 6:28am Jun 13, 2014 5:55am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting tripr
Jack, is it fair to say the day is in control ? if not, then the 4h ?
You are absolutely right, the Day is the highest timeframe of the 4 timeframes we have which is in control of price action on the market.

That being said, lower timeframes may be momentarily in control for a shorter period of time (i.e. 1 Hour, 2 Hour, 4 Hour, 8 Hour, etc.) but the higher timeframe remains in control until the market successfully breaches either one of the Supply or Demand levels on that timeframe.

Lower timeframes represent intermediate levels of control.

In our case, lower levels could take over control of price action on the market provided they can successfully breach through either one of the Supply or Demand levels on the Day.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #665
  • Jun 13, 2014 6:48am Jun 13, 2014 6:48am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} You are absolutely right, the Day is the highest timeframe of the 4 timeframes we have which is in control of price action on the market. That being said, lower timeframes may be momentarily in control for a shorter period of time (i.e. 1 Hour, 2 Hour, 4 Hour, 8 Hour, etc.) but the higher timeframe remains in control until the market successfully breaches either one of the Supply or Demand levels on that timeframe. Lower timeframes represent intermediate levels of control. In our case, lower levels could take over control of price action...
I forgot to mention that the 4 Hour is not in control of price action.

If you want to know why, join the next live commentary Tuesday June 17, 2014.

Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #666
  • Jun 13, 2014 7:39am Jun 13, 2014 7:39am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} I forgot to mention that the 4 Hour is not in control of price action. If you want to know why, join the next live commentary Tuesday June 17, 2014.
quit teasing us Jack.
  • #667
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:14am Jun 13, 2014 8:14am
the app has stopped working.
  • #668
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:16am Jun 13, 2014 8:16am
Quoting tripr
the app has stopped working.
Application is verifying security credentials and will resume soon ...
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #669
  • Jun 13, 2014 8:51am Jun 13, 2014 8:51am
Quoting tripr
{quote} quit teasing us Jack.
Questions are better answered and secrets likes these are best revealed in a live commentary.

Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #670
  • Jun 13, 2014 9:08am Jun 13, 2014 9:08am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Questions are better answered and secrets likes these are best revealed in a live commentary.
stay thirsty my friend.
  • #671
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:28am Jun 13, 2014 11:28am
As tripr mentioned earlier this morning, we can see that the Day has remained in control of price action.

Lower timeframes have failed to breach Supply or Demand levels on the Day.

Hence the reason it is so very important to be able to identify the reference timeframe (i.e. the timeframe which is in control of price action).

Until the application is upgraded to include this feature, traders must know the rules to identify the reference timeframe.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #672
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:31am Jun 13, 2014 11:31am
in case i want to enter or re-enter on long for next week is the 1270 the retrace lvl to have my pending with sl 1269 ?
1270 is day demand lvl.aiming for week supply lvl.base on the given frame box
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade13_1.jpg Size: 49 KB
  • #673
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:39am Jun 13, 2014 11:39am
Quoting zarkon
in case i want to enter or re-enter on long for next week is the 1270 the retrace lvl to have my pending with sl 1269 ? 1270 is day demand lvl.aiming for week supply lvl.base on the given frame box {image}
I don't know what the technical levels will be for next week.

Let's wait and see what the application will report in terms of market direction and other technical levels early next week.

I would remove any pending orders until then.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #674
  • Edited 11:40am Jun 16, 2014 5:33am | Edited 11:40am
Monday June 16, 2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Ollio's Live Commentary - Gold, Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swissy

Starts : 13:15 EST (UTC-5:00)
Ends : 14:30 EST (UTC-5:00)

Link : Please note, there will be no live commentary today. Live Commentary is now only twice a week, on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1283.39 with Demand @1277.73.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1280.92, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1280.92.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 12584.33 with Demand @1277.57.
On the Week, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1286.68. The market returns Bearish below 1278.28 and Bullish above 1286.68.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1283.29 with Demand @1277.73.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1284.34 and 1280.61. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1284.34 and momentarily Bearish below 1280.61.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1280.22 with Supply @1283.97.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1281.03 with Demand @1273.71.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #4

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1282.47 on the 8 Hour and Bullish above 1280.00 on the 4 Hour.
On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1280.00 with Supply @1283.74.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1282.47 with Demand @1275.10.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1284.33 with Demand @1277.54.
On the Week, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1286.68. The market returns Bearish below 1278.28 and Bullish above 1286.68.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1274.62. The market returns Bullish above 1278.69.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1282.08, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have Retracement Level @1282.08.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1278.28 with Demand @1267.57.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1274.38 with Supply @1276.33.
On the 8 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1279.49.
On the Day, we have a new Retracement Level @1278.94.
The Week remains unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-06-2014 (81-1).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-06-2014 (81-2).PNG Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-06-2014 (81-3).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-06-2014 (81-4).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-06-2014 (81-6).PNG Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-06-2014 (81-7).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #675
  • Jun 16, 2014 5:55am Jun 16, 2014 5:55am
The 15 min timeframe is the Reference Timeframe (i.e. in control of price action on the market) ... see chart below ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-06-2014 (Control #1).PNG Size: 27 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #676
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:13am Jun 16, 2014 8:13am
Jack:

Based upon the recent $3.50 dollar drop in Gold at 9:00 AM EST .... It appears to me that the 15M chart is no longer a factor ( I think).

Looking at the other timeframes 4H 8H Daily and weekly and (the lack of Supply and Demand levels) it's hard for me to come up with a "Strategy" at this time
  • #677
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:19am Jun 16, 2014 8:19am
Quoting gtimko1012
Jack: Based upon the recent $3.50 dollar drop in Gold at 9:00 AM EST .... It appears to me that the 15M chart is no longer a factor ( I think). Looking at the other timeframes 4H 8H Daily and weekly and (the lack of Supply and Demand levels) it's hard for me to come up with a "Strategy" at this time
If you're referring to the 15 min timeframe on the chart posted on Post #676 above, the 15 min chart was no longer valid after 7:00 this morning.

A 15 min timeframe is only valid for 15 min.

At the time the chart was posted, it was 6:52. The next 15 min candlestick opened 18 minutes later which was @7:00.

As a side note, the 30 min and 1 Hour timeframes were also reset @7:00.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #678
  • Jun 16, 2014 8:22am Jun 16, 2014 8:22am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} If you're referring to the 15 min timeframe on the chart posted on Post #676 above, the 15 min chart was no longer valid after 7:00 this morning. A 15 min timeframe is only valid for 15 min. At the time the chart was posted, it was 6:52. The next 15 min candlestick opened 18 minutes later which was @7:00. As a side note, the 30 min and 1 Hour timeframes were also reset @7:00.
I better drink some Coffee and get my brain working better.... That makes perfect sense about the 15 Minute Chart
  • #679
  • Edited 12:32pm Jun 16, 2014 12:05pm | Edited 12:32pm
So basically, had you followed the direction and technical levels on the Day and Week (see Chart #4 above), this is what you would have so far:

Short Entry @1282.45 Stop Loss @1284.33 (slightly above) Take Profit @1275.10 (slightly above)

Your Risk Reward Ratio on this trade was approx. 3:1 and read as follows:

Risk = approx. 200 pips
Reward = approx. 650 pips

And that's just the beginning of the Week!!!



Let's see how many more pips we can make this week on Gold only.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #680
  • Jun 16, 2014 12:29pm Jun 16, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting jackeollio
So basically, had you followed the direction and technical levels on the Day and Week, this is what you would have so far: Short Entry @1282.45 Stop Loss @1284.33 (slightly above) Take Profit @1275.10 (slightly above) Your Risk Reward Ratio on this trade was approx. 3:1 and read as follows: Risk = approx. 200 pips Reward = approx. 650 pips And that's just the beginning of the Week!!! Let's see how many more pips we can make this week on Gold only.
not sure i'm following the rationale on this one Jack. when was trade taken and why ? based on day and week, wouldn't the S/L's be above the Short levels and the target would be day demand at 1277.54 ?
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