Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand | Page 32 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Rick Rule – Triple Gold Demand 0 replies

how can I know supply and demand in gold 2 replies

Gold Miner - Gold future support and resistance level trade 7 replies

Attachments: Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand
Exit Attachments

Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #621
  • Jun 10, 2014 6:08pm Jun 10, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting zarkon
{quote} 4H supply lvl is 1266,29 about those lvls , wasnt refering to the question post frames.better forget this question.
Ok cool.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #622
  • Jun 10, 2014 6:09pm Jun 10, 2014 6:09pm
Quoting zarkon
4H supply or demand price lvls are higher/lower than 8H.need explanation and possible strategies.Can i assume that 8H is out of the game ? and if day is on same direction we enter a trade? are those confict lvls a point of interest and price will return to this anomaly? on all cases price took a nice move up/down in the next 2-3 4H framesreload Also is 1266.91 and 1292.82 any point of interest? looking forward for next meeting {image} {image} {image} {image}
I think the best way to explain this one will be to do it during a live commentary.

What do you think ? Do you agree ?
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #623
  • Jun 10, 2014 11:20pm Jun 10, 2014 11:20pm
ofcourse jack.looking forward
  • #624
  • Jun 11, 2014 1:53am Jun 11, 2014 1:53am
from Caldera's post.i found some good explanation reflecting to this application also.
'''As we all know when the price moves with an impulse in any particular direction it has to retrace back at some point. The question is what factors can help us to determine to what level a price may retrace to.
Lets look at it from the perspective of a trader. If the price is moving up few traders will be going short, however, there will come a point when the price will hesitate and traders will go short (in order to get in on a high), If enough traders go short and the price continues going up then there is a kind of contradiction in that, there are a number of traders who are positioned wrongly in the market. So these traders have three options:
1. Get out of the trade immediately for a small loss which will further propel the market north. (closing a long is essentially buying into the market)
2. Wait for the next pause (or technical level) and keep adding orders until the price returns to the initial buying level. which would mean closing the first order at break even and the others for profits.
3. Keep the order open and wait for the price to return to the buy level and close to break even.
I think the most likeliest scenarios for many traders are options 2 and 3.
What this means then is that when the price returns to a level where a significant number of traders had entered wrongly in the market, the traders who then go about limiting their losses will contribute to support. If information concerning the location of these orders is available then other traders who haven't entered the market will use this as a buying opportunity so further contributing to support.
So the question arises how do we go about determining the location of support. I think the key here is volume in conjunction with alternating candles and their size . Also, if we were able to drop down a few time frames we could pin point where the market behaves in a contradictory manner.'''
  • #625
  • Jun 11, 2014 4:55am Jun 11, 2014 4:55am
Quoting zarkon
from Caldera's post.i found some good explanation reflecting to this application also. '''As we all know when the price moves with an impulse in any particular direction it has to retrace back at some point. The question is what factors can help us to determine to what level a price may retrace to. Lets look at it from the perspective of a trader. If the price is moving up few traders will be going short, however, there will come a point when the price will hesitate and traders will go short (in order to get in on a high), If enough traders go short...
Agree, Caldera does offer a very interesting, introductory level synopsis of the dynamics of the financial markets.

However, I wouldn't want to go into further detail of explaining what specific aspects of market dynamics he doesn't cover in his post since in doing so I would inevitably have to expose the rational behind key concepts of the application.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #626
  • Edited 3:31pm Jun 11, 2014 5:04am | Edited 3:31pm
Wednesday June 11, 2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Ollio's Live Commentary - Gold, Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swissy

Starts : 13:15 EST (UTC-5:00)
Ends : 14:30 EST (UTC-5:00)

Link : Please note, there will be no live commentary today. Live Commentary is now only twice a week, on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1262.60, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1262.60.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1259.12. The market returns Bullish above 1263.66 and Bearish below 1259.12.
On the Day, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1264.00 and 1261.28.
On the Week, the market is Bullish above 1253.43 with Supply @1301.24.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1263.27 and 1262.60. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1263.27 and momentarily Bearish below 1262.60.
The 8 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1263.63 with Demand @1261.90.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1266.95. The market returns Bearish below 1263.19 and Bullish above 1266.95.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1264.25, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1264.25.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1264.22 with Demand @1259.79.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1263.08, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have High, (3) we have a Retracement Level 1263.08.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1264.42 with Demand @1259.98.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1261.86 with Demand @1257.55.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1262.85, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1262.85.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1261.88 with Demand @1257.99.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #7 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1258.64 with Supply @1264.16.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1262.79 and 1259.38.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1261.88 with Demand @1257.99.
The Week remains unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 11-06-2014 (78-1).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 11-06-2014 (78-3).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 11-06-2014 (78-4).PNG Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 11-06-2014 (78-5).PNG Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 11-06-2014 (78-6).PNG Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 11-06-2014 (78-7).PNG Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 11-06-2014 (78-8).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #627
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:00am Jun 11, 2014 8:00am
totaly agree with you jack.only reson i re-post it was for the way it descibe the traders and how they could act and how can we benefit from application if we know this trading style also.i guess there are many ways traders think and trade but this is very understanding to me as i am (was) one of the above.
  • #628
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:06am Jun 11, 2014 8:06am
The 2 Hour is currently in control of price action on the market (see chart below).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 11-06-2014 (Control - 2 Hour).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #629
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:20am Jun 11, 2014 8:20am
Jack:

Based upon recent levels.... I'd like to go short if Price retraces to the 1264.40 on the 8H with nearest demand on the 2 HR ( per your post) at 1260.76

My Entry would be 1264.40 Target Price would be 1261 ( 2 HR Demand) and stop would be1267.50 (above 8HR Supply) I wouldn't take this trade because it's a 1:1 Risk / Reward ( basically a coin flip!)
  • #630
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:27am Jun 11, 2014 8:27am
Quoting gtimko1012
Jack: Based upon recent levels.... I'd like to go short if Price retraces to the 1264.40 on the 8H with nearest demand on the 2 HR ( per your post) at 1260.76 My Entry would be 1264.40 Target Price would be 1261 ( 2 HR Demand) and stop would be1267.50 (above 8HR Supply) I wouldn't take this trade because it's a 1:1 Risk / Reward ( basically a coin flip!)
Nice.

First, if you were to go short at 1264.40 (i.e. Long level on 8 Hour timeframe), you must place your Stop Loss somewhere above 1267.54 which is approx. 350 pips.

Your potential profit will be the difference between your entry and your take profit.

Your entry being @1264.40 and your Take Profit @1259.99 (remember slightly above this target, perhaps 100 pips or so), your reward is approx. 340 pips.

So you Risk 350 pips to potentially make 340 pips.

RR is approx. 1:1 ... not good. Stay out!

Just realized we're saying the same thing ... lol
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #631
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:28am Jun 11, 2014 8:28am
Greg, the R:R, in your case, has nothing to do with the probability of the trade's outcome, which is bearish by all accounts. The R:R only refers to your risk vs. the reward to be had. I know you know this but it seems in your post that you are confusing it with the trade's potential direction(which is bearish).
  • #632
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:37am Jun 11, 2014 8:37am
Quoting tripr
Greg, the R:R, in your case, has nothing to do with the probability of the trade's outcome, which is bearish by all accounts. The R:R only refers to your risk vs. the reward to be had. I know you know this but it seems in your post that you are confusing it with the trade's potential direction(which is bearish).
I guess the point is that you want to get in high reward/low risk trades.

Basically, you don't want to enter trades that have an RR of 1:1 ... Avoid at all costs.

Be selective, choose high profit trades and leave the other ones to other traders ...

Only a suggestion based on my own personal trading methodology/philosophy.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #633
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:47am Jun 11, 2014 8:47am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} I guess the point is that you want to get in high reward/low risk trades. Basically, you don't want to enter trades that have an RR of 1:1 ... Avoid at all costs. Be selective, choose high profit trades and leave the other ones to other traders ... Only a suggestion based on my own personal trading methodology/philosophy.
agree Jack. just thought he was confusing R:R with trade direction(bearish at the time). that's all.
  • #634
  • Jun 11, 2014 8:54am Jun 11, 2014 8:54am
Quoting tripr
{quote} agree Jack. just thought he was confusing R:R with trade direction(bearish at the time). that's all.
This morning, at best, we had a 2:1 trade based on the technical levels indicated on the 2 Hour timeframe (see Post #629 above).

You could have entered Short @1264.78 with a Stop Loss @1266.77 (slightly above of course) and Take Profit @1260.76 (slightly above).

In this case your Risk was a little over 200 pips and your reward was no more than 400 pips.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #635
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:03am Jun 11, 2014 9:03am
Perhaps the most important post of the day is Post #629.

It helps traders understand why the 2 Hour is in control of price action on the market and what they need to look for.

It is a good example of what I explained several times during the live commentary.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #636
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:33am Jun 11, 2014 9:33am
Quoting zarkon
totaly agree with you jack.only reson i re-post it was for the way it descibe the traders and how they could act and how can we benefit from application if we know this trading style also.i guess there are many ways traders think and trade but this is very understanding to me as i am (was) one of the above.
Thanks for posting it ... I also think it's a very good post!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #637
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:59am Jun 11, 2014 11:59am
hi jack...i have close family members visiting from abroad and will not be able to trade or attend live commentary until the end of june. so sorry to miss it all, hopefully i'll catch up. thanks and good trading
  • #638
  • Jun 11, 2014 12:08pm Jun 11, 2014 12:08pm
Quoting bubola
hi jack...i have close family members visiting from abroad and will not be able to trade or attend live commentary until the end of june. so sorry to miss it all, hopefully i'll catch up. thanks and good trading
Not a problem.

Enjoy time with your family !
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #639
  • Jun 11, 2014 9:22pm Jun 11, 2014 9:22pm
Financial Instrument Analyzer : Important update

First off, I wish to thank all who have provided valuable suggestions on how to improve the application.

By end of summer, the application will contain two major new features:

(1) will identify reference timeframe (i.e. timeframe in control of price action),
(2) will calculate Risk Reward Ratio.

Enjoy.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #640
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:14pm Jun 11, 2014 11:14pm
Quoting jackeollio
Financial Instrument Analyzer : Important update First off, I wish to thank all who have provided valuable suggestions on how to improve the application. By end of summer, the application will contain two major new features: (1) will identify reference timeframe (i.e. timeframe in control of price action), (2) will calculate Risk Reward Ratio. Enjoy.
What are we suppose to do if application does that also?
Good job Jackeollio .Thank you again for your time .
15 traders viewing now