Cycle Trading

After all of that time off I had to go back and try and find my notes. Apparently I dialed in resolving time frames more accurately. Anywho, below are the forecasts for the week and how they've played out so far. 6 min. chart and a 36 min. chart. I was away most of the weekend and had to play catch up yesterday so haven't traded this week yet.

I have found Exacto-Chart-ScaleTM technique (LOL!).
Those of you who might need or want technique to scale the chart (for squaring the chart, i.e.), please see attached pdf file. Although, JR has told us there is no such need actually.
This technique might not work on other screen resolutions, but I do believe this to be NOT so.

So, up to this post astute readers have found out that JR uses one number for his WiggyIndicator, he also uses helio synodic cycle, and probably there is some Merlin formulae involved too.
The question arises, can you, dear JR, SAVE us from burden of guessing which synodic cycle it is that you use? Or perhaps there is more than one synodic cycle involved? It might perhaps just be that even more planets are involved in this one synodic cycle?

If there would be a good soul to write SketchUp plugin for importing Excel market data into SketchUp, we might as well see the depth of the market in 3D?

May Pips be with you,

Simon

good effort but there is a little bit more to it!

every market has a unique blueprint. thats all i can say

Totally missed this post. I don't use helio synodic in the wiggly. The pc that had all of my work including the astro stuff died a while back so I don't have any astro tips to share.

But really, my synodic work was very simple. Measure the synodic distance between cycle points.. doesn't matter whether h-l, l-l, h-h, etc... then apply that measurement to other high/lows.

Anywho, losing all of my work was somewhat of a blessing. I spend less time screwing around trying to solve the secrets of the universe and applying them to markets and spend more time with the people in my life. In the end I realized how little of my work really mattered in my trading since my trading decisions revolve around mm and maintaining positive r:r.

Most of my focus these days is just simple NADEX daily binary options catching the average daily range. Capped risk and using limit to exit orders results in an easy set and forget process.

I'm sure the bug will bite again to start digging deeper but right now its jut not important. It never really was. It was just something to keep me interested in trading since I tend to get burned out and bored with it pretty easily.

Exactly. The way I described it to someone is that every market is basically like a planet itself. It's orbital speed, orbital eccentricity, atmosphere, atmospheric pressure, rotational speed, etc. can all be figured out and then predictable. Actually, I prefer forecastable.

Oh.... and about the chart scaling... My gann square methods unifies price and time mathematically rather trying to set a scaling ratio so therefore chart scaling isn't needed other than of aesthetic purposes. But for methods that keep price and time separate (ie just about all of them) then chart scaling is key. That method looks interesting although cumbersome.

Totally know what you mean.
Thank you for your reply. The Exacto-Chart-Scaling method does looks cumbersome, at first, but when you master the procedure, it becomes very easy.

Best regards,

Simon

Let's revive this thread folks!

haha. Yeah, I can probably start posting in here again. I've been away from trading for a while. Been back at it for the last month or so. Focused on Nadex options. Mostly OTM binaries. Made pretty good on the S&P the last few days.

MT4 has changed enough that most of my scripts don't work anymore. Been trading naked and price action.

XAU

That's sexy.

From earlier tonight. Sold a Nadex US500 spread right near the ceiling on negative osci divergence and price stalling on the angle line and getting ready to follow the next angle line. Initial target is the red 1x1 (highlighted with yellow). Overall target is the bottom of the red box which is the option floor. 39 points away... which is also the 20 day ADR. The green box is the upper spread which I bought as a hedge. $70 max risk on which I close at -$50 once the move was underway. To make up some of the hedge loss I've got a cheap OTM binary. That will eat up $25 of the hedge loss.

I don't think the red 1x1 is going to hold. Price is coming down off of the Daily 50 MA , 46 Day 1st deviation and 23 day 2nd deviation. Reversion to the mean....

A little more detail and some insight into how I see and use the Gann Square.... I highlighted the trapezoid price played in as it gravitated towards the angle lines. The 1 x 1 is where price and time balance and is always a strong target and ends up being a trend line out of the blue more often than not. I expect price to bounce off of the 1x1 and possibly retrace a bit. The red vertical is the next division time line. If price rises into that, I expect that to be a reversal for a strong push down. If price falls into it, then it'll be where price rallies for a bit. Either way, I'm short and in decent profit and there's still 4 hrs and 10 minutes til the options expire at the white vertical. The red vertical right of that is where a few of the blue angle lines intersect.



Here are a couple of vids I did years ago going over some of the methods. Enjoy them while they last.

http://www.screencast.com/users/JR97...e-c12df0f2ec32
http://www.screencast.com/users/JR97...6-f74bacd744e9

JR97.... The Annunaki came a calling this evenig questioning your whereabouts,,,,, its OK though... told them your just a figment of my imagination ... thx for sharing the madness behind your lines

Looks like that 1x1 line held pretty well. B/E on the short. -40 loss on the first hedge. -25 loss on the binary short. Check out how price went straight to the top of the yellow box? That's my daily range box. 8 times out of 10 price is snug in it.

3 day weekend coming up for me and I'm hoping to dig out the fancy wavy line forecast again. I had been doing it in Wave59 but I"m not going to subscribe for that service. I've got parts of it programmed into MT4, but MT4 flat out sucks for drawing things out the right side of the chart. Plus the scaling is different to the right. How dumb is that?

The prototype is in Excel but a bit cumbersome with getting data in and charting. I've done some pretty intricate charting apps based on Excel in the past but was hoping not to have to go that route. I've also done a pretty robust web chart platform with php and a charting library. I may just go that route.

No news Friday. Should be small a range. Currently have a Nadex Binary Iron Butterfly in play. Risk is 30. Reward is 70. Probability of winning is 70%. R:R just over 2:1. I'll have more analysis recap later.

I had also added a directional hedge via a Spread Option. Since price was showing a downward bias via 3 drives to the top and negative oscillator divergence, I took the opportunity to get a spread option when price was near the option ceiling. Doing so skews the r:r a bit but here are the outcome possibilities:


1) Price finishes below the box: Binary loss of (-29) + Minimum profit of spread of +48 = minimum profit of +19.
2) Price finished above the box: Binary loss of (-31) + Max spread loss of -72 = total loss of -105.
3) Price finishes in the box below spread B/E: Binary profits = 71 + Spread results. Max spread profit of +48 = Minimum profit 71 and Max profit of 119
4) Price finishes in the box above spread B/E: Binary profits = 71 - Spread results. Max spread loss of -52 = Minimum Profit +19.

3 out of 4 profitable conditions. But the 1 unprofitable condition is a doozy but highly unlikely at this point. However, there is a 1 condition with a max profit bigger than the max loss condition. Which is much more likely at this point.

The max profit would be +339 if price dropped below the box and hit the spread floor. Highly unlikely, but dropping out of the box is still profitable none the less.

Currently just under an hour til expirations. Price is in the box and below the spread b/e.

Price finished in the box but above the spread b/e. In that last one.

Current trades. 1st yellow arrow was from last night. Shorted with a Daily ATM Binary and a Weekly OTM Binary on the square midline vert and top of the square. Trailing stop triggered on the ATM. Got in again off of the bounce. Holding that one out targeting the yellow area marked off on the red 1x1.

The 3rd arrow is my current Nadex Spread. Shorted the Daily 1950-1990 at 1994 which was OTM for max risk of $45 on $355 potential profit. The Red rectangle marks off the spread which corners out at the red 1x1 line. I'm hedging with an OTM 2010 strike for $16. Take profit on that set to $50 which would pay out $34 knocking the loss on the Spread down to $11. $16 is easy enough to eat if the spread goes down my way. Nadex spreads and binaries are great for legging in and out of negative positions at low risk to get potential losses down to tiny sizes and sometimes even in to profit.

Not a whole lot of action the S&P after yesterday's run up. Even the news was meh. Which is what I was hoping for. Slow friday's are great for non-directional options plays. This morning I did an Iron Condor on with a set of 2hr Nadex Spreads. Now I'm in an Iron Butterfly.

Iron Condors are premium collection plays where you sell an ITM upper spread and buy an ITM lower spread. The difference between your entries is where you want price contained. The closer to the midline the better as that is the max profit area.

In this one, I sold the 2020-2030 for 2022.7. Which means I sold it where price needs to be below 2022 to make money but my profit is capped at $27 per contract if price drops below the box floor of 2022.

I bought the 2010-2020 for 2016.7. Max profit on that one is $33 per. Then it's just a matter of tug of war and hope price ends up near the middle and you collect whatever premium there is in relation to price at expiration. Price finished near 2019. So the upper paid out max of $27 and the lower paid out $23 for a total $50 per on about $10 risk. The caveat of ITM is that you have to up a hefty amount of margin. You're basically putting up collateral to collect premiums.




Iron Butterflies are also premium collection plays where you sell an ITM upper binary and buy an ITM lower binary. Binaries at Nadex are all or nothing at expiration. If you're correct, you collect $100 minus the premium paid. If you're not correct, you lose the premium you paid. With ITM binaries, you're getting negative R:R but on the flip side you're paying extra for probability and time decay. However, if you sandwhich price in between two ITM binaries, you can get positive R:R as long as the premium you put up is greater than 100. ie sold the upper for $30 or more and bought the lower for $70 or more. If both win, you collect $100 minus premium paid. Below is a breakdown of how it pays it and end up as positive R:R.



I got in on the upper at $34 and the lower at $72. Max risk is -$38 and profit is $62 per set for a 1.6:1 ratio. Not quite 2:1 but positive R:R none the less. I can also exit if price gets outside the box and instead of taking the full loss on the losing side, take a partial loss and the R:R goes up substantially. Iron Butterflies are great and it only takes a few a week to really drive the account. I try and leg in using all of my timing techniques to get the best prices. I wasn't planning on doing the butterfly today because I had the condor on, but once that one settled, I figured why not. So I got in a bit late but still got prices good enough to put me in positive r:r.