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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #581
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:22am Jun 5, 2014 8:22am
[quote=tripr;7515286]
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} it may have looked the same on the ltf's but not on the 4h, 8h and day. i guess the mkt is dead now, everything is gray and neutral...kills me. hopefully crude keeps pushing down...been short since yesterday.
For Crude, you should prepare to take your profit as the market approaches the Demand Level @100.63 on the Week.

Perhaps @101.00 or 101.50.

If the market manages to successfully breach that level, you could then decide to re-enter short once the application reports the new technical levels.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #582
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:28am Jun 5, 2014 8:28am
[quote=jackeollio;7515328]
Quoting tripr
{quote} For Crude, you should prepare to take your profit as the market approaches the Demand Level @100.63 on the Week. Perhaps @101.00 or 101.50. If the market manages to successfully breach that level, you could then decide to re-enter short once the application reports the new technical levels.
may not get there today but am watching for that for sure. may try to add on if can get to a retracement level.
  • #583
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:31am Jun 5, 2014 8:31am
[quote=tripr;7515358]
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} may not get there today but am watching for that for sure. may try to add on if can get to a retracement level.
On the Day, we have a Retracement Level @102.82.

We must now wait to see if the technical levels on the lower timeframes (i.e. 4 Hour and 8 Hour) will maintain bearish pressure below that level.

We must wait for these timeframes to refresh for the application to provide us with fresh new technical levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tripr post 581.PNG Size: 76 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #584
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:35am Jun 5, 2014 8:35am
[quote=jackeollio;7515376]
Quoting tripr
{quote} On the Day, we have a Retracement Level @102.82. We must now wait to see if the technical levels on the lower timeframes (i.e. 4 Hour and 8 Hour) will maintain bearish pressure below that level. We must wait for these timeframes to refresh for the application to provide us with fresh new technical levels. {image}

no way i'm letting it go back to 102.82. guess we got to wait on the 12:00 reset to see if can add more.
  • #585
  • Jun 5, 2014 8:41am Jun 5, 2014 8:41am
[quote=tripr;7515396]
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} no way i'm letting it go back to 102.82. guess we got to wait on the 12:00 reset to see if can add more.
Agree. Since the lowest timeframe is the 4 Hour, we must at least wait until the 4 Hour resets itself at 12:00 EST (UTC-5:00).

Should the application report Bullish pressure, you have two options:

(1) take your profit and wait for the retracement to complete and then plan to re-enter short (if appropriate),

(2) protect you profit by opening a trade in opposite direction (i.e. Long) and wait for the market to return bearish. You now take your profit on your Long trade and wait for the bearish move to complete (i.e. set your take profit on your original Short trade based on new technical levels - Demand Level).

(3) given (2), you might want to use linear scaling (or any other scaling technique) to add to your position as market resumes short.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #586
  • Jun 5, 2014 10:25am Jun 5, 2014 10:25am
Quoting jackeollio
Quoting tripr
{quote} Agree. Since the lowest timeframe is the 4 Hour, we must at least wait until the 4 Hour resets itself at 12:00 EST (UTC-5:00). Should the application report Bullish pressure, you have two options: (1) take your profit and wait for the retracement to complete and then plan to re-enter short (if appropriate), (2) protect you profit by opening a trade in opposite direction (i.e. Long) and wait for the market to return bearish. You now take your profit on your Long trade and wait for the bearish move to complete (i.e. set
...
should've taken the profit down there at 1270 area...shoulda,woulda,couda. gave some back.
  • #587
  • Jun 5, 2014 12:35pm Jun 5, 2014 12:35pm
no audio jack!!!
  • #588
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:36pm Jun 5, 2014 1:36pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade561.jpg Size: 48 KB
  • #589
  • Jun 5, 2014 1:41pm Jun 5, 2014 1:41pm
4h long price and demand and 8Hlong price and day LONG price are all very close .then i look for 8H and Day are in neutral and not telling me anything.so basicly i need to wait lower frame
but since 4H is in charge but is out of energy and weekly tells me over SHORT is bullish and will not give up with out fight i come to summaries all and say price will come close to 1247-1248 as retrace and go up.target is still weekly 1262

PLEASE this is not to be followed.only for education reasons
  • #590
  • Jun 5, 2014 2:44pm Jun 5, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting zarkon
4h long price and demand and 8Hlong price and day LONG price are all very close .then i look for 8H and Day are in neutral and not telling me anything.so basicly i need to wait lower frame but since 4H is in charge but is out of energy and weekly tells me over SHORT is bullish and will not give up with out fight i come to summaries all and say price will come close to 1247-1248 as retrace and go up.target is still weekly 1262 PLEASE this is not to be followed.only for education reasons

See my comment on Chart #7 above.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #591
  • Jun 5, 2014 2:45pm Jun 5, 2014 2:45pm
1252.88 doesnt want to break .is this lvl shown anywhere lower tf?
  • #592
  • Jun 5, 2014 2:51pm Jun 5, 2014 2:51pm
Quoting zarkon
1252.88 doesnt want to break .is this lvl shown anywhere lower tf?
Good observation, see chart below ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zarkon post 592.PNG Size: 27 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #593
  • Edited 6:32pm Jun 5, 2014 6:10pm | Edited 6:32pm
Jack,

what are your thoughts on this scenario and how can the 8h be in consolidation(is this a misprint ?) ? also, how would you play this, if at all ?




http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1402010196
  • #594
  • Edited 6:45pm Jun 5, 2014 6:34pm | Edited 6:45pm
Quoting tripr
Jack, what are your thoughts on this scenario and how can the 8h be in consolidation(is this a misprint ?) ? also, how would you play this, if at all ? http://prntscr.com/3q1sef
I know I'm suppose to do this the other way around but allow me to start with the 4 Hour timeframe;

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 103.08 and 102.17. This implies that price action on the higher timeframe (all higher timeframes but more specifically the 8 Hour timeframe) is also limited by the upper and lower boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone on the 4 Hour (do you agree?).

So basically, we need to wait for the application to report Direction/Pressure as well as Supply and Demand Levels on the 4 Hour timeframe before we can figure out a strategy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tripr post 594.PNG Size: 80 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #595
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:06am Jun 6, 2014 5:06am
hi jack...is it possible to add (or substitute) eur/usd to the demo pairs? thanks
  • #596
  • Edited 5:38am Jun 6, 2014 5:19am | Edited 5:38am
Quoting bubola
hi jack...is it possible to add (or substitute) eur/usd to the demo pairs? thanks
Thanks for your suggestion.

Next week, traders will have access to the following two pairs - EURUSD and GBPUSD.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #597
  • Edited 2:21pm Jun 6, 2014 5:20am | Edited 2:21pm
Friday June 6, 2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Ollio's Live Commentary - Gold, Crude Oil, GBPCHF, USDJPY

Starts : 13:15 EST (UTC-5:00)
Ends : 14:30 EST (UTC-5:00)

Link : Please note, there will be no live commentary today.

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1254.59, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level 1254.59.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1263.46. The market returns Bearish below 1253.08 and Bullish above 1263.46.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1252.51. The market returns Bullish above 1255.67 and Bearish below 1252.51.
On the Week, the market is Bullish above 1243.58 with Supply @1262.55.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1254.40.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1253.08 with Demand @1242.24.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1252.51 with Demand @1249.38.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1253.02 with Supply @1255.07.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1254.68 with Demand @1251.17.
On the Day, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1254.31 and 1252.51.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1255.22 and 1253.02. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1255.22 and momentarily Bearish below 1253.02.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1254.90, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1254.90.
On the Day, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1254.31 and 1253.27.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1255.44 and 1247.24.
On the 8 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1249.12.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1248.77, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1248.77.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #6 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1249.74 with Supply @1254.48.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1258.60. The market returns Bearish below 1249.12.
On the Day, the market is Neutral between 1253.49 and 1248.77.
The Week remains unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 06-06-2014 (75-1).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 06-06-2014 (75-2).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 06-06-2014 (75-3).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 06-06-2014 (75-4).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 06-06-2014 (75-5).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 06-06-2014 (75-6).PNG Size: 27 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #598
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:50am Jun 6, 2014 5:50am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Thanks for your suggestion. Next week, traders will have access to the following two pairs - EURUSD and GBPUSD.
perfect, thanks
  • #599
  • Jun 6, 2014 6:00am Jun 6, 2014 6:00am
the day has reversed to bearish, are we now looking for shorts or just wait until 8:00 reset ?
  • #600
  • Jun 6, 2014 6:06am Jun 6, 2014 6:06am
Quoting tripr
the day has reversed to bearish, are we now looking for shorts or just wait until 8:00 reset ?
The Day is bearish below 1252.51 with Demand @1249.38 (see Chart #2 above).

The close proximity of the Demand level on the Day suggests that we should wait for the market to breach this level.

If it does, we would then plan our short entry based on the retracement level.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
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