Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand | Page 26 | Metals Mine

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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #501
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:11am Jun 3, 2014 6:11am
so basically it indicates which side is in control, and it can be used to stenghten bullish/bearish bias as indicated by left column, correct?
  • #502
  • Edited 6:37am Jun 3, 2014 6:20am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting bubola
so basically it indicates which side is in control, and it can be used to stenghten bullish/bearish bias as indicated by left column, correct?
Correct, these indicators show who is in control of the market.

More importantly though, they are used to perform other types of calculations and validations with respect to various trading strategies. These other calculations and validations are not shown in the Demo version of the application.

That being said, I would caution you not to use this information to qualify the strength of the momentum on either side, being Bearish or Bullish.

You should always use the leftmost column to determine market Direction/Pressure. To determine the market Direction/ Pressure, the application performs many more calculations than that which is reflected by the indicators in the Supply and Demand column.

In fact, in some cases you will see that these columns are seemingly in opposite directions. Whenever that is the case, you must exercise CAUTION and wait before entering the market. You must always "trust" the leftmost column for market Direction/Pressure, not the indicators in the Supply and Demand column (i.e. Market Column).

We will further discuss this very important point in the Live Commentary today.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #503
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:29am Jun 3, 2014 6:29am
thank you.
  • #504
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:08am Jun 3, 2014 7:08am
current situation: h4 and h8 in passive consolidation. since my strategy is to scalp in direction of these 2 TF , my plan would be to fade the boundaries UNLESS a clear direction emerges.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.PNG Size: 137 KB
  • #505
  • Jun 3, 2014 7:20am Jun 3, 2014 7:20am
Quoting bubola
current situation: h4 and h8 in passive consolidation. since my strategy is to scalp in direction of these 2 TF , my plan would be to fade the boundaries UNLESS a clear direction emerges. {image}
Great plan.

Before we attempt to enter the market, we must:

(1) wait for the application to report market Direction/Pressure on both the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes,

(2) wait for the application to report Supply and Demand levels on both the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #506
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:11am Jun 3, 2014 8:11am
Jack:

4H and 8 H at 9:07 EST have bearish pressure below 1244.56 4H and 1245.51 8H respectively... It appears that we could take a short as price retraces back into this price area ( 1244.50 to 1244.50) with a target price of 1242.15 on the 4H and 1243.39 on the 8H.

The Stop is slightly above the Supply at 1247.42 8H and 1248.66 on the 4 H. Risk / Reward is not good.

Am I thinking through this in a logical format ??
  • #507
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:12am Jun 3, 2014 8:12am
The retracement area should read 1244.50 to 1245.50
  • #508
  • Edited 8:48am Jun 3, 2014 8:14am | Edited 8:48am
Quoting gtimko1012
Jack: 4H and 8 H at 9:07 EST have bearish pressure below 1244.56 4H and 1245.51 8H respectively... It appears that we could take a short as price retraces back into this price area ( 1244.50 to 1244.50) with a target price of 1242.15 on the 4H and 1243.39 on the 8H. The Stop is slightly above the Supply at 1247.42 8H and 1248.66 on the 4 H. Risk / Reward is not good. Am I thinking through this in a logical format ??
Excellent reasoning (i.e. Entry, Stop Loss and Take Profit).

Most importantly, your observation that the RR for this trade is not sufficient to warrant en entry.

We now need to see the market breach through the Demand levels on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes and then reassess our decision based on new technical levels.

Notice now that we have a reversal on the Day timeframe (see Chart #3 above). On the Week, the market has entered the Passive Consolidation Zone as it is now below the Short Level @1244.04 potentially heading towards 1231.57.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #509
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:37am Jun 3, 2014 8:37am
that's exactly what i'm banking on Jack.

potentially this is a 13:1 R:R trade. hope it pans out that way(no pun intended) ha !
  • #510
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:38am Jun 3, 2014 8:38am
Quoting tripr
that's exactly what i'm banking on Jack.
Excellent !!

Don't forget that should the market reach the Long level @1231.57 on the Week, the application tells us that we should expect the market to resume Long from there.

Technically for us, that means we are expecting the Day to turn Bullish somewhere close to the Long Level or in between the Long Level and the Demand Level on the Week. Otherwise, we would remain Short.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #511
  • Jun 3, 2014 8:58am Jun 3, 2014 8:58am
Notice that we have a level of residual Demand @1242.19 on the 4 Hour timeframe (see Chart #4 above) which the Suppliers, so far, have failed to breach.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #512
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:05am Jun 3, 2014 9:05am
So from Post # 512 if Price breaks 1242.19 ( Then Demand is gone; and the Elevator is going down ??)

What strategy would we utilize to get on the elevator? Wait for a retracement back ( Well it just broke demand)
  • #513
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:05am Jun 3, 2014 9:05am
yes, been watching that jack. if can break that area, the move down should get some wheels.

it is now a gray day. sad
  • #514
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:09am Jun 3, 2014 9:09am
Quoting gtimko1012
So from Post # 512 if Price breaks 1242.19 ( Then Demand is gone; and the Elevator is going down ??) What strategy would we utilize to get on the elevator? Wait for a retracement back ( Well it just broke demand)
See Chart #5 above for technical levels.

Careful choppy market ahead.

Retracement Levels on 4 Hour, 8 Hour and Day timeframes are at around 1243.00.

Below are the technical levels on the 30 Min, 1 Hour and 2 Hour timeframes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 03-06-2014 (Complementary).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #515
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:18am Jun 3, 2014 9:18am
let us hope the 1243 level or so holds otherwise could mean its going up.
  • #516
  • Edited 9:32am Jun 3, 2014 9:18am | Edited 9:32am
Quoting tripr
let us hope the 1243 level or so holds otherwise could mean its going up.
Or that the market may remain in a choppy mode for a while.

Notice that we now have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1242.31 on the 30 Min and Bullish above 1241.05 on the 1 Hour which translates into a tight range also referred to as a choppy market.

However, it is only expected to last 5 more minutes since we will have a new candlestick at 10:30 on the 30 Min timeframe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 03-06-2014 (Complementary #2).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #517
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:34am Jun 3, 2014 9:34am
tight ranges are good for breakouts and when it does breakout, it should get interesting.

it just took out 1hr demand(on the futures anyway).
  • #518
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:35am Jun 3, 2014 9:35am
Quoting tripr
tight ranges are good for breakouts and when it does breakout, it should get interesting.
Agree.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #519
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:40am Jun 3, 2014 9:40am
Quoting tripr
tight ranges are good for breakouts and when it does breakout, it should get interesting. it just took out 1hr demand(on the futures anyway).
Agree. However, as indicated on the 1 Hour timeframe, traders were still willing to go Long as low as @1240.27 (see Chart on post #517 above).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #520
  • Jun 3, 2014 9:43am Jun 3, 2014 9:43am
went right to that number and reversed ! i'm hoping 1hr supply turns 'em back down, which just got hit.
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