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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #441
  • May 28, 2014 10:52am May 28, 2014 10:52am
aussie has hard time going lower.will keep an eye .may change to upward in the next 4h or 8h frame.so far is bearish just to be clear.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #442
  • May 28, 2014 10:55am May 28, 2014 10:55am
Quoting zarkon
aussie has hard time going lower.will keep an eye .may change to upward in the next 4h or 8h frame.so far is bearish just to be clear. {image}
Yes, remember that the Week holds a Bullish Bias above 0.92110 (i.e Long Level).

So, if your trading plan was to go Long on the Week, you should wait for the Day to turn Bullish.

If the Day does not turn Bullish (if the Day remains Bearish for every other day of the week), that would imply that the Week is turning Bearish below 0.92110. In which case, you should expect the market to move lower towards the Demand Level @0.91961.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #443
  • May 28, 2014 11:04am May 28, 2014 11:04am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Yes, remember that the Week holds a Bullish Bias above 0.92110 (i.e Long Level). So, if your trading plan was to go Long on the Week, you should wait for the Day to turn Bullish. If the Day does not turn Bullish (if the Day remains Bearish for every other day of the week), that would imply that the Week is turning Bearish below 0.92110. In which case, you should expect the market to move lower towards the Demand Level @0.91961.
  • #444
  • May 29, 2014 1:25am May 29, 2014 1:25am
i miss long on aussie.but i did add short on gold.short pending bellow 1252 and stop at 1263.take at 1228 from Dsupply.will adjust as it goes
based on 8H take 1 will be at 1244 .if it breaks i will go for take 2 at 1228 - 1230 on day.
If doesnt break 1252 then i wait for retest or else price move to north to test 1260 lvls etc
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #445
  • Edited 5:05am May 29, 2014 1:42am | Edited 5:05am
if price goes into 8H trade limits for long and shorts then i see sell presure and if breaks 8H demand then next lvl is 1220 area.
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  • #446
  • May 29, 2014 1:46am May 29, 2014 1:46am
sell limit at 170.200 and sell stop at 169 .wait and adjust
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  • #447
  • May 29, 2014 4:44am May 29, 2014 4:44am
closed all trades with small profit.waiting for direction as all are in consolidation
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  • #448
  • Edited 7:21pm May 29, 2014 5:05am | Edited 7:21pm
Thursday May 29, 2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Ollio's Live Commentary - Gold, Crude Oil, AUDUSD, GBPJPY

Starts : 13:15 EST (UTC-5:00)
Ends : 14:30 EST (UTC-5:00)

Link : http://bbbwebinar1.cloudapp.net/bigb...May+29%2C+2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1254.27 and 1253.42.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1251.34 with Supply @1262.46.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1230.88. The market returns Bullish above 1253.92 and Bearish below 1230.88.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1268.94.

Chart #2

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1254.06 on the 4 Hour and Bullish above 1251.34 on the 8 Hour.
On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1254.06 with Demand @1251.09.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1251.34 with Supply @1262.46.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1248.21. The market returns Bullish above 1253.50 and Bearish below 1248.21.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1252.88 with Demand @1250.64.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1253.50 with Supply @1259.94.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1254.18, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1254.18.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1253.50 with Supply @1259.94.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1255.56 and 1254.18. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1255.56 and momentarily Bearish below 1254.18.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1253.92 with Supply @1282.72.
On the Week, we have a new Retracement Level @1268.94.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1253.90, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1253.90.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1258.57 and 1254.18. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1258.57 and momentarily Bearish below 1254.18.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #7

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1257.36 with Demand @1252.52.
The 8 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #8 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1256.56 with Supply @1258.79.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1259.98. The market returns Bearish below 1255.32 and Bullish above 1259.98.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 29-05-2014 (69-4).PNG Size: 25 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 29-05-2014 (69-6).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 29-05-2014 (69-7).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 29-05-2014 (69-8).PNG Size: 27 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #449
  • Edited 6:13am May 29, 2014 5:41am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting zarkon
i miss long on aussie.but i did add short on gold.short pending bellow 1252 and stop at 1263.take at 1228 from Dsupply.will adjust as it goes based on 8H take 1 will be at 1244 .if it breaks i will go for take 2 at 1228 - 1230 on day. If doesnt break 1252 then i wait for retest or else price move to north to test 1260 lvls etc {image}
For Gold, your pending short entry may have been slightly premature given the configuration and technical levels being reported by the application at that time. Technically, you should have waited for the 4 Hour and 8 Hour to turn Bearish before deciding on where to place your pending short entry on this instrument.

The Day timeframe on the Gold chart suggests that buyers are likely to show up somewhere above the Long Level @1230.88 or somewhere between the Long Level @1230.88 and the Demand Level @1228.13.

At the moment, if you are looking for an opportunity to go short, you should be waiting for the application to report Bearish momentum on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour.

However, do not forget that buyers are likely to show up in the 1230.88 area as per the Day timeframe.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #450
  • May 29, 2014 6:27am May 29, 2014 6:27am
so, the play today is to get long between 1253.92 and 1230.88 based on day chart, when 8h confirms as it stands now. could change though when charts reset at 8:00.
  • #451
  • May 29, 2014 6:36am May 29, 2014 6:36am
Quoting tripr
so, the play today is to get long between 1253.92 and 1230.88 based on day chart, when 8h confirms as it stands now. could change though when charts reset at 8:00.
The play for today depends on the configuration on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes. You would NOT go Long based on the configuration on the Day unless the 8 Hour was Bullish (remember, you always need at least 2 consecutive timeframes in agreement on the direction of the market).

Obviously, the configuration suggest to go short but we should not pre-empt the market and set our take profit somewhere near the Long level on the Day.

We need to wait for the application to report the technical levels on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour which at the moment indicate that the market is an Active Consolidation Zone (market is both Long and Short in a tight range).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #452
  • May 29, 2014 6:42am May 29, 2014 6:42am
Hi Jack,

Great thread. Will the link to the live commentary today show up in your previous post a little later?
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #453
  • Edited 8:12am May 29, 2014 6:43am | Edited 8:12am
Quoting hoss
Hi Jack, Great thread. Will the link to the live commentary today show up in your previous post a little later?
Yes, the link to my live commentary will be posted shortly.

You are welcome to join.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #454
  • May 29, 2014 6:48am May 29, 2014 6:48am
currently the 8h and day are in agreement to the long side, correct ?
  • #455
  • Edited 8:11am May 29, 2014 6:58am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting tripr
currently the 8h and day are in agreement to the long side, correct ?
Correct.

Now look at the 4 Hour timeframe.

The team on the 4 Hour has managed to contain all efforts made by the team on the 8 Hour timeframe to increase the price of the instrument over that 8 Hour period.

So the 8 Hour may be in agreement with the Day, but the 4 Hour has clearly won the battle so far.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #456
  • May 29, 2014 7:03am May 29, 2014 7:03am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Yes, the link to my live commentary will be posted shortly. You are welcome to attend.
Great. I will be there. Thank you.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #457
  • May 29, 2014 8:15am May 29, 2014 8:15am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Correct. Now look at the 4 Hour timeframe. The team on the 4 Hour has managed to contain all efforts made by the team on the 8 Hour timeframe to increase the price of the instrument over that 8 Hour period. So the 8 Hour may be in agreement with the Day, but the 4 Hour has clearly won the battle so far.
Hi Jack, great thread! May I know in this case, what is the upside target if one is to go long? I cant see it fly much higher though Cheers
  • #458
  • May 29, 2014 8:28am May 29, 2014 8:28am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} Hi Jack, great thread! May I know in this case, what is the upside target if one is to go long? I cant see it fly much higher though Cheers
Chart #4 above clearly answers your question ...
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #459
  • May 29, 2014 8:39am May 29, 2014 8:39am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Chart #4 above clearly answers your question ...
Cool, 1259.94 that is Cheers dude
  • #460
  • May 29, 2014 8:45am May 29, 2014 8:45am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} Cool, 1259.94 that is Cheers dude
Good job.

Good to see you've been doing your homework despite being late on handing in your assignments.

Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
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