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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #401
  • May 27, 2014 5:32pm May 27, 2014 5:32pm
Quoting zarkon
supply on 8H is entrance .supply W is sl and tp is LONG on 4h. i said to reconsider on 4H reset.and did close pending. All are based on my post frame. on your 's post frame i am considering going long only after 8H frame reloads so can back up 4H frame. Also closed gold short. resist (DEMAND) on weekly is higher than 4H and 8H and is unlikely to breach it with out serious help from other frames. {image}
I agree with your decision to close your pending short trade on the Aussie.

For Gold, remember that the Week continues to maintain Bearish pressure below 1280.18 towards the Demand level @1262.46.

At this point, we still expect the market to breach the Demand Level on the Week. Caution: though we expect the market to be bearish tomorrow we should not pre-empt the market. Wait for the application to report the technical levels on the Day before considering a new entry short.

The 8 Hour timeframe indicates that the bullish retracement is unlikely to reach or move above the Supply level @1273.38.

That being said, the Day needs to reload before we know whether it will continue to push the market lower (i.e. Bearish). Assuming the Day tomorrow continues to read Bearish, the new Demand level on the Day will tell us what to expect (i.e. target).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #402
  • May 27, 2014 5:41pm May 27, 2014 5:41pm
after i close short on gold i consider long untill retrace lvls of 1270's and resume south way to W demand.reward is not worth it tho.but is good opportunity to reload shorts.So yes i agree with you and the above was my strategy up to now.
  • #403
  • May 27, 2014 5:49pm May 27, 2014 5:49pm
Quoting zarkon
after i close short on gold i consider long untill retrace lvls of 1270's and resume south way to W demand.reward is not worth it tho.but is good opportunity to reload shorts.So yes i agree with you and the above was my strategy up to now.
Great observation and I fully agree that we do not have good R:R to go long.

Better to wait for the opportunity to reload our short trades.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #404
  • Edited 1:43am May 28, 2014 1:31am | Edited 1:43am
enter 171.190 tp 171.050 sl 171.330 also notice the price on demo hasnt change . still show 171.32
it doesnt refresh .moved tp to 170.34
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp28sell.jpg Size: 49 KB
  • #405
  • May 28, 2014 1:45am May 28, 2014 1:45am
sell limit on 1265.49 sl 1270 tp 1247
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold28sell.jpg Size: 46 KB
  • #406
  • May 28, 2014 1:50am May 28, 2014 1:50am
buy limit at 0.92412 .may go a bit lower and have one more at 0.9220.then will reverse to upside.sorry 0.9233
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie28buy.jpg Size: 46 KB
  • #407
  • Edited 4:37am May 28, 2014 2:05am | Edited 4:37am
this sucks.it is so easy to trade now that i am loosing confidence.i am used to complex analisys and million indicators and billion suggestions.
pfff
Thank you Jacke for your app and the willing to give and share.

closed g/j and a/u . first for the reason of not refreshing and the second for bearish bias.will look for more trades later.gold is kinda on retrace .keeping an eye and in short trade.
dont follow this trades .are for education only.
  • #408
  • Edited 5:42pm May 28, 2014 5:08am | Edited 5:42pm
Wednesday May 28, 2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Ollio's Live Commentary - Gold, Crude Oil, AUDUSD, GBPJPY

Starts : 13:15 EST (UTC-5:00)
Ends : 14:30 EST (UTC-5:00)

Link : http://bbbwebinar1.cloudapp.net/bigb...May+28%2C+2014

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ -------------------------------

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1266.24 and 1264.79.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1260.56 with Supply @1279.88.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bullish above 1261.51, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1261.51.
On the Week, (1) the market is Bearish below 1278.35, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1278.35.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1266.24 with Supply @1267.88.
The 8 Hour is unchanged.
On the Day, we have a new Retracement Level @1261.84.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1265.25 with Demand @1262.10.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1264.25 with Demand @1261.06.
On the Day, we have a new Retracement Level @1261.93.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1266.45 and 1265.54.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1266.50 and 1264.54.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1266.00 with Demand @1262.88.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1265.00 with Demand @1261.84.
On the Day, we have a new Retracement Level @1262.07.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1263.99, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1263.99.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1264.04, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1264.04.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1259.08.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #7

On the 4 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1260.07.
On the 8 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1260.12.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1255.16.
On the Week, we have a new Retracement Level @1274.61.

Chart #8

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1256.85. The market returns Bullish above 1258.97 with Supply @1261.17.
On the 8 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1258.96.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1254.00.
On the Week, we have a new Retracement Level @1273.45.

Chart #9 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1260.71 and 1251.32.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1260.00 and 1257.01.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 28-05-2014 (68-2).PNG Size: 26 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 28-05-2014 (68-6).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 28-05-2014 (68-7).PNG Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 28-05-2014 (68-9).PNG Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 28-05-2014 (68-10).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 28-05-2014 (68-11).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 28-05-2014 (68-12).PNG Size: 25 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #409
  • May 28, 2014 5:34am May 28, 2014 5:34am
Quoting zarkon
sell limit on 1265.49 sl 1270 tp 1247 {image}
Given the configuration, we expect the market to retrace somewhere near 1278.35 which is the retracement level on the Week.

Also notice the Day is Bullish above 1260.263, the 8 Hour is Bullish above 1260.56 and the 4 Hour is Bullish above 1261.27.

All these suggest we should wait for the retracement to complete before we consider rentering Short.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #410
  • May 28, 2014 5:35am May 28, 2014 5:35am
Quoting zarkon
enter 171.190 tp 171.050 sl 171.330 also notice the price on demo hasnt change . still show 171.32 it doesnt refresh .moved tp to 170.34 {image}
I believe you did good on this trade and probably have exited in profit by now.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #411
  • May 28, 2014 5:41am May 28, 2014 5:41am
Quoting zarkon
buy limit at 0.92412 .may go a bit lower and have one more at 0.9220.then will reverse to upside.sorry 0.9233 {image}
Sorry, not sure I quite understand your levels on this one ... can you be more specific and clearly indicate the timeframe for each level ?
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #412
  • May 28, 2014 5:44am May 28, 2014 5:44am
Quoting zarkon
this sucks.it is so easy to trade now that i am loosing confidence.i am used to complex analisys and million indicators and billion suggestions. pfff Thank you Jacke for your app and the willing to give and share. closed g/j and a/u . first for the reason of not refreshing and the second for bearish bias.will look for more trades later.gold is kinda on retrace .keeping an eye and in short trade. dont follow this trades .are for education only.
Trading should always be easy although it will never be risk free.

If you can't teach your methodology to a 10 year old, you probably need a better one.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #413
  • May 28, 2014 5:50am May 28, 2014 5:50am
Quoting zarkon
buy limit at 0.92412 .may go a bit lower and have one more at 0.9220.then will reverse to upside.sorry 0.9233 {image}
on 8H demand was my base to plan.above there will be a long untill test the 0.92700 or 0.92800 or 0.92900 all the supply price lvls from 8h to W.
4H and day had no info so they could go either up or down.So was only 8H and W.weekly was bullish and 8H didnt want to go lower at that moment.
hope i explain.
  • #414
  • May 28, 2014 5:53am May 28, 2014 5:53am
on gold have a sell order waiting at 1277
  • #415
  • May 28, 2014 5:58am May 28, 2014 5:58am
Quoting zarkon
{quote} on 8H demand was my base to plan.above there will be a long untill test the 0.92700 or 0.92800 or 0.92900 all the supply price lvls from 8h to W. 4H and day had no info so they could go either up or down.So was only 8H and W.weekly was bullish and 8H didnt want to go lower at that moment. hope i explain.
Do not enter the market as per your plan for now (i.e. remove your pending order) ... we will discuss this trade setup at the Live Commentary this afternoon at 13:15.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #416
  • May 28, 2014 5:59am May 28, 2014 5:59am
Quoting zarkon
on gold have a sell order waiting at 1277
Excellent.

Remember to keep looking at the technical levels being reported by the application and adjust your pending order accordingly.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #417
  • May 28, 2014 7:06am May 28, 2014 7:06am
looks like gold's retracement may be over or has been lowered to new lower levels based on the chart reset at 8:00. what you think Jack ?
  • #418
  • Edited 7:35am May 28, 2014 7:18am | Edited 7:35am
Quoting tripr
looks like gold's retracement may be over or has been lowered to new lower levels based on the chart reset at 8:00. what you think Jack ?
Agree, this may well be the case.

However, before we can conclude to that effect, we need to see what the 8 Hour will yield in terms of technical levels, more specifically Supply and Demand. On the 8 Hour, the market is currently in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1268.09 and 1263.93.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #419
  • May 28, 2014 7:20am May 28, 2014 7:20am
you mean 1263.93 correct ? now 1264.25
  • #420
  • Edited 8:40am May 28, 2014 7:36am | Edited 8:40am
Quoting tripr
you mean 1263.93 correct ? now 1264.25

Yes, thanks.

We now have Demand @1262.10 on the 4 Hour and @1261.06 on the 8 Hour (see Chart #3 above).

We are looking for the market to take out these Demand levels (i.e. breach through both these levels) before we make any attempt to go Short.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
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