Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand | Page 16 | Metals Mine

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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #301
  • May 16, 2014 7:58am May 16, 2014 7:58am
looks like the 1294 area may be the next area to look at for a short, if one is looking to go short ?
  • #302
  • Edited 8:37am May 16, 2014 8:01am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting tripr
looks like the 1294 area may be the next area to look at for a short, if one is looking to go short ?
Absolutely correct, at this point if you do choose to enter the market Short, you would only do so as the market approaches the upper boundary of the Neutral Zone on the 8 Hour (i.e. the highest of the two upper boundaries of the Neutral zones on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour).

Alternatively, you could choose to enter Short at the lowest level indicated by the two Neutral zones, in this case the 4 Hour @1291.54 with a Stop Loss a little above the upper boundary of the Neutral zone on the 8 Hour @1294.25.

Similarly, the lower boundary of the Neutral Zone on a bearish move is always the best place to pull out of your Short trade or go Long (if you choose to do so).

You should only attempt these entries when you have at least two consecutive timeframes with Neutral zones confirming re-entry levels.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #303
  • May 16, 2014 8:07am May 16, 2014 8:07am
Jack:

With the 4HR and 8HR being neutral there is no bias ... is that correct? If that is correct ... I assume that means you may choose to go Long around 1288.56 with a target of 1294.25 and / or go short when price approaches 1294.25 with a target of 1288.56

In other words if I am correct : Neutral equals Range Bound price movement
  • #304
  • Edited 8:36am May 16, 2014 8:17am | Edited 8:36am
Quoting gtimko1012
Jack: With the 4HR and 8HR being neutral there is no bias ... is that correct? If that is correct ... I assume that means you may choose to go Long around 1288.56 with a target of 1294.25 and / or go short when price approaches 1294.25 with a target of 1288.56 In other words if I am correct : Neutral equals Range Bound price movement
Absolutely correct (sounds like the students are already better than the teacher)!! And it all happened overnight!!!

Perhaps it is time for me to retire ???!!!!???

lol

Both of your observations constitute a very key aspect of the methodology.

You are now able to tell when a Bearish or a Bullish move is about to END.

Now all you need is to understand the market signals to know when the move is about to BEGIN and when it is about to REVERSE (i.e. market reversals).

That's IT.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #305
  • May 16, 2014 8:24am May 16, 2014 8:24am
Jack:

PLEASE Don't retire !!

LOL


Thanks for your help
  • #306
  • May 16, 2014 8:28am May 16, 2014 8:28am
mkt. is petering out to the upside, will get short here and test the waters.
  • #307
  • May 16, 2014 8:40am May 16, 2014 8:40am
Quoting tripr
mkt. is petering out to the upside, will get short here and test the waters.

Sorry tripr, I missed this one as I was trying to update my posts.

I would be cautious (use a smaller than usual position size to minimize potential damage) of going Short on this one since the Long level on the Day is @1289.12. This suggests that the market may be ready to resume Long from that level.

In fact, because there is a Long level on the Day @1289.12, this is a great example of an opportunity to enter Long when the market re-enters through the lower boundary of the Neutral zone @1288.56 on the 8 Hour timeframe.

Hope I'm not too late for this one!! In case I am, I'll help you on the next one!!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #308
  • May 16, 2014 8:48am May 16, 2014 8:48am
yes agree Jack. i always go in with a small position at first then add if mkt. proves me correct. doubt i will be adding to this one unless things change quite a bit.
  • #309
  • May 16, 2014 8:51am May 16, 2014 8:51am
Quoting tripr
yes agree Jack. i always go in with a small position at first then add if mkt. proves me correct. doubt i will be adding to this one unless things change quite a bit.
Excellent plan!!!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #310
  • May 16, 2014 9:14am May 16, 2014 9:14am
Went Short at 1293.80

We'll see....
  • #311
  • May 16, 2014 9:14am May 16, 2014 9:14am
Quoting gtimko1012
Went Short at 1293.80 We'll see....
Good job !!!

I thought you had entered much lower.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #312
  • May 16, 2014 9:15am May 16, 2014 9:15am
No, I think that was Tripr
  • #313
  • May 16, 2014 9:16am May 16, 2014 9:16am
Quoting gtimko1012
No, I think that was Tripr
You are right.

Sorry, I'm a little confused.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #314
  • May 16, 2014 9:49am May 16, 2014 9:49am
well looks like the day is now bullish >1294.
  • #315
  • Edited 10:30am May 16, 2014 9:57am | Edited 10:30am
Quoting tripr
well looks like the day is now bullish >1294.
Agree. This is in fact a typical reversal signal (i.e. failure of the Neutral zone to contain the market within it's upper boundary) for a Bearish momentum.

It is a reversal signal because it is the highest level of both Neutral Zones.

It would not have been a reversal signal if the market had breached only the upper boundary of the Neutral Zone on the 4 Hour timeframe since it is lower than the one on the 8 Hour timeframe.

But since we are in a Neutral zone, remember that you should always read the market as being only momentarily Bullish above 1294.25 on the 8 Hour timeframe.

Which leads me to believe that the market will not sustain a push to the Supply level on the Day @1302.96 given that this is the last 8 hour period for the current day and week.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #316
  • May 16, 2014 9:58am May 16, 2014 9:58am
looks like we going up today. are you looking for longs now Jack ?
  • #317
  • May 16, 2014 10:11am May 16, 2014 10:11am
Quoting tripr
looks like we going up today. are you looking for longs now Jack ?
Not at all.

The way I interpret the market at the moment is that it is only momentarily Bullish above 1294.25 on the 8 Hour timeframe.

It will therefore not be able to push much higher than it already has.

If the market does push higher than the current high, it will soon return below the new upper boundary of the Neutral zone on the 8 Hour.

Also important to note is that the Day remains within the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1294.04 and 1289.12.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #318
  • May 16, 2014 10:11am May 16, 2014 10:11am
the mkt. can still go down from here, so shorts are still in the picture. guess you can tell i'm a little biased today ha. the day and 8 hr are no longer bullish though that can change quickly as well.
  • #319
  • Edited 10:32am May 16, 2014 10:15am | Edited 10:32am
Quoting tripr
the mkt. can still go down from here, so shorts are still in the picture. guess you can tell i'm a little biased today ha. the day and 8 hr are no longer bullish though that can change quickly as well.
I don't expect the market to be Bearish from here, no more than I expect it to be Bullish (i.e. I guess that means I am Neutral on Gold at the moment), but I do expect it to move slightly lower within it's current Neutral Zone on the 8 Hour.

The market should remain Neutral for the rest of the day. So at this point, I do not expect any significant change in market momentum either way.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #320
  • May 18, 2014 6:54pm May 18, 2014 6:54pm
Jack,

I tried to email you to join the live discussion group on Monday. The email came back to me two days now. Please provide other information so I can join in that discussion.

Thank you.
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