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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #281
  • May 15, 2014 7:41am May 15, 2014 7:41am
Quoting tripr
{quote} did we lose you Jack ?
No, why ???

Oh I see. I was out for about 20 minutes that's why I said I just got back.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #282
  • May 15, 2014 7:42am May 15, 2014 7:42am
the update on the 8 hr. bar remember ?
  • #283
  • May 15, 2014 7:44am May 15, 2014 7:44am
Quoting tripr
the update on the 8 hr. bar remember ?
Not sure what you're referring to.

Was I suppose to say anything about the bar on the 8 Hour timeframe ?
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #284
  • May 15, 2014 7:46am May 15, 2014 7:46am
what's your plan for today Jack ?
  • #285
  • Edited 8:21am May 15, 2014 7:52am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting tripr
what's your plan for today Jack ?
On the latest chart (see Chart #5 above), the market has entered the Neutral Zone between 1303.54 and 1292.43. This suggests that the market has potentially completed it's move to the downside. If it does resume to the downside within the next 4 hours it will only be briefly or "momentarily" to either :

1) confirm the actual low @1290.81, or

2) establish a new low and then return back into the Neutral zone. If the market does manage to establish a new low, it will re-enter the Neutral zone with a slightly lower re-entry level.

Accordingly, I do not expect any significant move lower within the next 4 hours or until 12:00 EST (UTC-5:00).

Notice that the Short level on the 8 Hour @1300.58 is practically the same as the Retracement Level on the Day @1299.73.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #286
  • May 15, 2014 7:58am May 15, 2014 7:58am
so how are you planning on trading this today ?
  • #287
  • May 15, 2014 8:01am May 15, 2014 8:01am
Quoting tripr
so how are you planning on trading this today ?
Does my previous answer help you ?
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #288
  • May 15, 2014 8:07am May 15, 2014 8:07am
it is helpful but does not tell me how you are trading your system. that's what i'm trying to understand...what you are thinking and how you are reacting to the ever changing #'s. what are you looking to do and why ?
  • #289
  • May 15, 2014 8:12am May 15, 2014 8:12am
Quoting tripr
it is helpful but does not tell me how you are trading your system. that's what i'm trying to understand...what you are thinking and how you are reacting to the ever changing #'s. what are you looking to do and why ?
Read my post #286 carefully.

Based on what my system is telling me on the 4 Hour chart (i.e. the market is Neutral), I do not expect the market to move significantly lower within the next 4 hours.

In which case, I am not planning to go Short at the moment since there is little profit to be made.

Needless to say that I am certainly not planning on going Long.

Is there anything still not clear ?

Excellent question!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #290
  • May 15, 2014 8:21am May 15, 2014 8:21am
but if it runs up to the Day retracement level of 1299.73 then you would short it there or no ?
  • #291
  • Edited 8:42am May 15, 2014 8:26am | Edited 8:42am
Quoting tripr
but if it runs up to the Day retracement level of 1299.73 then you would short it there or no ?
That depends on your R:R.

If the market does return to the Retracement Level on the Day @1299.73 you can Short the market at that level but keep in mind that your target for such a trade is @1290.81 which is the current low. To enter that trade you need to set your stop loss slightly above 1305.48 (see Chart #5 above).

In this particular case your R:R is approximately no more than 1:2.

That which, according to my money management rules, is not sufficient.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #292
  • May 15, 2014 8:28am May 15, 2014 8:28am
so no trades for you in gold today I gather. thanks for your replies.
  • #293
  • May 15, 2014 8:30am May 15, 2014 8:30am
Quoting tripr
so no trades for you in gold today I gather. thanks for your replies.
Correct, that means no trade on Gold for me today.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #294
  • May 15, 2014 10:43am May 15, 2014 10:43am
Quoting tripr
so no trades for you in gold today I gather. thanks for your replies.
Did you go Short at the Retracement Level on the Day @1299.73 ?
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #295
  • May 15, 2014 11:41am May 15, 2014 11:41am
Hi Jacke,

Would you take a trade in the current market condition and in which direction?

Thanks!
  • #296
  • Edited 2:26pm May 15, 2014 11:48am | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting mausaroli
Hi Jacke, Would you take a trade in the current market condition and in which direction? Thanks!

No, I'm not looking at taking any trades at the moment. The market really doesn't have any significant momentum in either direction and even if it did, it offers very limited upside or downside.

If you look at my latest chart (see Chart #7 above), what we see is that the market is Bullish above 1294.06 on the 4 Hour while being stuck between the upper boundary @1300.58 and the lower boundary @1289.27 of the Neutral Zone on the 8 Hour .

Since you are closer to the lower boundary on the 8 Hour and the market is Bullish above 1294.06 on the 4 Hour, you would be looking at entering the market Long.

At best, you would be potentially looking at entering Long somewhere above 1294.06 with a Stop Loss @1290.86 and Take Profit around 1299.46 (i.e. the Supply Level on the 4 Hour timeframe).

Which in my view, isn't really an attractive trade. The risk being of at least 300 pips for a potential profit of no more than 600 pips.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #297
  • May 15, 2014 12:43pm May 15, 2014 12:43pm
yes jack, i shorted just north of the 1300 level and have taken most of the position off with a s/l at 1297.60 on the balance.
  • #298
  • May 15, 2014 12:44pm May 15, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting tripr
yes jack, i shorted just north of the 1300 level and have taken most of the position off with a s/l at 1297.60 on the balance.
Very happy to hear that ... glad you did!

Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #299
  • Edited 7:58am May 16, 2014 5:06am | Edited 7:58am
Friday May 16, 2014

Live Daily Sessions Starting Next Monday

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1294.57 with Demand @1292.23.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1287.25. The market returns Bullish above 1295.39 and Bearish below 1287.25.
On the Day, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1298.10 and 1289.12.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1313.84 with Demand @1277.08.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1295.63 and 1289.81.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1294.74 and 1292.52.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1291.54. The market returns Bullish above 1295.27 and Bearish below 1291.54.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1294.38 with Supply @1296.21.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #4

Sorry guys ... the market is moving too fast ... can't keep up ...

Watch the re-entry of the Neutral Zone on the 8 Hour timeframe !!!!

It is the lowest point of re-entry between the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes.

We are now momentarily Bearish below that point @1288.80.

The market is seeking a new low which will in turn push the re-entry point lower.

Now @1288.63

Remember that each time the market re-enters the Neutral zone it is in fact a signal that the Bearish move may be reaching the end on that timeframe.

On the 8 Hour, the market has re-entered the Neutral Zone above 1288.56 (see live application).

The market has now re-entered both Neutral Zones on the 4 Hour and the 8 Hour.

To continue Bearish, the market must absolutely exit the lowest of the two Neutral Zones (i.e. 8 Hour @1288.56) otherwise it is the end of the Bearish move.

ANY QUESTIONS ???
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-05-2014 (60-1).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-05-2014 (60-2).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-05-2014 (60-3).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 16-05-2014 (60-4).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #300
  • Edited 5:49am May 16, 2014 5:21am | Edited 5:49am
IMPORTANT :

Starting Monday next week, you will be invited to join live sessions during which I will answer any of your questions and provide in-depth explanations on how to use the FIA (Financial Instrument Analyzer) application.

The main objective will be to cover the various trading strategies and how to identify suitable trade setups.

Those of you who wish to receive an invite to the live sessions, please send me an email at [email protected].

Daily sessions will start at 8:45 EST (UTC-5:00) and end at 10:00 EST (UTC-5:00).

These sessions are open to anyone who would like to attend. You do not need to have access to the application to attend.

Traders who wish to attend the live sessions, will be given priority access to the application.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
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