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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #261
  • Edited 8:55am May 14, 2014 8:45am | Edited 8:55am
Quoting shaban010
Hope to see the price back to 1301 level so that i can add to my longs , still the final target 1325.
The market is likely going to support your view.

The reason being that on the 8 Hour (see Chart #7 above) the market has gone Neutral indicating that Bullish momentum has likely faded for the rest of the day.

Based on that configuration, I expect a retracement in the latter part of the day today (i.e. last 8 hour period) continuing into the early stages of the day tomorrow.

Together, both of these retracements should take us pretty close to the value you mention above.

Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #262
  • Edited 9:15am May 14, 2014 8:51am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting tripr
it appears there is much to learn using your system. i'm drawing blanks as of now. thanks for the replies tho'.
The system is extremely easy to learn and one which offers the shortest possible learning curve. You don't need to be an expert mathematician, an expert economist and you don't need to depend on any "gurus" or "masters" to know what you're doing.

You don't even need to perform fundamental analysis or any technical analysis, the technical levels are calculated for you.

This system offers you the freedom to trade with assurance any financial instrument, any timeframe at any time you want!

The fact that it looks different and that it is certainly not based on any of the conventional indicators makes it seem difficult.

In fact, having myself studied a great number of methodologies and systems, I can confidently say that this system is by far the easiest system to learn and master. I would add that, by all accounts, it is one of the most profitable systems you can learn (I would be more than willing to offer proof to support my claim but I cannot legally do so).
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #263
  • May 14, 2014 9:00am May 14, 2014 9:00am
would you be short now with a target to 1301 or so, based on the 4 and 8 hr. ?
  • #264
  • Edited 9:28am May 14, 2014 9:04am | Edited 9:28am
Quoting tripr
would you be short now with a target to 1301 or so, based on the 4 and 8 hr. ?
That depends on whether you're trading plan allows you to scalp the market or not.

My personal view, now that I know that the Bullish momentum in the market has likely faded (see 8 Hour timeframe on Chart #7 above) for the day, is to wait for tomorrow and see what my application tells me and then decide on a course of action.

Generally speaking, my trading plan allows me to trade only in the main direction of the market. For the moment, the market continues to appear bullish which by my trading plan implies that I am seeking opportunities to trade Long, not Short.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #265
  • May 14, 2014 9:18am May 14, 2014 9:18am
obviously it would be a scalp because I stated a target to 1301 or so. also you mentioned in an earlier comment the same area in response to another guy's post. not trying to be a hard ass or split hairs here but trying to get a better understanding of how you interpret and manipulate the system. in my view, if bullish momentum is waning and you can get a favorable R:R ratio it would be worth taking the short based on the available info.
  • #266
  • Edited 9:42am May 14, 2014 9:24am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting tripr
obviously it would be a scalp because I stated a target to 1301 or so. also you mentioned in an earlier comment the same area in response to another guy's post. not trying to be a hard ass or split hairs here but trying to get a better understanding of how you interpret and manipulate the system. in my view, if bullish momentum is waning and you can get a favorable R:R ratio it would be worth taking the short based on the available info.
Perhaps I should have expressed my thought a little better.

Indeed, it was quite clear to me that you were talking about scalping the market and it is for that reason that I chose to further explain the reason why, at this point, I would not be scalping on the short side.

You were also right in pointing out that if your R:R is the main and only rule you apply in order to decide whether you should take a trade (contrarian or not) than perhaps this would allow you to go short in this market.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #267
  • May 14, 2014 10:06am May 14, 2014 10:06am
are we buyers on this pullback ? this is similar to this morning's scenario.
  • #268
  • Edited 10:33am May 14, 2014 10:11am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting tripr
are we buyers on this pullback ? this is similar to this morning's scenario.
No, at least not yet. It is important to note that at this point both the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes are reporting Bearish momentum (see Chart #8 above). Before we think of taking any Long positions we need to see, at the very minimum, these timeframes return to Bullish momentum.

As mentioned earlier, the Bullish momentum in the market has waned and I believe it will remain so at least until the end of the day today.

I also expect weak Bearish momentum to settle in until the early moments of the day tomorrow.

That is the reason why I suggested to wait and see what the application will report in the early hours of the day tomorrow.

Therefore, for those who have access to the application, I would suggest you take a look at the technical levels as soon as the day opens tonight at 12:05 UTC-5:00.

More importantly, you should be looking at market direction on the Day timeframe to see if it reports Bearish or Bullish momentum for tomorrow.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #269
  • May 14, 2014 10:22am May 14, 2014 10:22am
so the day tf is the dominant tf regardless that the other 3 tf's are all bearish ?
  • #270
  • May 14, 2014 10:27am May 14, 2014 10:27am
Quoting tripr
so the day tf is the dominant tf regardless that the other 3 tf's are all bearish ?

The way I read the timeframes (see Chart #8 above) by referring to the first and second columns of each timeframe is as follows:

1) the Week maintains Bearish pressure which keeps the market below 1313.84,

2) the Day maintains Bullish pressure which keeps the market above 1297.67,

3) the 8 Hour maintains Bearish pressure which keeps the market below 1305.86,

4) lastly, the 4 Hour maintains Bearish pressure which keeps the market below 1308.53.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #271
  • May 14, 2014 10:43am May 14, 2014 10:43am
yep, i understand that. guess there's more art to this method than originally thought. maybe a webinar or tutorial would help answer some of these questions. thanks Jack.
  • #272
  • Edited 11:31am May 14, 2014 10:47am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting tripr
yep, i understand that. guess there's more art to this method than originally thought. maybe a webinar or tutorial would help answer some of these questions. thanks Jack.
Cool. Agree a webinar is much overdue.

The methodology is all about science (i.e. pure math) and has in fact very little to do with art and absolutely nothing to do with psychology. One could even argue that it is very poor from an artistic perspective (i.e. look and feel).

That which I promise I will seek to improve over time.

The one good thing about a methodology based on science is that when you make the wrong decision you can't blame it on the weather, the colour of the sky or the big bad market manipulators.

You can ONLY BLAME yourself for making the wrong decisions.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #273
  • Edited 3:18pm May 15, 2014 5:09am | Edited 3:18pm
Thursday May 15, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1302.87, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1302.87.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1305.26 and 1303.33.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1305.28 with Demand @1296.37.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1313.84 with Demand @1277.08.

Chart #2

The 4 Hour remains unchanged (see Chart #1 above).
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1305.26 with Supply @1307.95.
On the Day, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1310.13. The market returns Bearish below 1305.38 and Bullish above 1310.13.
The Week remains unchanged (see Chart #1 above).

Chart #3

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1303.54 on the 4 Hour and Bullish above 1300.58 on the 8 Hour.
On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1303.54 with Demand @1301.90.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1305.48 on the Day and Bullish above 1300.58 on the 8 Hour.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1300.58, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1300.58.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1305.48 with Demand @1296.57.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1297.05, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1297.05.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1293.89. The market returns Bullish above 1300.58.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1304.35, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1304.35.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1303.54 and 1292.43. The market returns momentarily Bearish below 1292.43 and momentarily Bullish above 1303.54.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1289.27. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1300.58.
On the Day, we have a new Retracement Level @1299.73.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #6 (Although the 4 Hour and the Day are both Neutral, we remain focused on the 4 Hour)

The 4 Hour remains unchanged (see Chart #5 above).
On the 8 Hour, the market is momentarily Bullish above 1300.58. The market returns Neutral below 1300.58 and momentarily Bearish below 1289.27.
On the Day, the market is Neutral between 1305.48 and 1299.73. The market returns momentarily Bearish below 1299.73 and momentarily Bullish above 1305.48.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #7

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1294.26 with Supply @1299.46.
The 8 Hour remains unchanged.
On the Day, the market has now returned Bearish below 1299.73.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #8 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1299.62 and 1286.05.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1299.73 on the Day and Bullish above 1294.88 on the 8 Hour.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1294.88 with Supply @1300.20.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 15-05-2014 (59-1).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 15-05-2014 (59-2).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 15-05-2014 (59-3).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 15-05-2014 (59-5).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 15-05-2014 (59-6).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 15-05-2014 (59-7).PNG Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 15-05-2014 (59-8).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 15-05-2014 (59-9).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #274
  • May 15, 2014 5:21am May 15, 2014 5:21am
good morning Jack, what's your plan for today in Gold ?
  • #275
  • Edited 5:35am May 15, 2014 5:23am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting tripr
good morning Jack, what's your plan for today in Gold ?
Hi tripr,

Certainly no Long trades for today unless the market manages to break the Supply level on the Day @1310.87 and for the moment no indication yet that short trades might be the way to go.

So let's stay on the sidelines at least until we get the technical levels on the next 8 Hour timeframe.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #276
  • May 15, 2014 5:30am May 15, 2014 5:30am
when does the next 8 hr. tf come in ?
  • #277
  • May 15, 2014 5:31am May 15, 2014 5:31am
Quoting tripr
when does the next 8 hr. tf come in ?
at 8:00 UTC-5:00, which is in about 1.5 hours from now.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #278
  • May 15, 2014 7:04am May 15, 2014 7:04am
any updates on that 8 hr. bar Jack ?
  • #279
  • May 15, 2014 7:20am May 15, 2014 7:20am
Quoting tripr
any updates on that 8 hr. bar Jack ?
Yes, sorry I just got back.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #280
  • May 15, 2014 7:37am May 15, 2014 7:37am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Yes, sorry I just got back.
did we lose you Jack ?
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