Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

Jack, how long have you been trading this particular system/methodology and what kind of success have you experienced with it ?

I have designed, built, tested and used the system over a number of years (approx. 2-3 years now) which doesn't include the R&D. The R&D itself represents about 4 years of work for a small team of individuals.

As for my results (i.e. success with it), all I can legally say is that they are by very far the very best results I have ever personally achieved (I know sounds like overemphasis but that's all I can say). I cannot legally publish my own personal results which is the reason why I do not use trade explorers here.

Prior to developing this application, I had studied and reviewed a great number of systems and read at least as many books about trading over a period of about 18 months.

None of which I found to be of any value from a sound business perspective.

So if you can't find one, build one. But you should only attempt to build one if you can't find one (if you see what I mean). Which is exactly what I have done.

"build it and they will come".

can't wait to see Crude. i trade that quite a bit.

Coming very soon !

Wednesday May 14, 2014

Chart #1

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1301.37 on the 4 Hour and Bullish above 1295.18 on the 8 Hour.
On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1301.37 with Demand @1297.98.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1295.18, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1295.18.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1308.44 on the Week and Bullish above 1297.67 on the Day.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1297.67 with Supply @1309.00.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1308.44 with Demand @1271.73.

Chart #2 (indicates that the first Active Consolidation Zone is no longer in effect)

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1302.75. The market returns Bearish below 1301.37 and Bullish above 1302.75.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone remains in effect (see Chart #1 above).
The 8 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #3 (you can now see that the market is Bullish on the 4 Hour)

On the 4 Hour, the market is now Bullish above 1302.75 with Supply @1303.50.
On the 8 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1296.44.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone remains in effect (see Chart #1 above).
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1303.20, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1303.20.
On the 8 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1297.01.

We have a new Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1309.01 on the Week and Bullish above 1297.67 on the Day.
The Day remains unchanged.
The Week is now Bearish below 1309.01 with Demand @1272.36.

Chart #5 (the market has entered the Neutral Zone on the 4 Hour)

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1304.88 and 1302.75. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1304.88 and momentarily Bearish below 1302.75.
On the 8 Hour, we have a new Retracement Level @1298.69.

We have a new Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1310.69 on the Week and Bullish above 1297.67 on the Day.
The Day remains unchanged.
On the Week, the market is now Bearish below 1310.69 with Demand @1273.93.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1307.00 with Demand @1299.40.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1306.90 with Demand @1303.10.

We have a new Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1312.31 on the Week and Bullish above 1297.67 on the Day.
The Day remains unchanged.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1312.31.

Chart #7 (Notice the Neutral Zone on the 8 Hour and the 4 Hour is Bearish below the lower boundary of the Neutral Zone on the 8 Hour)

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1308.53 with Demand @1300.90.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1308.43 and 1307.68. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1308.43 and momentarily Bearish below 1307.68.

We have a new Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1313.84 on the Week and Bullish above 1297.67 on the Day.
The Day is unchanged.
On the Week, the market is now Bearish below 1313.84 with Demand @1277.08.

Chart #8

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1308.53 with Demand @1300.89.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1305.86, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1305.86.

The Active Consolidation Zone remains in effect (see Chart #7 above).
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1297.67 with Supply @1308.98.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #9 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1305.32 with Demand @1298.53.
The 8 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

so, how are you playing it this morning Jack ?

Definitely looking to go Long.

Now since the market is hovering at the upper level of the first Active Consolidation Zone (see Chart #1 above) between the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes (i.e. Bearish below 1301.37), my plan is to wait for the market to reload on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframe and take it from there.

The market will take us into the second Active Consolidation Zone between the Week and the Day.

what are your targets for the longs ?

On the Week, I definitely expect Demand to overcome Supply based on the fact that the Long level @1310.69 is now above the Supply Level @1309.13. This is an indication that Demand will overcome Supply.

Once this happens, we will have a Low on the Week with a corresponding retracement level.

As for the target (take profit), we will simply exit on the Upper Boundary of a Neutral zone on a lower timeframe as they happen later during the week.

Assuming our trading plan is to stay in the trade for no more than one week, otherwise we would choose not to exit and remain in the trade for a longer period of time.

so are you long as of now and if so, when did you take the position ?

The answer is YES, I would be Long as the 8 Hour timeframe opened and I would have used the Long level as a Stop Loss for my entry.

Unfortunately, I did not take a snapshot of the Chart at that moment so I cannot tell you what the Long level was at that time.

Perhaps someone here remembers what the Long level was on the 8 Hour timeframe?

what time was the position taken ?

Immediately upon open of the 8 Hour candlestick. As soon as I knew what the Long Level was on that timeframe.

Note that if you had been scalping the market, your optimal exit would have been at the upper boundary of the Neutral Zone on the 8 Hour timeframe @1308.43.

Had you been in a Short trade, your optimal exit would have been at the lower boundary of a Neutral Zone.

scalping the mkt. from what price ? from where ?

What I was trying to say is that if you had planned on scalping the market when you entered your trade this morning, your optimal exit would have been the upper boundary of the Neutral Zone on the 8 Hour timeframe.

By the way, everyone who has access to the application should be looking closely at the chart at this very moment.

Can someone try and interpret what you see for us and tell us what's happening now??

Don't hesitate to copy the chart from the website and post it here to help explain your thoughts and support your analysis.

Anyone willing to try ????

i didn't take a trade because I was looking for a retracement back to the Day's 1297.67 level to take a long. it never hit any of the levels to go long as I recall. price stayed above the retracement levels on the 4, 8 and Day before moving higher so I did not chase it. that's why I asked the questions earlier this morning.

Hope to see the price back to 1301 level so that i can add to my longs , still the final target 1325.

That's an excellent point. Good strategy and good trading plan!

What you need to know is that at 8:00 the retracement levels observed on the 4 Hour and 8 Hour timeframes (see Chart #4 above) prior to that time were no longer in effect since they had been reset by the market.

it appears there is much to learn using your system. i'm drawing blanks as of now. thanks for the replies tho'.