Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

Friday May 9, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1291.03, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1291.03.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1287.10. The market returns Bullish above 1290.06 and Bearish below 1287.10.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1267.49. The market returns Bullish above 1290.28 and Bearish below 1267.49.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1291.51 with Demand @1278.60.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1292.46. The market returns Bearish below 1291.03 and Bullish above 1292.46.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1290.06 with Supply @1295.54.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1290.28 with Supply @1315.31.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1293.51. The market returns Bearish below 1291.03 and Bullish above 1293.51. Notice how the 4 Hour recalculates the target High for the Bullish momentum in the market (compare Short value with Chart #1 and Chart #2 above).
The 8 Hour and the Day remain unchanged.
On the Week, the market has re-entered the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1297.93 and 1291.51.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1291.49 with Supply @1294.51.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1293.10 with Supply @1294.91.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1290.28 with Supply now @1315.30.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1290.65, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1290.65.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1291.87 with Demand @1290.12.
The Day remains unchanged.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1291.51 with Demand @1278.60.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1290.65, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1290.65. The market returns Neutral below 1290.65 and Bearish below 1289.27.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1290.88, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have Retracement Level @1290.88.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #7

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1290.65 and 1289.26. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1290.65 and momentarily Bearish below 1289.26.
The 8 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #8 - Notice how the Day is now Bullish above 1288.26

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1290.40. The market returns Bearish below 1285.89 and Bullish above 1290.40.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1287.02, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a new Retracement Level @1287.02.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1268.88. The market returns Bullish above 1288.26 and Bearish below 1268.88. Notice how the Day is now Bullish above 1288.26.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1291.51 and the Unfilled Gap Indicator (i.e. Yellow Bar) now indicates 18%.

Chart #9 (Last)

Notice how the 8 Hour is now Neutral above 1287.02 and below 1291.87. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1291.87 and momentarily Bearish below 1287.02.
The 4 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

hi jack after viewing today movement dnt you thimk besides being in a consolidation mode on all small tf, long scalping opportunity looks better than short scalping, just one of my view

IMHO, given the technicals for today, I would not enter in any direction.

Then again, myself being anything but a scalper I'm not sure my perspective in that matter would be of any help.

Perhaps someone else viewing this thread would like to voice their opinion?

totally agree with u, infact i forgot to mention my 3 rd point of not entering at all in any direction under such circumstances, but u said it all cheers, by the way i am watching ur tool closely thru the link u sent, cheers mate

The fact that you have access to the application which updates every minute certainly constitutes a great advantage since you immediately appreciate the changes in the market.

Needless to say that today is a choppy market ...

agree Jack, we are in an obvious consolidation on the ltf's so not much to do here until we see a breakout of this range.

That's pretty much where I stand also.

this might get interesting to the downside.

Agree, certainly looks interesting on the Short side or things ...

Monday May 12, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1298.14. The market returns Bearish below 1293.46 and Bullish above 1298.14.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1283.06, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1283.06.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1290.43 with Supply @1296.59.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1299.79 with Demand @1263.24.

Chart #2

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1295.52 on the 4 Hour and Bullish above 1285.13 on the 8 Hour.
On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1295.52 with Demand @1287.41.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1285.13. We have a new Retracement Level @1285.13.

On the Day, (1) the market is Bullish above 1280.43, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1280.43.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1301.86 with Demand @1265.12.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive consolidation Zone between 1297.63 and 1294.53.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1306.03 and 1293.26.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1301.92, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1301.92.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1306.03. The market returns Bearish below 1300.65 and Bullish above 1306.03.
On the Day, we have a new Retracement Level @1287.29.
On the Week, the market is now Bearish below 1308.44 with Demand @1271.73.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1301.92 and 1297.63. The market returns momentarily Bullish above 1301.92 and momentarily Bearish below 1297.63.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1300.65 on the 8 Hour and Bullish above 1287.29 on the Day.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1300.65 with Demand @1289.38.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1302.43 with Demand @1292.64.

We have an Active Consolidation Zone as the market is simultaneously Bearish below 1300.65 on the 8 Hour and Bullish above 1287.29 on the Day.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1300.65 with Demand @1289.38.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #7 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1297.24 and 1290.92.

The Active Consolidation Zone remains in effect.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1301.11 with Demand @1287.88.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

My view ( If we hold 1288 level today and close above we are going to 1325 level to create 3 drive sell pattern

In addition to Gold, I will be adding 2 more instruments on a rotational basis to the FIA application such that you will have access to two different instruments each week.

Traders who have access to the application will now be able to view market analysis for 3 instruments using the same 4 timeframes (i.e. 4 Hour, 8 Hour, Day and Week).

Note that I will not be providing the detailed analysis for the extra 2 instruments within this thread and I will not be posting the charts on any other thread. I will be answering your questions by email only.

I will continue to answer your questions with respect to Gold using this thread.

awesome Jack, hope one of them is Crude.

You guessed it !

That's quite possible although I'm not sure what you base your analysis on.

you are the man Jack !

On the Day (see Chart #4 above) we now have a Retracement Level @1287.29 which is pretty close to the 1288 level you are referring to in your earlier post above.

I guess we can say that we're on the same page !!

Also notice on the Week, the Long level @1308.44 is within 1.00 of the Supply level @1309.08. This suggests that a strong Bullish move above 1309.08 has a very high probability of occurring within that timeframe.

Cheers.

it appears there is 8hr. and wkly. supply at roughly the same level. would you not be looking for a short there Jack ?

Referring to Chart #5 above, the Supply level on the 8 Hour is @1308.77 while the Supply level on the Week is @1309.08.

Even though these two levels are quite close, I would not be looking to take a short at those levels. The reason being the Bullish pressure being applied by the Day timeframe.

The 8 Hour and the Week are not consecutive timeframes. One must look at the timeframe in between when such a timeframe exists.

In other words, at the moment it is the Day that is driving the show.

Hope this answers your question.

the current chart.