Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

Friday May 2, 2014

Please note that exceptionally for today, I will not be able to post my charts and give you my analysis.

Thank you all for your understanding.

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Thank you for your patience.

Sunday May 4, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1300.67 with Supply @1305.66.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1321.97 and 1295.77.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1301.02 with Supply @1312.22.
On the Week, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1311.76 and 1278.48.

Chart #2 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1297.04. The market returns Bullish above 1300.67 and Bearish below 1297.04.
The 8 Hour remains unchanged.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1290.78. The market returns Bullish above 1301.02 and Bearish below 1290.78.
The Week remains unchanged.

Monday May 5, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1311.97 with Demand @1305.37.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1317.04. The market returns momentarily Bearish below 1310.52 and momentarily Bullish above 1317.04.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1313.29 with Demand @1284.99.
On the Week, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1290.87. The market returns Bullish above 1311.76 and Bearish below 1290.87.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1313.31 with Demand @1306.21.
On the 8 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1319.70 and 1310.89.
The Day remains unchanged.
On the Week, the market is Bullish above 1311.76 with Supply @1335.45.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1315.73 with Demand @1308.73.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1319.49. The market returns Bearish below 1313.31 and Bullish above 1319.49.
On the Day, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1333.00. The market returns Bearish below 1313.93 and Bullish above 1333.00.
On the Week, the market is Bullish above 1311.76 with Supply @1335.36.

Chart #4

The 4 Hour remains unchanged.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1313.31 with Demand @1305.01.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1313.93 with Demand @1285.58.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1308.65 with Demand @1304.09.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1313.81 with Demand @1305.01.
The Day remains unchanged.
On the Week, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1291.51. The market returns Bullish above 1311.76 and Bearish below 1291.51.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1309.87 with Demand @1305.29.
The 8 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #7 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1309.10 with Supply @1315.66.
On the 8 Hour, the markets holds a Bearish Bias below 1316.58. The market returns Bearish below 1308.81 and Bullish above 1316.58.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Hi Jacke!

How do you interpret today's market given your last chart, Chart #3 above ???

To interpret the market is quite easy.

Looking at Chart #3 above we know the market is Bullish on the Week but we have all three lower timeframes (i.e. 4 Hour, 8 Hour, Day)indicating that the market maintains Bearish pressure on the instrument.

Therefore, you should NOT enter any Long positions today.

Given that the Week is Bullish, my trading plan is to trade Long on retracements. Notice that the Week offers the best profit potential for a Long trade.

So let's be patient. It'll be well worth the wait.

(Further evidence of Bearish pressure is supported by the latest chart, Chart #4 above)

Hi Jacke,


I have another question...

Knowing that the market was Bearish below 1315.73 as per the 4 Hour timeframe on Chart #3 above, why didn't you enter a Short trade this morning ??

Thanks!

Excellent question!

My money management rules reflect the fact that I'm a conservative trader. As a conservative trader, I set my Risk/Reward criterion rather high at 1:5. This simply means that I will Risk 1000$ if a given trade setup offers me a potential Reward of at least 5000$.

In this morning's example, referring back to Chart #3 above, now suppose I would have entered a Short trade at the current price which was 1314.08:

1) I would have had to set my Stop Loss slightly above 1318.26,

2) I would have also set my take profit somewhere close to the Demand Level indicated on that same chart which was near 1308.73.

Since the RRR was approximately 1:1, this particular trade setup did not satisfy my RRR criterion. In other words, the Risk was far too high considering the potential Reward for this trade.

not speaking for Jacke but you could have if you wanted to. I did, and used his #'s in coordination with what I do and the trade is doing pretty well.

I absolutely agree.

The fact that I didn't enter this trade does not imply in any way that you should not have.

It all depends on one's trading style and personal objectives.

Tuesday May 6, 2014

Please note that exceptionally for today, I will not be able to post my charts and give you my analysis.

Thank you all for your understanding.

Wednesday May 7, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1313.46 and 1310.81. The market becomes Bullish above 1313.46 and Bearish below 1310.81.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1313.40, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1313.40.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1306.09 with Supply @1319.30. The market returns Bullish above 1311.24 and Bearish below 1306.09.
On the Week, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1291.51 with Supply @1335.36. The market returns Bullish above 1311.76 and Bearish below 1291.51.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1309.28 with Demand @1304.64.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1308.83 with Demand @1301.35.
On the Day, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1306.09. The market returns Bullish above 1309.75 and Bearish below 1306.09.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1307.47, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1307.47.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1308.83 with Demand @1301.33.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1304.78, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1304.78.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1300.38, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1300.38.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1303.24, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1303.24.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1297.69, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1297.69.
On the Week, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1291.51. The market returns Bullish above 1308.55 and Bearish below 1291.51.

Chart #5

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1292.09 with Supply @1298.80.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1299.48, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1299.48.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1293.93, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1293.93.
On the Week, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1291.51. The market returns Bullish above 1291.51 and Bearish below 1291.51.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1290.61 with Supply @1297.37.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1298.31, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a new Retracement Level @1298.31.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1292.76, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that w have a High, (3) we have a new Retracement Level @1292.76.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1291.51 with Demand @1278.85.

Chart #7 (Last - The 4 Hour indicates that the market has reached a Low for Today)

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1287.33, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1287.33. The market returns momentarily Bearish below 1286.66.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1294.36, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1294.36.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1288.81, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1288.81.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1291.51 with Demand @1278.89.

Hi Jacke,
How do you interpret the Market today? I noticed the Day turned bearish... Are you still long for the week?
Thanks!

First, let me say that I am not Long on the Week. What I said in my earlier post is that the Week was Bullish and I was waiting for a trade setup to go Long.

That being said, notice in Chart #1 above how both Short values on the Day @1311.14 and the Week @1311.76 are quite similar. Also notice in Chart #2 above how the Short value on the Day @1309.75 is now lower than the one on the Week @1311.76.

The Bearish pressure has now pushed the market back below 1311.76 on the Week suggesting that the market has confirmed a resistance at @1311.76 on that timeframe. Continued Bearish pressure in the Passive Consolidation Zone suggests that the market should continue Short towards @1278.64 the Demand Level on the Week.

We should now be looking for opportunities (i.e. Bearish market signals on lower timeframes - Day, 8 Hour, 4 Hour) to Short the instrument accordingly.

Hope this answers your question.

Jack, why do you think the low for the day is in ? Are you then looking for longs or looking for shorts at retracement levels or none of the above ?

Because on the 4 Hour which happens to be the lowest timeframe for the Day, Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low. The algorithms have been specifically designed to search and identify Highs and Lows in the market.

In this configuration, we continue to watch for Bearish signals on all lower timeframes (i.e. Day, 8 Hour and 4 Hour) as we seek to enter the market Short given that the Week is now Bearish.

sounds good and thanks.

Yes, thank you Jacke!
I entered a short for a very nice ride.

Thursday May 8, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1291.98. The market returns Bearish below 1290.53 and Bullish above 1291.98.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1291.08 with Supply @1310.35.
On the Day, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1294.25. The market returns Bearish below 1288.86 and Bullish above 1294.25.
On the Week, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1299.05 and 1291.51. The market returns Bearish below 1291.51 and Bullish above 12909.05.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1291.98 with Supply @1293.12.
The 8 Hour, the Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1291.98 with Demand @1290.63.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1292.08 with Demand @1288.39.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1292.00 with Demand @1285.94.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1291.98 and 1286.49. The market returns Bearish below 1286.49 and Bullish above 1291.98.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1292.09 and 1288.82. The market returns Bearish below 1288.82 and Bullish above 1292.09.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bearish below 1291.26, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1291.26.
On the Week, the market is Bearish below 1291.51 with Demand @1278.60.

Chart #5 (Very rare and interesting configuration where we have 3 timeframes simultaneously Neutral)

The 4 Hour and 8 Hour remain unchanged.
On the Day, the market is Neutral between 1292.00 and 1291.26. The market returns Bearish below 1291.26 and Bullish above 1292.00.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #6

The 4 Hour is Neutral as it remains unchanged. Notice how the 4 Hour is holding back the market within it's Neutral Zone.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1288.82, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1288.82, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1288.82.
On the Day, the market is Bearish below 1291.26, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1291.26.
The Week remains unchanged.

Chart #7

The 4 Hour remains unchanged. The market remains trapped within the Neutral Zone.
On the 8 Hour, the market has re-entered it's Neutral Zone between 1292.09 and 1288.82.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #8

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bullish Bias above 1284.70. The market returns Bullish above 1289.92 and Bearish below 1284.70.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1288.82, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1288.82.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

Chart #9 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is in the Passive Consolidation Zone between 1292.48 and 1286.42.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1289.29 with Supply @1295.08.
The Day and the Week remain unchanged.

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