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  • #201
  • Jun 10, 2013 7:48am Jun 10, 2013 7:48am

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

New Zealand Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C&LS 22% /

The latest cot report shows us that both the change in trader’s positions and the extreme in the market are painting a bullish picture. If we look at the longer term charts, we can see that NZD nicely reacted to these extremes. We may need to wait one or two more weeks, before the bottom develops, but it’s definitely getting closer.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS & SS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme is more evident here than in NZD. The COT report shows us that all major players in the market are at their all time extreme level. The picture is very bullish.


British Pound
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Seems that the cot extreme that developed a few months ago and which started to push prices higher is still widening. Prices should continue their rally.


I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_GBP.png Size: 243 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_AUD.png Size: 226 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report22_NZD.png Size: 235 KB
  • #202
  • Jun 17, 2013 8:48am Jun 17, 2013 8:48am

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Oats

COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS 60% /

The large change in the commitments of traders report can be considered a bearish signal, so we may see a bit of a price decline. We can’t talk about a very large cot extreme, but there is a relative one if you just look at a shorter period of time, such as the one-year chart.


Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme is still widening even though prices have reacted to it many weeks ago. We can expect prices to go even higher.


Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture in the commitments of traders report is the same as last week, we have a beautiful All Time extreme situation. If you haven’t seen my earlier warnings, it is still not late to take a trade!


I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report23_AUD.png Size: 245 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report23_Heating Oil.png Size: 260 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report23_Oats.png Size: 199 KB
  • #203
  • Jun 17, 2013 11:06am Jun 17, 2013 11:06am
Hi Dunstan ,I just came across with COT , it is very interesting and will learn all from you.

Keep going.
  • #204
  • Jun 18, 2013 8:01am Jun 18, 2013 8:01am
Quoting orionfx
Hi Dunstan ,I just came across with COT , it is very interesting and will learn all from you. Keep going.
Great, I'm glat you've joined! Just let me know if something is not clear, I'll try to help.

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #205
  • Jun 25, 2013 1:27am Jun 25, 2013 1:27am

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Rough Rice

COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 53% /

If you remember, we talked about rough rice a few reports ago and now looking at the chart, we can see that the large cot change back then was a very nice bullish signal that resulted in a successful trade for anyone, who took it. This time, we have another large change, but it is a bearish signal. Since we are also close to a bullish cot extreme, the question is: which signal to follow (?). Well, the shorter, one year charts suggests that we should expect a decline in prices --> rough rice reacts to these large changes, so we may expect it to do so again. Of course we shouldn’t forget about the longer term picture too…

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Even if Small Speculators seem to be pessimistic about this market (which usually is a bullish signal), the other two major participants are at cot extremes that have a bearish bias.


Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Another Commercial Capitulation? The pictures is very much similar to the once we had in Japanese Yen. We’ve got a huge (All Time) cot extreme, but prices seem to neglect the signal. If this is the case, we can expect a very serious decline in prices.


I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report24_AUD.png Size: 245 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report24_Crude Oil.png Size: 212 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report24_Rough Rice.png Size: 211 KB
  • #206
  • Jul 1, 2013 7:11am Jul 1, 2013 7:11am

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS - 31%, SS - 41% /

Large changes in Traders positions that have a bullish bias, but let’s not forget that the recent cot extreme triggered the down leg which may continue further. Analyzing the Volume and Open interest last week, we can see that it is also a bearish signal.

RBOB Gasoline

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 26%, SS - 22% /

COT Extreme / C – 143 Report, LS – 144 report COT extreme /
Bullish picture supported by the large change in the commitments of traders report and also the cot extreme.


Copper
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
We’ve got a huge COT extreme (All Time) in Copper that is telling us: the decline in prices may be over soon.


I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report25_Copper.png Size: 245 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report25_RBOB Gasoline.png Size: 237 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report25_Nasdaq-100.png Size: 240 KB
  • #207
  • Jul 10, 2013 5:45am Jul 10, 2013 5:45am

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here).

Oats

COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27%, SS – 36% /

The large change in the cot report suggests that prices will rally, but the longer time frame is painting a different picture: there was a pretty large cot extreme last week that may push prices lower.


Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time Extreme still, stress levels are building up. The big question: when can we see prices react to this large extreme or would we witness a rally at all (commercial capitulation).


Gold
COT Extreme / C – 600, LS - 438 report COT extreme /

Stresses are really high in metals these days… we’ve reached extremes that we haven’t seen for over 10 years now!! The pictures is bullish.


I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report --> here
COT charts --> here

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report26_AUD.png Size: 246 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report26_Gold.png Size: 228 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report26_Oats.png Size: 254 KB
  • #208
  • Jul 15, 2013 3:08am Jul 15, 2013 3:08am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS - 53% /
It seems that we are witnessing again another large change in traders positions. The last couple of times the signals were affective, so we can expect prices to react to the recent one as well.


Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C – 121 Report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).

Gold
COT Extreme / C – 601 Report, LS – 439 report COT extreme /
The stress level in Gold is extremely high… we’ve reached levels that we didn’t see for over ten years now. In my opinion, we are looking at an extremely bullish picture.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT reportCOT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report27_Gold.png Size: 214 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report27_Crude Oil.png Size: 228 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report27_Rough Rice.png Size: 219 KB
  • #209
  • Jul 22, 2013 4:06am Jul 22, 2013 4:06am

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 26% /
A bit larger change then average, but I don’t think it deserves too much attention. What’s more interesting is that the extreme is again widening, which means the rally is still not over.


Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C ,LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week’s comment is still in place: “The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).”

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The All Time extreme situation in Australian Dollar has been present for over a month now and it seems that prices are starting to react.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report28_AUD.png Size: 250 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report28_Crude Oil.png Size: 226 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report28_S&P-500.png Size: 243 KB
  • #210
  • Jul 30, 2013 10:20am Jul 30, 2013 10:20am
Hi everyone,

Sorry, but it seems that COTbase.com did not post a new Commitments of Traders review this time. Anyhow, I will give you an update as usual


Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 22% /
The change in the cot report was large and suggesting a bearish move --> as we see it today, prices did decline a bit. The longer/wider picture on the other hand is still pretty bullish: Commercials are net long, which in most cases throughout Coffee’s history happened when prices were low.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices seem to support us --> the cot extreme may be in effect, thus we can expect the decline to continue.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Commercials and Large Speculators (unfortunately without Small Speculators being in extreme) are at an All Time extreme level in their net positions. This, as we can see in the past is a very bearish signal, so we can expect prices to continue their decline that started roughly two weeks ago.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Lean Hogs.png Size: 253 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Crude Oil.png Size: 226 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report29_Coffee.png Size: 239 KB
  • #211
  • Aug 6, 2013 1:41am Aug 6, 2013 1:41am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 22%, SS – 30% /
The change size in recent cot report and the relative extreme that we’re at suggests a bottoming of prices soon. Since we are not at a major extreme level, which would be a clearer signal to act on, we should be careful with a long trade.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
All market participants are at All Time or close to All Time extreme levels in their net positions. This means that stress levels are very high in Australian Dollar --> the bubble should burst our sooner or later. Of course the big question is as always: when?



S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The COT Extreme in Indexes is getting larger and larger as prices are moving higher. In my opinion the rally will continue into September and we will get much larger extremes before we reach the top.


I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT reportCOT chartsCommitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report30_S&P-400.png Size: 229 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report30_AUD.png Size: 245 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report30_Soybean Meal.png Size: 199 KB
  • #212
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:00am Aug 12, 2013 8:00am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 25%, SS – 8% /
The change in commitments of traders report and also the extreme (Commercials net long) both give us bullish signals. When the rally starts, we’re gonna see Commercials go back to deep net short territories.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
After last week’s rally it seem that we may have reached the bottom… if the rally continues this week, we should see market participants move away from their extremes.



Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is pretty obvious here, we are at or close to the top in prices --> the extreme is huge in Lean Hogs!

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report31_Lean hogs.png Size: 242 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report31_AUD.png Size: 246 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report31_Coffee.png Size: 240 KB
  • #213
  • Aug 12, 2013 8:37am Aug 12, 2013 8:37am
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out (here). New Zealand Dollar COT Change (52W) / C&LS 22% / The latest cot report shows us that both the change in trader’s positions and the extreme in the market are painting a bullish picture. If we look at the longer term charts, we can see that NZD nicely reacted to these extremes. We may need to wait one or two more weeks, before the bottom develops, but it’s definitely getting closer. }
Thank you!
Top notch analysis,
I'm subscribed to this thread from now on.

So pleased having you here in FF =)
  • #214
  • Aug 16, 2013 2:38am Aug 16, 2013 2:38am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} Thank you! Top notch analysis, I'm subscribed to this thread from now on. So pleased having you here in FF =)
Hi openyoureyes,


My apologies for replying so late, but I was out of town for a few days…


Thanks for your compliment! I’m very glad that you have joined the thread. Let me know if you don’t understand something!


All the best,


Dunstan
  • #215
  • Aug 20, 2013 1:03pm Aug 20, 2013 1:03pm
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS - 25%, SS – 31% /
The latest cot report is showing us that there were large changes in Trader’s positions. This, combined with the extreme in the market suggests that prices should continue their rise.

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 31%, SS – 11% /
The huge change in Commercials and Large Speculators positions tells us that prices may easily fall a bit, but let’s not forget that a few reports ago, we were at a major cot extreme which signaled the latest bottom and is still in effect.

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
Although there was a roll-over in contracts here, it is still obvious that price have declined since last week’s signal… the extreme in this market is supporting the further decline of prices.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report32_Lean Hogs.png Size: 248 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report32_Copper.png Size: 196 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report32_Sugar.png Size: 238 KB
  • #216
  • Aug 26, 2013 4:36am Aug 26, 2013 4:36am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS - 28% /
The large change in the latest cot report indicates that prices will rise instead of continuing their decline. The situation in indexes is very exciting, cause we have an extreme or to say: large stresses amongst indexes these days, but I think that (it’s just a feeling) we will see an even greater extreme in the next few weeks/months, before prices really reach a top.

Live Cattle
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS - 24%, SS – 11% /
Both of our major cot signals are telling us that prices will fall --> We’ve witnessed another large change in Trader’s positions and as it happened, we’ve reached a relatively larger cot extreme (let’s just open a three year long chart) that is bearish signal.

Cotton
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is a definite extreme in Cotton as we can see and prices have already reacted.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
  • #217
  • Aug 26, 2013 4:38am Aug 26, 2013 4:38am
wooops... sorry, I forgot the attachments
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report33_Cotton.png Size: 205 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report33_Live Cattle.png Size: 200 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report33_Dow Jones-30.png Size: 232 KB
  • #218
  • Sep 2, 2013 5:57am Sep 2, 2013 5:57am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27% /
The situation is interesting here, because the large change in Trader’s position is suggesting that price should rebound / get back into rally mode, but then again, we’ve just reached a cot extreme level that could easily turn this uptrend into a down trend.

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS - 22%, SS – 15% /
Similarly to S&P, we’ve got the two major cot signals pointing in opposite directions: the change is suggesting that prices will rise, but the extreme is still in place and it is showing us a bearish picture.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme /
The Extreme in Cocoa is pushing prices lower. If Commercials could reach a net short level of <25-20.000 contracts, we’d get a relative extreme that may push prices to rally mode.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report34_Cocoa.png Size: 253 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report34_Cotton.png Size: 182 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report34_S&P-500.png Size: 243 KB
  • #219
  • Sep 9, 2013 1:44am Sep 9, 2013 1:44am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

EURO
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS - 12%, SS - 27% /
EURO became first on the list in respect to large changes in Commercials positions.. this could mean that prices will rally, but the cot extreme (relative) that is present suggests that prices will continue their fall. It’s not a clear picture…



Cocoa
COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS /
The cot extreme that is present in this market is telling us that prices cannot rally for too long anymore. I agree with it.

5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C-293 report, LS – 179 report, SS – 394 report COT extreme /
The extreme is pretty clear, so we are expecting a bottom to develop soon… of course, looking at longer charts (>10 year), we can find even greater extremes, so if prices continued their decline, we shouldn’t be surprised.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report35_5-Year Note.png Size: 258 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report35_Cocoa.png Size: 252 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report35_EUR.png Size: 252 KB
  • #220
  • Sep 16, 2013 7:23am Sep 16, 2013 7:23am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 26%, SS - 45% /
The large change in Trader’s positions suggest that prices will drop. Of course we never should forget to look at the bigger picture. If we open a longer chart, we can find that not long ago we were in a very bearish looking cot extreme situation (commercials net long). Traders are moving away from these extreme territories, and as they do, prices are rallying.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS /
Last week’s comment is still alive: prices should reach a top soon.

5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C-408 report, LS – 293 report, SS – 411 report COT extreme /
Judging by last week’s price reaction, we may have reached the bottom.



I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT reportCOT chartsCommitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report36_5-Year Note.png Size: 257 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report36_Cocoa.png Size: 250 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report36_Sugar.png Size: 237 KB
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