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Trading Gold with PA

  • #181
  • Edited 4:15pm Apr 18, 2013 4:00pm | Edited 4:15pm
For 5 consecutives D1 Candles, including Sunday, GOLD was on a Big Bearish run.
On the 6th D1 Candle GOLD Consolidated in the area of ca. 800 Pips.
On the H4 chart there is the bounce Up pin bar and the following Break Up Candle,
or Engulfing Candle, or Trend Candle - depending on individual definition.

Bears were unable to make a new Low but Bulls did not have enough power to go up, either.
However, every consecutive Bearish attack has been counterred with a Bullish Break Up, so far.
Thus, despite the long spike, because some Big-one had to close their Shorts at Profit,
(BTW. Doesn't that tell you anything?), Bulls still Broke Up, however, unable to make a new High.
Today's first H4 Bullish Break Up Candle was the signal for today's Long from my location (London+1).

Now, the price has Consolidated, first after the last longer Bullish Candle,
next in the following H4 Doji.

This is the building of the Demand Zone, which, for me is clearly visible.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd-h4-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 66 KB


From the M15 chart perspective, Bearish Break Down Candle 1 was the signal for Short.
However, looking at the Bullish run just left to this Candle, the relative potential was weak.
Even, though it could produce 130 Pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd-m15-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 78 KB


As usual, the problem is that we are not there when it happens.

I was still good on the Long, just got Profit SL-ed.

Gumrai was there for the Short.
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #182
  • Apr 18, 2013 4:22pm Apr 18, 2013 4:22pm
Substantial pullback to 1500/50 area might be good opportunity to reload shorts... if we'll get that . It doesn't look like we are anywhere near the bottom.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #183
  • Apr 18, 2013 4:31pm Apr 18, 2013 4:31pm
@Greenhaze

Is that your opinion, or can you justify that with PA on the charts?
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #184
  • Edited 5:01pm Apr 18, 2013 4:41pm | Edited 5:01pm
Quoting Dadas
@Greenhaze Is that your opinion, or can you justify that with PA on the charts?
If you cant see candlesticks then you cant see PA. Right?

In magnitude of this drop i want to see bullish signs on higher timeframe before participating in long becouse most of the time price doesnt just bounce straight up after such strong breakouts... it tends to consolidate for couple of days and often have another stab at the lows.

I have no problem with waiting for better risk/reward ratio opportunity even if i miss couple of setups.

There is massive ammount of trapped bulls in gold. Retail , hedge funds etc...
and if you believe they are confident about upcoming upmove or already out from red then go ahead, be a hero catch that falling knife...

Play huge risk for small reward just to have something to show
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2317.png Size: 188 KB
  • #185
  • Apr 18, 2013 5:17pm Apr 18, 2013 5:17pm
@Greenhaze,

Thus, your opinion is of no value for the PA trader.
There are Candles, on the left.
PA is not just about reading the current PA, it is also about reading historical PA.

The MN chart shows that price is at the level, where it historically consolidated.
Taking into account, that there were Buyers at that level,
taking into account that price has bounced of that Support level,
considerring the above Zone as the big consolidation of the previous years,
we can, with a relatively solid probability, assume that price will retrace back to
the big Zone, before it goes back down, if it goes back down.
That is too far into the future to say anything about.
The retrace might take a couple of months, or maybe the rest of the year.
That is for us to watch on smaller Tfs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd-mn1-fxsalt-ltd.png Size: 60 KB
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #186
  • Apr 18, 2013 5:24pm Apr 18, 2013 5:24pm
Quoting Dadas
There are Candles, on the left. PA is not just about reading the current PA, it is also about reading historical PA.
You are talking gibberish. You know that?

After those false statements from other forum you lost any credibility. Keep on struggling and welcome on my ignore list.
  • #187
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:07am Apr 19, 2013 4:07am
Quoting Gumrai
No, I was right today
You see, Gumrai, this is not about who is right or who is wrong.
This is about reading Price Action.

I can not be right, I can not be wrong, because I do not know.

There are people who think I am talking gibberish.

But, I do not care about them.

It is their problem, not mine.

It is the price that is always right.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusd-h4-fxsalt-ltd-2.png Size: 59 KB

And, I did lose my good Long Entry.

PS.
Greenhaze is accusing me of something he can not prove.
I never posted any false statements on any forums.
I, once, posted my true statement, but they said it was not.
It is their opinion.

I am not here to prove anything.
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #188
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:39am Apr 19, 2013 4:39am
1 year of trading experience and 100 lot overnight short EJ positions without SL on Fxsalt broker. Desperate spamming everybody with private messages trying to prove something. Claiming to have best & most indepth thread on FF. There are other ways to stroke ones ego MR D.
  • #189
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:47am Apr 19, 2013 4:47am
Quoting Dadas
For 5 consecutives D1 Candles, including Sunday, GOLD was on a Big Bearish run. On the 6th D1 Candle GOLD Consolidated in the area of ca. 800 Pips. On the H4 chart there is the bounce Up pin bar and the following Break Up Candle, or Engulfing Candle, or Trend Candle - depending on individual definition. Bears were unable to make a new Low but Bulls did not have enough power to go up, either. However, every consecutive Bearish attack has been counterred with a Bullish Break Up, so far. Thus, despite the long spike, because some Big-one had to close...

Now that's a post that I can understand.
I wouldn't necessarily agree, but that's what makes PA analysis interesting.
Just my POV, I would wait for a break-out of the top of the range before considering a long position and then preferably with a test of the broken resistance.
I see that the break-out has now happened.
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  • #190
  • Apr 19, 2013 4:49am Apr 19, 2013 4:49am
Quoting Greenhaze
If you cant see candlesticks then you cant see PA. Right? In magnitude of this drop i want to see bullish signs on higher timeframe before participating in long becouse most of the time price doesnt just bounce straight up after such strong breakouts... it tends to consolidate for couple of days and often have another stab at the lows. I have no problem with waiting for better risk/reward ratio opportunity even if i miss couple of setups. There is massive ammount of trapped bulls in gold. Retail , hedge funds etc... and if you believe they are confident...
Nice and clear analysis
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  • #191
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:00am Apr 19, 2013 5:00am
Quoting Gumrai
Now that's a post that I can understand. I wouldn't necessarily agree, but that's what makes PA analysis interesting. Just my POV, I would wait for a break-out of the top of the range before considering a long position and then preferably with a test of the broken resistance. I see that the break-out has now happened.
Maybe you are correct about this.
However, I have seen so many identical scenarios on GOLD and even lost money in the past,
because my Ego had insisted on Short when the Long was there, that when I see what I
described above, I am really sure that is what the outcome will be.

Let's say that Price Action is backed with a little intuition.
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #192
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:10am Apr 19, 2013 5:10am
Held off posting while trying to catch up on some sleep.
One of the joys of living in rural Thailand is that people can have parties that last for days and they hire amplifiers and speakers more suited to a rock concert. They have zero consideration for any body else in the village and so I have been bombarded with extremely high noise levels for at least 20 hours a day for 3 days.
When one is subjected to extreme noise levels for an extended period and unable to sleep properly, it tends to make one very irritable. so if I have been overly critical, then I apologise.
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  • #193
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:21am Apr 19, 2013 5:21am
Quoting Gumrai
Held off posting while trying to catch up on some sleep. One of the joys of living in rural Thailand is that people can have parties that last for days and they hire amplifiers and speakers more suited to a rock concert. They have zero consideration for any body else in the village and so I have been bombarded with extremely high noise levels for at least 20 hours a day for 3 days. When one is subjected to extreme noise levels for an extended period and unable to sleep properly, it tends to make one very irritable. so if I have been overly critical,...
Like, WOW!
That couldn't have happened in Poland!
Even in rural areas!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #194
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:21am Apr 19, 2013 5:21am
Quoting Dadas
Maybe you are correct about this. However, I have seen so many identical scenarios on GOLD and even lost money in the past, because my Ego had insisted on Short when the Long was there, that when I see what I described above, I am really sure that is what the outcome will be. Let's say that Price Action is backed with a little intuition.
Well, to my mind, taking a long before the break-out is jumping the gun.
Nothing wrong with that, after all, I feel that taking a position based on M15 charts is also jumping the gun. It allows you to get into the market with a smaller SL with potential reward much higher than risk.
It's a personal preference, but I don't like to jump the gun if I am considering a counter-trend entry. And the way that I read the charts, I considered that any long entry would be counter-trend. Not saying that I would never do it, but it would have to be a really good signal.
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  • #195
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:25am Apr 19, 2013 5:25am
Quoting Gumrai
Well, to my mind, taking a long before the break-out is jumping the gun. Nothing wrong with that, after all, I feel that taking a position based on M15 charts is also jumping the gun. It allows you to get into the market with a smaller SL with potential reward much higher than risk. It's a personal preference, but I don't like to jump the gun if I am considering a counter-trend entry. And the way that I read the charts, I considered that any long entry would be counter-trend. Not saying that I would never do it, but it would have to be a really...
Well, then, if we have our R/R and MM, is it not worth the risk to Enter early?
Had I not moved my SL, I would be very happy today!

But, what's gone is gone!
No use crying over spilled milk!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #196
  • Apr 19, 2013 5:41am Apr 19, 2013 5:41am
Gumrai,

I know some people will say it is another one of my gibberish,
but I have noticed the following rules:

1. When EURUSD is going Down and GOLD is refusing to go Down at the same moment,
this tells me GOLD will go Up as soon as EURUSD starts Up.

2. When EURUSD is going Up and GOLD is refusing to go Up at the same moment,
this tells me GOLD will go Down as soon as EURUSD starts Down.

That is what has been happening for a very long time!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #197
  • Apr 19, 2013 6:42am Apr 19, 2013 6:42am
Quoting Dadas
Gumrai, I know some people will say it is another one of my gibberish, but I have noticed the following rules: 1. When EURUSD is going Down and GOLD is refusing to go Down at the same moment, this tells me GOLD will go Up as soon as EURUSD starts Up. 2. When EURUSD is going Up and GOLD is refusing to go Up at the same moment, this tells me GOLD will go Down as soon as EURUSD starts Down. That is what has been happening for a very long time!
I have noticed that there is correlation with the USD and Gold.
Because Gold is traded and priced in USD, if the Euro rises against the $, it effectively makes Gold cheaper for all those in the Eurozone.
Theoretically that should stimulate demand for Gold from the Eurozone and so Gold should rise.
If the price of Gold does not rise and then the Euro weakens against the $ there are a few possibilities that come into play.

Using a ridiculous example...
Say that Eur/USD is at parity and Gold is $1000 /troy ounce, that would mean that Gold is 1000Eu/ounce
Euro strengthens to $2, but Gold stays at $1000, that means that Gold is now only 500 Eu/ounce. That should stimulate demand, and you would expect the Gold price to rise, if it doesn't rise then there must be reasons that you don't know. Eurozone buyers will pile in.
Euro starts to weaken against the $, but because the Eurozone buyers are holding a commodity valued in $ they are actually making a profit even if the price of Gold remains unchanged against the $
Euro weakens to parity with $ once again and so the unchanged Gold price is once again 1000$/oz and 1000Eu/oz.
Those who bought Gold when it was 500Eu/oz will now be taking profits. The underlying factor that you didn't know about that prevented the price rising despite demand from the Eurozone, will now combine with the Eurozone buyers taking profits and that will push prices lower.
Does that make sense? I know what I want to say, but have difficulty explaining it coherently.

So no, I don't think that your theory about the relationship/correlation between Gold and EU is gibberish. It makes perfect sense to me.



Oh God, the hirers haven't collected the Amplifier/speaker set and they have started up again. I thought that it was over.
I'm off to get a few more beers than I should. I apologise in advance for any post that I may make later cos I will be drunk!
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #198
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:08am Apr 19, 2013 7:08am
Quoting Gumrai
I have noticed that there is correlation with the USD and Gold. Because Gold is traded and priced in USD, if the Euro rises against the $, it effectively makes Gold cheaper for all those in the Eurozone. Theoretically that should stimulate demand for Gold from the Eurozone and so Gold should rise. If the price of Gold does not rise and then the Euro weakens against the $ there are a few possibilities that come into play. Using a ridiculous example... Say that Eur/USD is at parity and Gold is $1000 /troy ounce, that would mean that Gold is 1000Eu/ounce...
Thank you!

I perfectly understand your logic!

Have a nice party!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #199
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:38am Apr 19, 2013 7:38am
Quoting Dadas
Thank you! I perfectly understand your logic! Have a nice party!
I should also point out that I may have noticed this correlation and I think that I understand why it happens, I have not been able to find a way to use it to improve my trading.

Quote
Have a nice party!

I don't get involved in the parties any more. I have a pretty good relationship with most of the people in the village, but at parties there are always a lot of strangers. I get sick and tired of strangers sucking up to me because they see a white face, think rich and try to get whatever they can out of me. I've been here too long to fall for that, but constantly fending them off gets boring.
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  • #200
  • Apr 19, 2013 7:45am Apr 19, 2013 7:45am
Quoting hariusa72
Gold trading 126 ticks
Tick value is 1 cent, pip value is 10 cents
126 ticks is eff all when most traders are trading with a broker's spread of 50 ticks.
This is a price action thread
Your link has nothing to do with PA.
Please take your spam elsewhere.
Kindly delete your post, if you do not then I will ask the mods to remove it and will also report you as a suspect vendor.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
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