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Trading Gold with PA

  • #141
  • Apr 16, 2013 7:13am Apr 16, 2013 7:13am
Quoting Gumrai
You are the master of ambiguity Dadas. If you are making a prediction, then please make it clear. "It will either reach a new Low, or the retrace will Close Higher" means nothing.
It means exactly what it means.

I am not the Holy Ghost to predict or know the exact movement!

I am just telling the most probable scenario based on most common GOLD behaviour.

PS.
And, yes, that is what this market is about!
You never know, and can never know.
It is only the PA which indicates the probability!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #142
  • Apr 16, 2013 7:22am Apr 16, 2013 7:22am
Quoting Dadas
It means exactly what it means. I am not the Holy Ghost to predict or know the exact movement! I am just telling the most probable scenario based on most common GOLD behaviour.
No, you are covering all bases.
There are no probabilities in your post, only that it will make a higher high or lower low. That is obvious.
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  • #143
  • Apr 16, 2013 7:47am Apr 16, 2013 7:47am
Quoting Gumrai
No, you are covering all bases. There are no probabilities in your post, only that it will make a higher high or lower low. That is obvious.
Then, that is the only thing which is obviuos, as long as the Market lasts!

The probabilities are my Zones, which you see on my images.
The PA in and around those Zones.

And these Zones are plotted according to a certain rule, not just as it fits.

To the rule of PTECZ.
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #144
  • Apr 16, 2013 11:30am Apr 16, 2013 11:30am
Maybe not a great deal in this situation, but a quick 84 Pips!
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Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #145
  • Apr 16, 2013 2:28pm Apr 16, 2013 2:28pm
Would have taken this one on hourly, sorry about IB charts, the bearish engulfing , not blue candle , don't know how i did that
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  • #146
  • Apr 16, 2013 2:55pm Apr 16, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting decades
Would have taken this one on hourly, sorry about IB charts, the bearish engulfing , not blue candle , don't know how i did that {image}
That's what it was, on retrace after that one!
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Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #147
  • Apr 16, 2013 3:45pm Apr 16, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting decades
Would have taken this one on hourly, sorry about IB charts, the bearish engulfing , not blue candle , don't know how i did that {image}
That was quite a nice set-up. Lately, the best PA seems to happen when I am not around
I note that there were also some possible entries on the M15.
On the chart below, the H1 engulfing pattern candle is made up from the 4 M15 candles in the square.
There was a nice almost shaven strong bearish candle that followed indecision. Nice series of lower highs.
Only problem is that the previous swing low had failed to make a lower low.
Easy to see the nice trades with hindsight but this could have got you in with a much smaller SL than on the H1 chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 16 april m15.gif Size: 18 KB
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  • #148
  • Apr 16, 2013 4:02pm Apr 16, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting Gumrai
That was quite a nice set-up. Lately, the best PA seems to happen when I am not around I note that there were also some possible entries on the M15. On the chart below, the H1 engulfing pattern candle is made up from the 4 M15 candles in the square. There was a nice almost shaven strong bearish candle that followed indecision. Nice series of lower highs. Only problem is that the previous swing low had failed to make a lower low. Easy to see the nice trades with hindsight but this could have got you in with a much smaller SL than on the H1...
As you say, Gumrai, you are not around when it happens.
That also stands for the precise moment you are describing.
You are either not around, or just watching a different pair.
When you look at GOLD, the setup is there, but the moment already gone!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #149
  • Apr 17, 2013 5:51am Apr 17, 2013 5:51am
M15 chart

Triple top
Last 3 complete candles , hanging man, doji and final candle looking bearish.
Despite higher lows, this is starting to look like a retrace in a bearish trend.
Will see what happens with this current candle. but if it continues as reasonably strong bearish, I will take a short

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #150
  • Apr 17, 2013 5:57am Apr 17, 2013 5:57am
Entered early because there seemed to be urgency on the tick chart

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  • #151
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:04am Apr 17, 2013 6:04am
At support - prepared to bail out if things don't look good for my short

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  • #152
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:07am Apr 17, 2013 6:07am
SL at BE
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  • #153
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:38am Apr 17, 2013 6:38am
Bulls are trying to come back at trend line.
If I see signs of bullish strength, then I will be prepared to take profits

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  • #154
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:46am Apr 17, 2013 6:46am
Seeing signs of Bulls fighting back.
Getting close to the time that I shut down for the night
Moved my stop

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 1 april m15 6.gif Size: 20 KB
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  • #155
  • Apr 17, 2013 6:51am Apr 17, 2013 6:51am
While I was typing the last post, stop got hit with a paltry 26 pips profit
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  • #156
  • Apr 18, 2013 2:19am Apr 18, 2013 2:19am
Again, you can believe it or not,
but I was going to post, here, yesterday:

"It is about time for the Big Spike on GOLD.
Watch out for the Big Spike, buy at bottom if you catch it!"

Then, I though that Gumrai is gonna call me
"Master of ambiguity" or such, and I gave up!

The spike took place at 3:00 where I am, so I was sleeping.
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #157
  • Apr 18, 2013 3:02am Apr 18, 2013 3:02am
Quoting Dadas
Again, you can believe it or not, but I was going to post, here, yesterday: "It is about time for the Big Spike on GOLD. Watch out for the Big Spike, buy at bottom if you catch it!" Then, I though that Gumrai is gonna call me "Master of ambiguity" or such, and I gave up! The spike took place at 3:00 where I am, so I was sleeping.
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  • #158
  • Apr 18, 2013 3:17am Apr 18, 2013 3:17am
I wasn't at my computer when this set-up happened on the M15.
I'm pretty sure that I would have taken this one because it hit and reversed so precisely at the broken support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: M15 failed.JPG Size: 52 KB


Sometimes the M15 can give good early signals that allow a smaller SL and sometimes they fail.
Not even a hint of a reversal on the H1 chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold 18 april h1.gif Size: 17 KB
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  • #159
  • Apr 18, 2013 3:26am Apr 18, 2013 3:26am
Quoting Gumrai
I wasn't at my computer when this set-up happened on the M15. I'm pretty sure that I would have taken this one because it hit and reversed so precisely at the broken support. {image} Sometimes the M15 can give good early signals that allow a smaller SL and sometimes they fail. Not even a hint of a reversal on the H1 chart. {image}
That is one of my points, though I am getting laughed at,
that you can not trade GOLD on PA, alone.

There are a lot of intuitive factors about trading GOLD.

Such spikes are a standard procedure in situations as the present one.
I call them SL wipe outs.
They are building a Demand Zone, then they make a strong Spike
which sometimes tests a new Low.

My scenario from a couple of days ago stands strong!

And, you can laugh as much as you want, it will only make you feel better!
Trade the facts, not opinions.
  • #160
  • Apr 18, 2013 3:49am Apr 18, 2013 3:49am
Quoting Dadas
That is one of my points, though I am getting laughed at, that you can not trade GOLD on PA, alone. There are a lot of intuitive factors about trading GOLD. Such spikes are a standard procedure in situations as the present one. I call them SL wipe outs. They are building a Demand Zone, then they make a strong Spike which sometimes tests a new Low. My scenario from a couple of days ago stands strong! And, you can laugh as much as you want, it will only make you feel better!
Again, you can believe it or not,
but I was going to post, here, yesterday:

better post bro rather than speaking.
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