Trading Gold with PA

Don't worry about it Dadas.
Rj and I are Arch enemies
Of course I'm the Superhero in brightly colured tights and RJ is the Evil villain sworn to bring me down
Boy, do these tights chafe

RJ knows that I wouldn't claim a winning trade unless I called it first or it was on my TE.

That was why the tongue in cheek remark......as I know you know!!

How does this jabber contribute to the thread?
How does it help anybody learn or better?
Unless they are interested in psychology, sociology, and such.
But, there are other forums for that!

It's not your thread. Mind your own business.

Gumrai, would you like me to stop contributing to this thread?
If you ask me to leave, I will unsubscribe.

However, I am interested in trading GOLD with PA and I am, doing it.
Thus, I find your thread the right place to post my opinions.

Post whatever you want....as will I. However this is Gumrai's thread and he makes the rules....therefore.....welcome to my ignore file

I would rather that posters stick to the discussion. A bit of sidetracking/banter is inevitable, but as long as the main focus is on reading the charts, I have no wish to exclude anyone from this thread.

So, let us read the charts, something I like doing, makes me happy.

Let us start from the top:

The MN chart on the Y1 Zone Candle:

My readout:
For many years the price of GOLD was practically moving in one direction - Upwards.
In September, 2011 the sudden change of direction took place.
September 2011 pratically consumed the August, 2011 Candle.
The following 2 months the price retraced, but did not create new Highs.
In December, 2011 the price plunged down, again, creating a new Low.

In January, 2012 the Funds bought back what they had sold.
However, no new High was created.
February to May, 2012 the price continued down but did not create a new Low.
The price bounced of the floor in May and continued up until October,
where it bounced of the ceiling and continued to go down until February 2013.

The price has now reached the Support level of 2012, the Y1 Zone Candle background.

March, 2013 is showing an upwards tendency, however, the month is not yet finished.

From this perspective, we are either experiencing a retrace toward the Resistance Zone of 2012,
or, the price might continue down, after breaking down the Support Zone.

However, we can see that the price is in a wide congestion or range ever since 2011.

The W1 chart on the MN Zone Candle:

The W1 chart on the MN Zone Candle shows the range in more detail.
Here, we can see how the price, first bounced of and then consolidated in February, 2013 Support Zone.
Then, the price continued up for a week, and still up for another week, though much weaker.
This week, the price is, so far, retracing down.

The D1 chart on the W1 Zone Candle:

The D1 chart on the W1 Zone Candle shows us the more detailed picture of the Price Action
in relation to the W1 Zone Candle levels.
We can see that the price has reached the Support Zone of last week.
The current D1 Candle of today is not yet closed, but it has already bounced of the Support Floor,
and this bounce of has been the third in the row, as we can see in history to the left.
This could be the retrace in the building of the Bullish Trend.
However, we should wait and see what happens next, if the price wants to break down the Support.

The H4 chart on the D1 Zone Candle:

Zooming in closer, we can see that today, after yesterday's ranging, the price continued down.
It broke down the Yesterday Support Zone, but retraced back, then consolidated during 4 hours
right at the Support Floor level, and is now showing what could be a retrace in the Bearish Local Trend.
However, the H4 candle has just opened 15 minutes ago, thus we can not tell much now,
other than the Local Trend is Bearish.

So far, the above readout has covered Long Term and got simmered down to Day Trading.

Now, for Daytrading, the above H4 chart is a good place to start.
As we, now have a good view of the situation, we could be looking for an entry.

I like to look on the M30 chart for GOLD, on the W1 Zone Candle:

Knowing the whereabouts, I should be looking for Short Entries at tops of retraces.
I need to know the potential levels, the Potential Trend Ending Candle Zones (PTECZ).
The upper one on the picture is from H4, where the ranging had been on the left as seen on the H4 chart.
Having estimated the Pip potential on the basis of Daily Range and ADR, now I wait for the signal to enter.
I am looking for this signal on the M5 chart.
This may take some time, so I will post this post now.

Now, GOLD is a pretty big mover, so having assumed a Short Entry,
I am losing out on quite a lot of Pips having been possible to take from a Long Entry
as shown in the picture:

But, I have got to stick to some rules!

We see these sudden and explosive moves on Gold and they are often followed by deep reversals


We see that the upmove came from a new recent low. The bears did fight back at an obvious resistance level and then we had a bullish candle that just shot up. Went straight through the 1600 level without a pause.
My feeling is that these dramatic moves are not totally due to bullish strength, but also the bears simply stepping aside until they can see a good level to re-enter the market.
I hope one day that I will be able to understand these moves and learn how to trade reversals at times like this.

So, it turns out we will have to be waiting long for the short.
You can either believe it or not, but I felt this Long through my bones in the morning.
Just, did not believe it.

Such is GOLD, that PA on smaller Tfs does not exactly work.
It is the general trend you can see that seems to be more important
than the lenghts of individual Candles, especially in small Tfs, below M30.

For this reason, I find it most profiting when trading the H4 chart with GOLD.

This requires more patience in time and may not be appropriate for every trader.

I thought I would take a look at a diffrent broker's chart.

Now, just the plain H4 chart.

At 1 Bulls practically consume the Bears, plus the long wick of the previous Candle.
At 2 the Low is higher than the previous Low - Trend is Bullish localy.
Bears still do not give up, but 3 is still higher than the Lowest Low.

A retrace, of course there will be one and Short will follow.
Now, Bulls are consuming the Bears from the left -1 and 0.

Let us remember this picture, that it is here.
We will see how it works or not in the future.

GOLD, H4 with Andrews' Pitchforks.


The demand zone started down where the highlighted area.

Don't know if you guys are getting the same story.
Look at this:

The 2 brokers' charts that I look at, one stops trading Gold for 1 hour at 21:00 GMT, the other from 21:15 til 22:00
Looks like your broker has an additional M5 candle from 21:15 til 21:20.
Amazing that the additional candle was an excessively long bearish and probably enough to take out all the stops of those who had long positions in the previous few hours.
Something underhand with your broker?

Neither of my brokers' charts showed that drop!

Happens few times no big thing..might be realted to 1hr closing of gold market.

Yeah, I looked at several other brokers' charts, no sign of this drop.
ECN and DD. But my broker is ECN, you can check that out on the web.
Works on commissions, spreads are really low, on GOLD I get spreads
even below 10 Points, which is like below 1 Pip on EURUSD.

And, yes it was the last candle before the break.

But, I think there might be Sellers here.

PS.

As far as SL cutting out - I would agree if it were a DD broker.
With ECN brokers, what would be the reason?
Unless it is the Bank who has any interest in such a thing.

As far as "no big deal" - I think every Price Action is information.
I have seen very long Bearish spikes (wicks) on Bullish trends on GOLD, and vice-versa.
It is 99% the price will reach that level again in the nearest future!

And, again, some brokers' charts show those spikes, others filter them out.

PPS.
Yes, now it makes sense!
Those spikes were on DD broker's chart.
He knows where the Pending Orders have Stops (S/R).

He can work with that information.

Now, I can show you what I have done yesterday and today.

First, yesterday I was trying to be too smart.
I did not wait for the proper signals, just assumed and entered 2 Short trades.
The price continued up.
But, I did not close the trades, as PA told me there should be Shorts.
I opened a double Short at the top, yesterday, when I saw the Short signals clearly.
Thus, when already in good profit, I closed the double Short and just
a few moments later I closed the other two trades at profit.