Trading Gold with PA

Hi,

I've been thinking about starting a thread about trading Gold with price action for a while now and decided that I may as well go for it.
It is not my intention to teach anything, I don't think that I have any right to do that.
My intention with this thread is that like-minded traders will hopefully share their experiences and knowledge and that maybe we will be able to become more skilfull by working together.
Rules are that no indicators except moving averages are to be used. I actually find that the 21 EMA can work very well as floating support/resistance.
Objects like forks, channels etc are allowed.
I don't have much faith in Fibonacci, but if you like to use it, then fine.
Anybody that reads this thread must accept that there is no trading advice here, just opinions and impressions. If somebody posts a set-up in real time and you decide to take the same trade, you will accept total responsibility for any losses. I hope that there will be some contributors that will post their live trades, but stress that these should not be considered any sort of trading advice.
Hopefully, there will be some interest and that we will be able to help each other.

I posted this in another thread last weekend
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post6519191
Didn't seem to be much interest in my efforts to read the chart, hence I have started this thread so as not to clog up the other with my efforts at PA.
That post is duplicated below.

Well, short term, the market is telling you to stay out, there is no obvious trend.
It's been a difficult market so far this month, ranging. then a break to the upside, and seems to have moved straight into another range.
The 1600 psychological level is proving to be a hard level for the bulls to break

Looking at the chart...
1. Price went down to 1600 level (support) and bounced straight up again. The next time that the bears tested this level, they found no interest from the bulls. Probably bulls that were currently in the market were covering their losing positions adding to the selling pressure. With the bulls collapsing and the break to the downside, more bears jumped on board and created a sharp downtrend.
2. The 1600 level was tested as resistance and held
3. Price pierced the level but backed off and the candle closed below its open. Bears would see this as a good signal to enter the market
4. Bears were caught out as bulls applied buying pressure and the move up was fueled by bears closing their losing positions. Sudden move up was stopped just as suddenly as there were no more buyers and bears came back into the market. We don't know why the market turned here, we only know that it did. With the sudden move stopped so abruptly, it is fair to assume that the high of candle 4 may prove to be an important level in future.
5 & 6. Mediocre support. Probably bulls that got into the market while candle 4 was moving up are now holding losing positions and have no appetite to buy more. When market moves down at 6, clears out the bulls' stops and bears take control.
7. Market stops without making a new low and then ranges
8. Break up from the range, but immediately stopped at the 1600 level. 6 candles later, price tries to break the level once again and is strongly rejected, forming a double top.
9. Bears manage to push the price down and halfway into the previous ranging zone. Bulls came in and pushed the market back up again, so the candle closed higher than its open. With the long lower shadow, this is a good bullish signal.
Once again, price tested the 1600 level. Both bulls and bears will be aware of the double top and previous reactions at this level, so bulls will be taking profits and bears looking to sell rejection.

So, in my opinion, the market is more bullish than bearish currently, but it is probably safer to wait until there is a break up of the 1600 level. Be aware that there may be resistance at around 1620 (top of candle 4).

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1363384950

This is just my opinion and how I am currently looking at the market, in case anyone is interested. It is not intended as any sort of trading advice. The market will do what it will and usually proves me to be wrong


Will follow up with my thoughts for next week in my next posts

Last week price did break above 1600 and then this level worked well as support.
There was only 1 good signal on the H4 chart. That is the number 5 candle.
I wish that I had taken it, but was not around at the time.

Weekly chart shows that Gold is trading in a large range.
Most recent action has been a downtrend within that range.
Looking to the left, when price was last in this area, it was a period of congestion where the long upper and lower shadows of the candles showed neither bulls nor bears could take control.
Price neared the lower extreme of the range and has been steadily climbing for the last 2 or 3 weeks.
Candles 1 and 2 were basically bearish, but the bulls did try to exert pressure, but were beaten back by the bears. Bulls could not push price above 1620 during these 2 candles and so 1620 seems to be a confirmed resistance level.
the last 2 candles on the chart are bullish, but although getting close to this 1620 level, the bulls have, as yet been unable to break above it.
We will have to wait and see what happens next week. Should the bulls once again take the price up to this level, I will be looking for signs of bullish weakness and bearish strength to help decide whether to short or not.
Should the bulls be able to push price up to around 1640, then I will look for opporunities to buy.

Daily chart doesn't really offer any more clues than the weekly.
The last 4 candles have created a mini -range and if considering a bearish stance, it is probably best to wait for a break below this range.

Hi Gumrai,

I am on board.
GOLD is my favourite, have traded GOLD a lot, lost a lot, won a lot, too.
You already know something about my method, but with GOLD there is more.
I use AP, it really proves to work good with GOLD.

Here, my outlook on GOLD:

D1 chart in relation to Monthly S/R levels.


This Andrews' Pitchfork has been there for a long time, now, never did anything to adjust.

And another interpretation, this one is my friends, he uses his own ideas.

Welcome aboard Dadas.
Just to be clear the darker bands on your chart relate to the upper and lower shadows of The last completed monthly candle, but you have extended the zones backwards to check on reaction at these zones in the past?
So what is your outlook?
You didn't actually say.

Maybe your friend can post here and explain.
I'm afraid that I don't see any interpretation or analysis in this chart.
To me it just looks like a chart with some boxes marked out and some candles' bodies have lines coming from top bottom and middle of the body.
I'm sure that your friend understands the signifigance, but I'm afraid that I don't

What is my outlook?
That is a very general question.
As you can see on the above view, the price has validated the Support Zone,
and is now moving upwards towards the Monthly middle line, the red dash line.
And, perhaps further up, towards the AP upper fork.
We should watch the price behaviour at the Monthly middle line.

The just ended week, the price nicely bouced off the previous week middle line (green),
thus confirming the Bullish tendency.

We should expect some retrace, but the general symptoms are the continuation Upwards
toward the upper fork.

Then, we must watch for the next symptoms.

As far as the possible retrace, we must consider lower Tfs.

Switching views, now H4 on completed W1, which is still the week 11-17 March:

The price has brokenout the resistance zone, and looks like a possible L entry.


I am not suggesting anything, just analising.

PS. I am expecting GOLD to continue down from the upper fork level.
At around 1625 - 1630 .

If the price breaksout the upper fork and continues, that will be Bulls.

My friend does not write English, he can read, but neither speak or write other than programming.

This is a Momentum concept.
The boxes are Candles, D1 candles, the D1 chart in background.
This is PA with the Momentum concept. Thus, Fibo levels.
The dotted lines is his own indicator, breakout levels.
Colors, obvious - directions.

As far as last Thursday and Friday, this was the scenario for DT:

Bullish Candle 1
Price does not create a new Low.
Price creates a new High.
Price Close at higher than previous Close and High.
Thus - Bulls.
Bearish Candle 2
No new Low.
No new High.
Close inside the previous candle.
Thus - still Bulls.
Bullish Candle 3
No new Low.
New High.
Close above previous two Candles - breakout.
Thus - still Bulls.
Bearish Candle 4
No new High.
No new Low.
Bearish, but not completed, yet.
So far, inside.
Thus - 3:? for Bulls.

Still another view seems to confirm the possible continuation of the Bullish trend.
However, we must watch the price at the red dash line for possible trend reversal.
For the moment, odds are still for Bulls, thus L at bottoms.

Still fine tuning the picture:

Dadas, I think you should look more to the left just before those long bull candle. Just above 1607 is a strong supply/demand area. With previous rejection which failed to breach the upper range of those area, and now back below 1607 gold is showing bearish sign. On friday when she goes below 1607 and stay there for a while I have close my long from 1586 and now looking for short if price goes above 1607 at london session.

Sorry no chart, I am on a friend's PC and no MT4 here.

I agree!

But the trading style is up to the trader.

Looking at the W1 chart we could expect GOLD to continue down.
We should be looking for a Short as high as possible.


The price did go up from where my analisys suggested, and there was ca. 80 Pips in stake.
Wheather the trader decides to go for this, or trade the W1, it is up to him/her/it/whatever.

That, of course, was the M5 context.

Context is the most important thing for what you want to trade.

My Resistance Zone from the H4 context shows Short on retrace to that Zone.

Still, that does not mean there will not be Long in the Daily context.

It is most important to know, what context you are trading.

And stick to that context, always!

More on my thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post6544566