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Cycle Trading

  • #481
  • Jan 21, 2012 6:23am Jan 21, 2012 6:23am
Quoting Fabio69
Hi JR
thanks I fully understand ;-)

I understood that you do not fully use Hurst to create the Cycle SW forecast correct?

Are you using some inpunt from Eheler stuff?
Fabio
My price cycle forecast has nothing to do with Hurst or Ehler. It's based on taking a single number.. ie the price at a specific time, and using the cycles contained within that number to create a composite cycle projected forward.

From what I've seen and programmed of Ehler's stuff is that he's just applying digital intorpolation concepts to price ending up with oscillators that don't project into the future. I was an audio mastering engineer in my previous career and his stuff isn't too different than the concepts behind digitizing audio. In fact, a lot of indicators are similar to audio processing concepts. But none of that has anything to do with what I do in my cycle research/methods.
  • #482
  • Jan 21, 2012 8:30am Jan 21, 2012 8:30am
just noticed the topic of hurst cycles on your thread,i trade a method on the ftse100 of which i dont post about,inadvertantly i became aware of these cycles and infact a member here on ff pointed out that my cycles that i was trading were similar to that of hursts,after a little research i found that they matched his findings .we often follow sombodies ideas with sucsess or without,but i was pleased that i worked from the oppisite way.anyways just thought id mention my obsvervations,ps his work was very interesting .

regards
william
  • #483
  • Jan 21, 2012 10:05pm Jan 21, 2012 10:05pm
Another example of the Price Cycle Forecast. This time combined with the aforementioned planetary aspect price lines but also asc and mc cycle time lines. Makes for a lot of lines. But using the Price Cycle forecast helps dial in on which vertical lines to focus on by looking for verticals that line up with cycle forecast turns. Then just wait for the cycle turns to happen at a price line.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...21%2020.41.gif

http://content.screencast.com/users/...21%2021.01.gif
  • #484
  • Jan 21, 2012 10:14pm Jan 21, 2012 10:14pm
.... and here's Friday.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...21%2021.12.gif
  • #485
  • Jan 22, 2012 12:09am Jan 22, 2012 12:09am
Since the Price Cycle Forecast is based on static cycles spit out by a single number, it's important to find the time frame that is in harmony with the cycles. The previous Euro charts were 5 min. charts. GBPUSD does better with 10 min.

Below are the forecast and the results for this past Thurs. and Friday.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...21%2023.00.gif

http://content.screencast.com/users/...21%2022.55.gif
  • #486
  • Jan 22, 2012 8:51am Jan 22, 2012 8:51am
what are those colors of those bars indicating Chad?


looks cool


heres my s&p natural power cycle .
im just ready for a crash over the board man.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s and p power cycle.gif Size: 43 KB
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #487
  • Jan 22, 2012 2:58pm Jan 22, 2012 2:58pm
Here's an example to show that the price cycle forecast can work in any market.
E-mini 2 min. chart before and after. This wasn't cherry picked as an example. Just a random day.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...22%2013.56.gif

http://content.screencast.com/users/...22%2013.46.gif
  • #488
  • Jan 23, 2012 7:42am Jan 23, 2012 7:42am
Euro forecast played out well through the London session and should hold up through the US session.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...23%2006.38.gif

British Pound forecast on a 10 min. chart playing out as well.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...23%2006.37.gif
  • #489
  • Jan 23, 2012 7:44am Jan 23, 2012 7:44am
Quoting bumapatria
what are those colors of those bars indicating Chad?


looks cool
The colored bars are just a trend indication. Blue is up, Red is down, Green is undecided.
  • #490
  • Jan 23, 2012 7:51am Jan 23, 2012 7:51am
Quoting JR97
The colored bars are just a trend indication. Blue is up, Red is down, Green is undecided.
thats nice man. cool.

question - since u have been trading cycles way longer than i have been - longer timeframe cycles and swing trading mindsets.... im a day trader - trying for some larger moves.

any comments/advice on Longer tf cycles and swing trading mindsets? based on the perspective of a time trader of course - yours especially im asking.

coz i feel .. different from daytrading.

i feel ... boring. or bored.. i dont know lol...
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #491
  • Jan 23, 2012 11:51am Jan 23, 2012 11:51am
Quoting bumapatria
coz i feel .. different from daytrading.

i feel ... boring. or bored.. i dont know lol...
I actually seek boredom from trading. That means I have no problem walking away and doing something else. I have no need to stay glued to a chart when there's other stuff that's more entertaining than watching grass grow.

Although when I do spend a lot of time with charts, it's not trading but researching and programming.
  • #492
  • Jan 23, 2012 11:59am Jan 23, 2012 11:59am
Quoting JR97
I actually seek boredom from trading. That means I have no problem walking away and doing something else. I have no need to stay glued to a chart when there's other stuff that's more entertaining than watching grass grow.

Although when I do spend a lot of time with charts, it's not trading but researching and programming.
only a pro can get bored from trading. thats when ure truly profitable and its just ... boring.

as for me im on the edge of a rollercoaster before it dips into a vortex.

either im on the right and happy end of the screaming seated peeps or ill be the unlucky one with the seatbelt unfastened and fly off and die.

lol jk.

its boring for me because i am just holding and watching... holding and watching. i used to live on the wild side. 5m charts price action with cycles and gann squares. good times good times...

take care Chad - update us on some trades u got if u got any and would like to share and not be stingy as usual hahaha jk jk

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #493
  • Jan 23, 2012 12:21pm Jan 23, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting bumapatria
only a pro can get bored from trading. thats when ure truly profitable and its just ... boring.

as for me im on the edge of a rollercoaster before it dips into a vortex.

either im on the right and happy end of the screaming seated peeps or ill be the unlucky one with the seatbelt unfastened and fly off and die.

lol jk.

its boring for me because i am just holding and watching... holding and watching. i used to live on the wild side. 5m charts price action with cycles and gann squares. good times good times...

take care Chad - update us on...
I remember when I first started trading. I was the same way. It's exciting to see stuff play out and take profits, but I go nuts just sitting there watching and I'll screw things up. Or I'll start looking for action when there isn't any or no real clear high prob. opportunities. So I'd rather go play some guitar, some video games, or whatever. Plus, I work full time in front of a computer all damn day so sometimes the last thing I want to do is sit in front of another computer.

On another note, one of the things that increased my trading ability tremendously was playing poker. So while I was day trading, I'd spend most of that time playing online poker. That took care of the action bug and honed in the setup/risk-reward/emotional aspects of trading.
  • #494
  • Jan 23, 2012 12:29pm Jan 23, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting JR97
I remember when I first started trading. I was the same way. It's exciting to see stuff play out and take profits, but I go nuts just sitting there watching and I'll screw things up. Or I'll start looking for action when there isn't any or no real clear high prob. opportunities. So I'd rather go play some guitar, some video games, or whatever. Plus, I work full time in front of a computer all damn day so sometimes the last thing I want to do is sit in front of another computer.

On another note, one of the things that increased my trading...

ill play the fake chips coz i dont think ma momma wants me playing real online poker LOL just yet... but yeah i should do that too - i need to catch up on my post hardcore riffs on my guitar.. listen to more music - catch up with studies as well.
and like u im almost also in front of the screen a whole lot of the time of the day. i go out when im bored and need fun.. and i enjoy a dip into a little pirate downloads with games and movies (no porn ) ..

but i findit coolhow ure cool with everyhting that happens... must be nice to have a 6+ year experience in trading.

im only what 6 months LOL...

hahahaha!

hey man where are we based on this chart?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1322808294
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #495
  • Jan 23, 2012 12:30pm Jan 23, 2012 12:30pm
now listening to itunes radio on some random nice bigband station...

nightime i dont need the post hardcore stuff yet LOL...
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #496
  • Jan 23, 2012 12:46pm Jan 23, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting bumapatria
now listening to itunes radio on some random nice bigband station...

nightime i dont need the post hardcore stuff yet LOL...
Nice. I played drums in the jazz band in school. I love big band stuff. It's actually harder stuff to play than the hair metal shit I did back in high school.

Yes, I lived through the hair metal days.

http://freesmileyface.net/smiley/mus...rocker-001.gif
  • #497
  • Jan 23, 2012 12:58pm Jan 23, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting bumapatria
... must be nice to have a 6+ year experience in trading.

im only what 6 months LOL...

hahahaha!
I don't know if it's nicer. Definitely not as exciting now. I wish I would have known then what I know now, though. But there weren't any forex traders doing this stuff when I made the jump to forex. So you're pretty lucky to get an early start. I spent the first 2-3 years in forex doing squiggly lagging indicators. Did well, but I much prefer what I"m doing now. Definitely more satisfying.

Back in my eod paper chart days it was all simple chart patterns, support/resistance, and trend lines. No indicators whatsoever. Had to be patient because I had to wait for the WSJ to show up to update charts.
  • #498
  • Jan 23, 2012 1:03pm Jan 23, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting JR97
I don't know if it's nicer. Definitely not as exciting now. I wish I would have known then what I know now, though. But there weren't any forex traders doing this stuff when I made the jump to forex. So you're pretty lucky to get an early start. I spent the first 2-3 years in forex doing squiggly lagging indicators. Did well, but I much prefer what I"m doing now. Definitely more satisfying.

Back in my eod paper chart days it was all simple chart patterns, support/resistance, and trend lines. No indicators whatsoever. Had to be patient...
so ure a PA dude too - brother in arms man! Pa base as well


wow
2-3 years on indies but look at u now man. .. . i stopped those oscillators stuff (except custom stochs for fun not signals) when i blew my first account. now 2nd acc its a blossoming rose all great and prospering with time traidng.. . glad i found people like you for inspiration and ideas..

unlike the 1st chaotic chaos ruin acc... buy on green dots and crossovers sell on red dots and crossovers... br... scary.. zigzags.. god i hated those and still do.



my bro plays drums btw. im only guitar and i do some screamo signing as well but my throat has been hurting lol due to excessive screaming!


well now we wait for a crash or a not too crash...

theres also a guy on audusd thread calling for a crash like some prophet of doom over 38 hours dow S&P gold will drop... not that it gives me more confirmation but its funny theres those omens on my side LOL...

im a natural bear - i get pleasure from market crashes more than rallies. but i can go long too no doubt lol
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #499
  • Jan 23, 2012 3:28pm Jan 23, 2012 3:28pm
To conjunction price with support line 1*1
open sell

the pattern is formed in the crab
the pattern is formed in the AB=CD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd 24-1-2013 3.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd 24-1-2013 2.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd 24-1-2013.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #500
  • Jan 23, 2012 4:19pm Jan 23, 2012 4:19pm
Quoting JR97
My price cycle forecast has nothing to do with Hurst or Ehler. It's based on taking a single number.. ie the price at a specific time, and using the cycles contained within that number to create a composite cycle projected forward.

From what I've seen and programmed of Ehler's stuff is that he's just applying digital intorpolation concepts to price ending up with oscillators that don't project into the future. I was an audio mastering engineer in my previous career and his stuff isn't too different than the concepts behind digitizing audio....
JR
I'm also a master engineer, but in telecommunication . I played a lot with all those digital filters (IIR, FIR etc.). I coded as well a lot of Eheler stuff and I realize that, indeed like you say, they work good in an audio environment, while in FOREX they do not get any better than a simple moving average cross, w/o any forecast.

As I said earlier, I fully understand your principle , but at least can you say on which theory is based your indicator?
Thanks
Fabio
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