Cycle Trading

thanks bro

I found another great script.
It can "expand" piece of chart.
I "expanded" bars in rectangle and get nice result.

Is still valid that on 20th october is maximum and it will fall till its 1.nov.

JR great results, nice run there mate!

Don't know until price gets there. It could be the max high or it could be a minor pull back high. It could also be an inversion low, but the cycle rarely inverts.

We just have to wait and see what happens when the future arrives and trade accordingly.

That's cool. Thanks, man!

The charting package I worked it out on doesn't handle the weekend bars very well, but it's been accurate so far.

MT4 has 10/17 as the date. I'm still sticking to 10/20 as a date also. Double top or pull back high? Never can tell until it happens.

Two weeks ago my 8 yr old boy was watching me work out this new cycle method that is pretty good at picking market turns as well as direction. So I moved the cycle around testing the hypothesis historically and he understood the concept of it pretty well. I told him to move it to a point that projected in to the future and then tell me what direction to look for a trade. He said down. So basically my kid forecast a down move 2 weeks in to the future.

That point arrived today and he's up 100 pips. He was pretty excited all weekend waiting for the market to open and get the trade on. He saw when it was up 20 pips and had a pretty good smile. I'm sure he'll be ecstatic to see it was up over 100 pips. I opened a small account for him and this will be a fun way to get him in to the trading game.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-V...17%2B05.43.gif

I found another great script.
It can "expand" piece of chart.
I "expanded" bars in rectangle and get nice result.
Attached Thumbnailshttp://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1318430946
Attached Fileshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/mq4.gifCTG-Fibo-m.mq4 (7.3 KB, 11 views)


@ewanewan:this looks nice...
how is function of this script?
thanks in advance for an explanation...

The main idea of this script is "Market is a fractal structure".
And you can predict the whole trend just expanding the first fractal.
So this script can expand small part of chart to predict the whole move.

You can change the scale by moving vertical line.
And change the size of fractal by changing size of horizontal line.

Sorry for my bad english

Well, if it isn't JR himself.

You used to blast my threads over at MoTec many years ago, even when my Digital Dashboard trades (remember those) were spot on (7thSignal). Of course, it is all water under the bridge to me now.

Seems like you've made some improvements to your own trading and that's good. It is also good to see someone still in the business after a number of years. Lots of people come and go in this business, and those who are able to stick around and thrive are typically the people who get to laugh last.

As for me and my digital system - I've actually discovered (after all these years) that I don't need it. Laughing last a little, I guess. I've learned to simply draw a line in the sand and trade it. It took me eons to figure out that non-directional trading was my best bet for long range profitability as an active day trader. Besides, it is the closest thing I can get to a near risk-less options strategy - by far in FX, without running into liquidity issues, or proprietary vanilla options open interest issues.

Not too many old timers around anymore. I'd sure like to know what happened to JohnG, out of the United Kingdom. He used to love the "Jeppy" trade (GBPJPY). That would really set the clock back to about 1997/1999 - the old DailyFx days. The Wild Wild West of trading forums (before the clean-up).

So, good to see that you have persevered through the years and I wish you the best in your thread, JR97.

Hi JR,

I just recently start analyzing cycles on charts and picked up one: GBPUSD.
I know it's not very practical (veeeeeery loooong ), but wished to show it to you, for your advice.
I found two lowest lows (starting 22 jan 2009) distant 345 bars.
Then I splitted this cycle (if it is) into two and into three.
See attached graph.
Of course, if I wish to trade, I should find smaller cycles, as you show with your examples.
Anyway, pls tell me what you think.
In order to find cycles, is this techniques very simple? I mean: just picking lowest lows or highest highs, without any Gann, Elliot or other system?
I can also tell you that I'm very familiar with astrology (many years), but just can't find any practical application to charts (other than plotting planets lines -but still don't use it).

Thanks

Jack, working out static cycles like you've done is one of the simpler and surprisingly accurate methods. I've actually got a couple of videos I'm finishing up that go in to a lot of my static cycle work. I rarely if ever show those here. Gotta keep some stuff to my self. I have no problem sharing the methods. Just not going to give away work.

Anywho, I prefer to work one out in a relative recent time time frame. And then check it going as far back as the chart has data. Usually if you find a number that sticks, it'll stick anywhere. My preference is connecting lows. So I'll connect a couple of lows and then move it around to different lows, highs, etc. Sometimes the original low to low ends up not being the best anchor over time. I'll also do what you've done and divide the cycle. 1/2, 1/4, 1/3 whatever.

I can usually get my static cycles to forecast reactions to the bar on any time frame. There's not much astro that can do that. Even Gann and Fib time slip or what Gann called "lost motion".


Below is one that i worked out on the dow earlier this year. It's been to the bar accurate if going back the last 2 years.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...22%2023.45.gif

Hey Line/7th. I thought your writing style in your Line thread looked familiar. Seriously.. after a few a paragraphs I was pretty sure it was you. You have a very identifiable style.

I never really blasted your threads. Just you. hahaha. I always thought you had good concepts and liked that you were advancing the "science".

Actually, it is good to see that you're still in the game and still developing things and pushing the envelope. I had always wondered what happened with some of the stuff you were developing. You were actually the first one to really open my mind up to the concept of trading time about 8 years ago in some yahoo group. It was over my head at the time but the concept was intriguing. So yeah, you go the last laugh on that one, eh?

Your Line in the Sand is a good concept. I explored something similar a long time ago. Like you say in your thread, the trick is getting the line right. I was using a complex wavy line/moving average type band with a median and using another series of lines as the trigger. When the lines crossed beyond the bands it was just a matter of trading to the median. Wait for another trigger and trade away from the median. I had it built in to the bands to show ATR so that way I never had to adjust them as the ATR changed over time.

Kind of like bollingers but not rubbary at all. They weren't for measuring volatility.. just probable swing range boundaries.

Anywho, good to see ya. I'll be following your thread. Don't worry about me playing games with ya. I've got more stuff on my plate than I can handle and really have no interest in trying to settle any old scores or re-spark up a rivalry in a negative way.

Line, on another note, there are some old timers still around and doing good. Used to go by the handle rufffen @ Moneytec.

Update of the Dow Cycle:

http://content.screencast.com/users/...07%2003.47.gif

A while back I said I was going to slow down on the posting because I had a lot on my plate and blah blah blah.

I applied for and got accepted to trial trade for a prop desk. For this trial period I'm using my own funds and whatever I lose/make is mine and if I get accepted to trade for the desk, I'll move over to trade one of their accounts.

FXCM is their primary broker so I had to open an account there. So I transferred my funds to FXCM from IBFX and left about $150 in my the IBFX account.

For Nov., I've taken a bit of a break from trading the FXCM account because my regular job has required a lot of OT. In the mean time just for poops and giggles and to prove that positive risk/reward is the holy grail, I've been trading what's left in the IBFX account with trades that are basically just eye ball trades with no real thought thrown in there other than figuring a target and where to place stop/limit entries and stop losses. Quite a few of these were just market entries as well. Basically just opening a chart and identifying a few a few buy/sell zones and placing orders based on intuition. Granted, intuition is the culmination of quite a few years of experience, but most of these were not directly based on my cycle, square, or other voodoo methods. Although, my bias was probably based on daily and 4h cycles I maintain. For all intents and purposes, though, it's basically a coin flip.

Below are the results for Nov. thus far. A few key things:

1) Anything under $10 profit was a trailing stop getting triggered except for the 2 towards the end of day Friday. I'm not willing to hold anything over a weekend right now with all of the Greek/Euro crap going on. Anything under $1 was a b/e stop.

2) Risk/Reward of 2:1 means I only need to be accurate 40% of the time to make money. Once in profit and the move is in my favor, I put my stop to b/e and then trail. Trailing means risking that the trade can be in profit but the r/r can end up being less than 2:1. Not a huge deal, but it effects the overall tracking of r/r thus possibly making it lower overall even though the accuracy goes up. I guess that could be considered, as my boss calls it, a "good problem to have." I'd technically consider a b/e trade a loss, so the win% should really be considered less than the report shows.

Most of the time I'm risking $6 or 30 pips to make $12 or 60 pips or more. I'm also trading euro and pound at the same time on quite a few of these so since they're both dollar related, they're somewhat correlated and if I close out one, I typically close out the other at the same time without even looking at both pair's charts. I'm also trading somewhat aggressive in terms of % of account at risk per trade. So with 2 positions open and 30 pips per, I was risking about 8% of the account. Definitely NOT recommended. (for the record, my regular trading risk is less than 2% on initial position entry and scales in to 2%.) Also, I don't plan on changing the amount per trade, thus going forward, the % of account at risk will go lower as the account grows but also the inverse is true.

The real lesson though, is that positive risk/reward ratio is what it is all about. Not forecasting, not nailing tops/bottoms, and certainly not about high accuracy percentage rates, although obviously the higher the accuracy, the better the overall results.

The other part of the lesson is psychology. This is literally an account I don't care about and haven't put much thought or analysis in to other than making sure I'm looking for 2:1. Basically just flipping a coin. By having zero care about the outcome, execution is almost flawless. And by flawless I don't mean every trade is a winner. Flawless means placing the orders based on my r/r plan without hesitation and closing trades without hesitation. No fear of a losing a trade, fear of losing on potential profit, or fear of a hit to the ego. The lack of fear is partly money I don't care about but also largely due to understanding that 40% accuracy is all I need to make money over time and I can flip a coin and do better than 40%.

I've explained this before and been told that it's gambling. No.. it is not gambling. Although the odds of outcome are 50/50, the payout rate is positive. If the payout rate is even or negative, then it is gambling. So by that reasoning, how many of the brick and mortar businesses out there are gambling? How many other businesses have direct control of their risk and reward?

Maybe I'll do that as a test.. literally open a chart and flip a coin and track that over time to prove the point. hmmm.....

Anywho, I'll update the results towards the end of the month.

http://content.screencast.com/users/...07%2004.17.gif

http://content.screencast.com/users/...07%2004.17.gif

@JR97:
have you got my PM?
I am still interested
greetings ziggiii

Excellent Quote:


http://www.rebatemyforex.com/News/Vi...ing-Myths.aspx

A sneak peak of the latest method. Gann Square but based on a square root range and not a price range.

Even after all of these years, I'm still amazed at how well trading time works and how easy it is. I mean seriously.. wait for a vertical line and then go in the other direction.