Cycle Trading

Current Euro short.

I haven't been diligent in maintaining the journal. Quite a bit going on in the personal life. But here is a shot of the latest euro short. Price had been swinging at the major 1/8 divisions of the square. So with pricing rising straight up to a division with oscillator divergence and a 9 count, shorting was the obvious choice. Looks like I nailed the top right on the nose. I shorted with 4 times. Will be taking 2 of those off depending on what happens Sunday/Monday with the remaining two to ride it out with a trailing stop.

Hello
You wanted me to learn how to do this analysis when
You have a wonderful time and price analysis
Thank

It's been a while but I'm back. Latest trade on gbpusd is a perfect squaring.

5th decimal pricing is the dumbest thing ever. I mean seriously... can someone tell me the advantage to it other than screwing up my chart scaling?

Updated with add-on

The trailing stop triggered on the add-on. Original entry still in play. Added another add-on for the short term.

giddyup

The 4h view before and after:

Euro trade. The blue wavy forecast has been pretty good picking up turns and many of the turns are right on square division lines. Also, price was making major turns at the vertical division lines highlighted by the yellow boxes. So the plan was watch how price advanced to the next division vertical. If price drops into it, I would have looked long. Price rose into it so I shorted. And as expected, price reacted pretty big.

The advantage of using time as an indicator is that you can formulate a plan and then just wait for time to arrive and then see how things are going. Sure beats the hell out of waiting for a price and constantly watching for it.

I wasn't going to show this because there were enough things coming together on the chart that wasn't entirely necessary but it was the first thing I looked for when the square was first created in the first chart up there when price had yet to reach that time line and the trade was triggered.

The 1st pulse of a square contains so much information about where and when price is going and it doesn't take rocket science or a bunch of esoteric math skills to figure it out. It just takes counting the squares.

The square is measuring a range highlighted by the yellow trendline going down. The square starts at the beginning of that range. Sometimes I'll start the square at the end of range. It all depends on how things line up inside the square.

In this case every single division line of time was a major reversal so I stuck with it. The first move of the square after the range was the upward move highlighted by another yellow line. This move was exactly 5 1/2 squares of price. So from the top of the move I measured out 5 1/2 squares of time. The time target is right before the time line.

This is normal because many times big swing changes are double tops, a top and a pull back, a triple crown, or head/shoulder. Since all of the time lines were direct hits it was easy to wait for the double top to form, get confirmation that the time line was indeed a major reversal and short the $h!t out of it.

"When price and time square, change is inevitable." ~ WD Gann

Another thing I forgot to mention is that after years of study, experimentation, trading, winning, and losing, I've come to the conclusion that the standard way almost every piece of software, book, or indicator I've seen that deals with the square overlay gets it wrong. That is why the standard measurement rarely has the exact hits mine gets. I believe Gann did this on purpose as he did a lot of things on purpose to throw people off the scent and make them work things out for themselves. He always give you the correct way but not always in a direct way. Patrick Mikula talks about this quite a few times in his writings on Gann as well.

The standard square is based on the price and then measures out the bars. That is not the same as squaring price to time. It's squaring price to whatever the bar time value is. Huge difference.

Tightened up all the stops as a double bottom formed with positive oscillator divergence and they triggered.

Here's all the charts from daily to 30m. I didn't talk about the daily but it was also used in the entry and target analysis.

Trailing stop triggered on the euro. Not bad after a 6 month break, eh? Because the 1st Pound entry was so good, it basically financed adding on all of the add-ons and this euro trade.

EU H4 bullish flag setup, same as GU, just matter of time before we resolve this. Cycles point to the upside likewise. Also JR, do you figure USD CAD is about to go south? 9810-9820 seems like a decent entry on this.

Sorry to kinda interfere with your cycle analysis here, hopefully you don't mind.

Hey ruff! Long time, brah. I don't mind at all. I'll take a look at CAD this weekend. I don't think I've looked at that pair since it's oil boom heydays.

Here's a good one. My overall rule is only buy/sell time when price rises or falls into the forecast line at support or resistance and wait for confirmation.

Last night price was making a reversal at a pivot line but before my forecast time line. It's not uncommon at all for price to make a huge move right before a timeline and then reverse hard after the head fake. In this case I jumped the gun because the reversal pattern at the pivot looked nice and orderly. Only to go hog wild when the time line arrived and shot up to forecast exit time line and price to the bar and pip. But without me because I got stopped out on the fake.

Moreover, I have another trick that picked the drop to the bar as well. So lesson learned on jumping the gun even though it looks like a great setup. "Time" is correct most of the time but it can be easy to get lured in to what looks like a good setup.

On the bright side, I followed my trade management rule by placing a stop (that the market was happy to take out haha) and trading the plan. Execution of the plan wasn't crisp, though but the loss was small and I'll take those all damn day if I had to because my winners can absorb that.

Wow. I just took the trading personality test over at DailyFX. Result:




http://216.34.99.34/survey/336746/5eef/?SFObj=LEAD&SFObjID={!LEAD.ID}&integrationSurveyID=2176

Someone made a video of how I describe how I see the markets. Coolio.

http://vimeo.com/6867881

Looking at CAD, it's tough to say what it's going to do. Pretty much have to let the triangle on the lower frames play out. But looking at the daily, I see a general price/time area. I've attached two different squares from the same range. Both have about the same area for time and somewhat for price based on the red 1x1 line. Just a wild guess from a quick look.