First things first, this is all very basic stuff, you should all know why I'm looking at what I'm looking at. I guess the difference is piecing it all together and making a decision in a matter of seconds. I took the trade (limit order) from that very chart literally 15 seconds after I looked at.
I really don't normally analyse a trade like this, it goes against all I really stand for, so I'd like to point out that not ALL of these remarks are valid in my thought process, I can't tell you exactly what I was thinking at the time or why I took the trade, this is a split second call based on my experience of the market a this level.
Weeks end can be ignored to the long side, it's close, it's a 50, it's weak, the trail off to the short at the asian end is also low volume and weaker than it looks and hence these gaps often fill on open Sunday night.
I drew a fat red line on the chart to represent a 'third' of the whole, or ~30pips of your 100 'whole'. I like thirds, I don't really care for halves.
Ok, so the second half of the chart is clear a move short is on the cards, we've got lower lows and price is holding around the third, common trait. Notice how price dances above, below and around here.
A break south taking out support slap bang in to the ~50, odds on to do that. What's more important here in the move after long, straight back to a clear area of market constipation, lots of trading again around the third, break-outs from here after several tests will be strong and again something people should know already.
So an 'equal' high or 'resistance' that drops back to three equal lows, or near as damn it, there's plenty of movement in the market right now and this is telling. 1.5800 has been touched so many times now, with a downward move rejected once more I see 1.5800 breaking... and look, straight to a third. Target of two thirds for me.
Importantly (perhaps the most important) - the first big move south on my chart at 07:00 has been soaked up in a matter of hours by moves long. I consider this price exhaustion, in my method it's key to success. Mentally draw a triangle around bars, with prior supporting evidence, the shape triangle (price) should weaken towards your entry.
Sorry if that's not black and white but, for me, this is a very quick call and as far as my conscience is concerned there isn't much 'analysis' going on, this is all subconscious or 'experience'.
I might edit this post when I read it back, it's rather quickly typed out.
I really don't normally analyse a trade like this, it goes against all I really stand for, so I'd like to point out that not ALL of these remarks are valid in my thought process, I can't tell you exactly what I was thinking at the time or why I took the trade, this is a split second call based on my experience of the market a this level.
Weeks end can be ignored to the long side, it's close, it's a 50, it's weak, the trail off to the short at the asian end is also low volume and weaker than it looks and hence these gaps often fill on open Sunday night.
I drew a fat red line on the chart to represent a 'third' of the whole, or ~30pips of your 100 'whole'. I like thirds, I don't really care for halves.
Ok, so the second half of the chart is clear a move short is on the cards, we've got lower lows and price is holding around the third, common trait. Notice how price dances above, below and around here.
A break south taking out support slap bang in to the ~50, odds on to do that. What's more important here in the move after long, straight back to a clear area of market constipation, lots of trading again around the third, break-outs from here after several tests will be strong and again something people should know already.
So an 'equal' high or 'resistance' that drops back to three equal lows, or near as damn it, there's plenty of movement in the market right now and this is telling. 1.5800 has been touched so many times now, with a downward move rejected once more I see 1.5800 breaking... and look, straight to a third. Target of two thirds for me.
Importantly (perhaps the most important) - the first big move south on my chart at 07:00 has been soaked up in a matter of hours by moves long. I consider this price exhaustion, in my method it's key to success. Mentally draw a triangle around bars, with prior supporting evidence, the shape triangle (price) should weaken towards your entry.
Sorry if that's not black and white but, for me, this is a very quick call and as far as my conscience is concerned there isn't much 'analysis' going on, this is all subconscious or 'experience'.
I might edit this post when I read it back, it's rather quickly typed out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
"I made all my money by selling too soon"
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