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Gold Discussion

  • #821
  • Dec 7, 2009 5:48am Dec 7, 2009 5:48am
Quoting sinner-
Anyone buying silver at these levels?
@17 maybe
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Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #822
  • Dec 7, 2009 6:30am Dec 7, 2009 6:30am
Quoting silverheat
@17 maybe
I bought an otm 1860 call to expire at the end of comex just now.

Worst case scenario I lose 75USD. Upside is plentiful.

PS: Great sig
  • #823
  • Dec 7, 2009 6:59am Dec 7, 2009 6:59am
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index produced a 22-fold return with dividends reinvested, Treasuries rose 11-fold and cash in the average U.S. checking account rose at least 92 percent. On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold investors are still 79 percent away from getting their money back.
  • #824
  • Dec 7, 2009 7:19am Dec 7, 2009 7:19am
I might start buying gold once we reach 1080. I do not expect it to fall under $1000 anymore. The uptrend is still solid.
  • #825
  • Dec 7, 2009 8:34am Dec 7, 2009 8:34am
Could someone recommend a good site or demo account that will give me charting on gold and silver. Oh and dollar index would be useful, too. Thanks in advance.
Gone to a better place
  • #826
  • Dec 7, 2009 10:31am Dec 7, 2009 10:31am
Quoting smikester
Could someone recommend a good site or demo account that will give me charting on gold and silver. Oh and dollar index would be useful, too. Thanks in advance.
FXPro
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #827
  • Dec 7, 2009 11:59am Dec 7, 2009 11:59am
Quoting pounce
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index produced a 22-fold return with dividends reinvested, Treasuries rose 11-fold and cash in the average U.S. checking account rose at least 92 percent. On an inflation-adjusted basis, gold investors are still 79 percent away from getting their money back.
The trouble with these analysis is that you can pick an choose your starting and ending datums.

For example, this year gold has outperformed. Moreover, it has even outperformed this whole decade, given the current slump etc. Again it has to do with the datums on the graph.

In the present climate gold seems a good investment, but it would be dangerous to be an all out "gold bug" imo.
  • #828
  • Dec 7, 2009 6:43pm Dec 7, 2009 6:43pm
Quoting smikester
Could someone recommend a good site or demo account that will give me charting on gold and silver. Oh and dollar index would be useful, too. Thanks in advance.
I use fxpro and oanda for gold and silver, and freestockcharts.com for the dixie (DXY0). It only prints dxy bars at the end of the day though.
  • #829
  • Dec 7, 2009 6:45pm Dec 7, 2009 6:45pm
I'll share a chart I put on another thread:

http://i48.tinypic.com/35816ar.jpg

http://i48.tinypic.com/e85t2s.jpg
  • #830
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:50am Dec 8, 2009 2:50am
Hey StockJay and Low thanks for the information. Interesting analysis as well, Low. Explains why I felt the need to dump my dollar longs yesterday and only temporarily.
Gone to a better place
  • #831
  • Dec 8, 2009 3:39am Dec 8, 2009 3:39am
Quoting BruntFCA
The trouble with these analysis is that you can pick an choose your starting and ending datums.

For example, this year gold has outperformed. Moreover, it has even outperformed this whole decade, given the current slump etc. Again it has to do with the datums on the graph.

In the present climate gold seems a good investment, but it would be dangerous to be an all out "gold bug" imo.
Doing a long-term investment in gold now would be similar to doing such investment when gold was at $800 in 1980, in my opinion.
  • #832
  • Edited 4:46am Dec 8, 2009 4:34am | Edited 4:46am
Quoting enivid
Doing a long-term investment in gold now would be similar to doing such investment when gold was at $800 in 1980, in my opinion.
why?

edit: i see you say long term, but then whats a good long term investment through a depression?

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...es/1209.h2.gif

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2005/1209.html
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #833
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:22am Dec 8, 2009 5:22am
Quoting BruntFCA
The trouble with these analysis is that you can pick an choose your starting and ending datums.

For example, this year gold has outperformed. Moreover, it has even outperformed this whole decade, given the current slump etc. Again it has to do with the datums on the graph.

In the present climate gold seems a good investment, but it would be dangerous to be an all out "gold bug" imo.
Ofcourse, that is the point.
Everyone and his, know that last year was a great year for gold, and that is not news.

We have to look at a 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 or 30 year frame. And on the 30 year frame, it sucks.

Not for Mr. Buffet this.

Just imagine what it would do if he so much as whispered gold.
In fact, someone with some connections and cash, might make a quick fortune doing a rumor of about Buffet and gold.
  • #834
  • Dec 8, 2009 6:01am Dec 8, 2009 6:01am
Quoting pounce
Ofcourse, that is the point.
Everyone and his, know that last year was a great year for gold, and that is not news.

We have to look at a 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 or 30 year frame. And on the 30 year frame, it sucks.
what 30 year timeframe? after the great depression there was no gold standard anymore, which lasted for centuries. since then the dollar lost ... what? more than 90% of its value
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3309
the us needs to get rid of its debt. by defaulting or printing money. every other currency is backed by usd. there is risk of defaulting us, currency depreciation or collapse, withdrawal restrictions, ... so why not hedge with physical pm. if this never happens i will see on the charts and the action of the government. the only long term investment is property or your own business, and even that a war or government can take away.
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #835
  • Dec 8, 2009 9:32am Dec 8, 2009 9:32am
I agree with silverheat, when I think about gold I look at the economy and not so much "the action" of gold.

Could it be oversold right now? Sure maybe, who knows. One thing that I do know is, like silverheat said, is that the US is in debt up to it's eyeballs. It's not like we are going to pay it off. Our government has no intentions too because if they did then we would not be involved in multiple wars, give out billions in foreign aid, subsidize AIG, Sachs, yadda yadda yadda.

My point is that the next 20 years will be VERY different than the last 20 years and that's why I'm long gold.
  • #836
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:54am Dec 8, 2009 10:54am
Couple of points to note.

1. The gold standard was undone in the 70s by Nixon and not after WWII.

2. Gold has risen against all currencies, not just the greenback.

3. Every country has debt. Many have a whole lot more than the USA as a percentage of GDP.
  • #837
  • Dec 8, 2009 12:11pm Dec 8, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting pounce
1. The gold standard was undone in the 70s by Nixon and not after WWII.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_D...#Gold_standard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_st...2.80.931971.29
...

so what are you saying, that you are short gold long term?
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #838
  • Dec 9, 2009 1:52am Dec 9, 2009 1:52am
President Richard Nixon to eliminate the fixed gold price in........

I am not trying to say it, I have said what I am going to repeat again.

* On a 50 year time-scale, gold looks awful. Not many know/care.
* The recent 2 year gold bull-market is not really news. Everyone knows.
* The last nail in the gold standard coffin was put by President Nixon.
* Gold has risen against all currencies, not just the greenback.
* Many countries have debt and larger than US debt as a % of GDP.
  • #839
  • Dec 9, 2009 2:33am Dec 9, 2009 2:33am
Quoting pounce
President Richard Nixon to eliminate the fixed gold price in........

I am not trying to say it, I have said what I am going to repeat again.

* On a 50 year time-scale, gold looks awful....
well then, what looks good on a 50 year time-scale?

the other points, gold has risen against all currencies, many countries have debts are in favor of gold/commodities, even if on the long term it is a bubble.
Invincibility lies in the defence, the possibility of victory in the attack
  • #840
  • Dec 9, 2009 3:05am Dec 9, 2009 3:05am
Quoting silverheat
well then, what looks good on a 50 year time-scale?
"The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index produced a 22-fold return with dividends reinvested, Treasuries rose 11-fold and cash in the average U.S. checking account rose at least 92 percent."

Quoting silverheat
le?

the other points, gold has risen against all currencies, many countries have debts are in favor of gold/commodities, even if on the long term it is a bubble.
There is no debt in gold/commodities!

I guess you are referring to the US being the only country that issues it's debt ONLY in it's own currency. Other countries debts are in USD, Yen, GBP and others.
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