Gold Discussion

gold @ resistance now. I will only go short when macd turns bearish and if 20 sma the median bollinger band are broken. Fresh longs r out of question now.

It could easily touch $1,200 by the end of November or early December..

whether the gold next week will keep up to $ 1200? because in this day it has fallen to $ 1138

why do you think is better to take a position to buy or sell for 1-week period ahead with the conditions of gold at the present with the 1135 position

U see the thing is that nobody can predict the future !!! i dont know or better.. i dont think that anybody really knows if Gold will reach 1500 or 2000 or 3000 next week or next month... u follow what u see and not what u hear !!! today i saw on my charts that it will probably hit 1150.00 and i went for it... is it gonna happen? DONT REALLY KNOW 100% , but i ll follow my strategy with disiplen and correct MM and i ll find out !!!

wish me Luck !!!

This thing has been a very easy to trade for weeks (just buy each and every dip), but I believe tougher times are ahead.

I posted my weekly update for the week ending Nov. 20, 2009 on my blog

all stochastic tfs >90 atm. K&D!
just blasted through a negative 'wave'
rsi and adx look good

surprised to see such low volatility with the huge moves.

Definately not a good time to buy. Upward breaks of upward channels are never to be trusted.

Seeing support at the 1070 region.

Bro

I heard today is options expiry big lots at 1200 usd hence the push i guess. It is too far for that price but you never know what the big players do about. I personally think it will fall since on weekly charts also macd is topping highly overbought levels. What do u feel bro?

regards
Balaji

I sold at 1161 and pocketed close to 2000 pips....then it went another 400+. I opened a small lot just for fun with a tight SL at 1164, keep seeing/hearing 1200 by end of year and I'm sure it *could* go there, but never trade on the "story" alone ;p

Fact is the USD will keep going down (at least that's my take on things)...

The mother of all bubbles has formed. I see 940 within 3 months, if for no other reason than imminent deleveraging of major funds. Go ahead and flame me about how there's no end in sight to cheap dollars. The wave of euphoria in equities and commods has no fundamental basis, and it needs to crash.

Here are the counter-arguments submitted on 1 Apr 2009 by Jamie Dlugosch, an experienced figure in financial markets. Compare how their outlooks & opinions differ from each other:-

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I will be very blunt.. I despise gold & everything it stands for. It is an abhorrent example of materialism & serves no real purpose. Lust for gold is over-the-top excess & despite the protestations of the goldbugs, there is no real basis for the metal serving the currency needs of the world. The fear mongers will have you believe that the world is collapsing & that inflation has run amok. As a result, the only real currency out there is gold. Given that gold is in finite supply, it should be bought & hoarded.. or so the theory goes. Gold is the only thing that you can count on. What hogwash!

There is no place for gold on the global financial stage!

1. There is no inflation

Whether it is collapsing home prices, discounts on automobiles or reductions in stock prices, asset values across the board are declining, not increasing. The gold bulls state that enemy number-one of the dollar-denominated currency is inflation. I agree wholeheartedly & so does The Federal Reserve. There are many backseat drivers that are claiming it does not truly fight inflation. That is a crock! In reality, inflation during the last bull market occurred due to massive amounts of private capital leverage. Indeed, it did keep interest rates too low for too long in the early part of this decade but do not forget the stated goal of the central bank is to fight inflation. Today, the numbers do not support an inflationary environment & the fears over current spending & stimulus of the government creating inflation is misplaced. I say be not afraid!

2. Gold prices are easily manipulated

One thing I am very afraid of with gold is manipulation. Unlike paper currency that is impossible to manipulate in any way, gold can be accumulated by a group of connected buyers for the sole purpose of eliminating supply from the market. A successful cornering of the market can result in volatile swings in price. Unsuspecting buyers acquire bullion at higher prices only to see a flood of supply hit the market resulting in damaging price collapse. This is exactly what transpired in the 1980s in the silver market. The Hunt brothers did just that with the use of leverage at a time of minimal margin requirements on commodity exchanges. Although the likelihood is low, investors should be cautious with any commodities that can be manipulated in this way. I prefer to avoid it altogether.

3. Gold is in limited supply

Related to manipulation, the simple fact is that there is a limited supply of gold. Those who want to return to the gold standard fail to appreciate that at some points, a lack of supply could have disastrous consequences in a gold-based system. Wars are fought over commodities in short supply. In addition to fighting inflation, The Federal Reserve is also charged with promoting a stable currency. With gold, prices can be far from stable. Though the dollar is not perfect, the system is much more preferable than to hinge our bets on gold. Look at gold mining towns that went boom & bust when supply eroded. The same can happen on a global scale. Gold is not the panacea that the proponents make it out to be.

4. Gold was dead for 20 years

For more than 20 years, the price of gold did nothing. If you invested in gold, you wasted your time. That all changed with fears of inflation & hedge fund speculation several years ago. Today, the church of gold is full of believers. What changed? Nothing really except we have experienced an unprecedented upheaval in the global economy & financial markets. No wonder there has been a flight to gold. The trouble is that the gold rush is not likely to last. In fact, there has been tremendous resistance for gold at $1,000 per ounce. Do you really want to buy at the top? I do not think so. Once the economy stabilizes & we get a return to normalcy with respect to the business cycle (in other words, an ending of the boom/bust period), gold will go back into hibernation. Demand for jewelry cannot absorb the current supply. As such, a strong dollar is likely to absolutely destroy the price of gold. To me, that is the far more likely outcome today.

5. Dollar is the global currency

You may have heard the recent calls from China for a global reserve currency that is not the dollar. Good luck with that one. The dollar is the global reserve currency. Do not underestimate the strength of this country as compared to the rest of the world. Predictions of our demise are premature. Recently, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner emphatically declared his belief in a strong dollar policy. Buying gold is like spitting into the wind then. One thing a trader learns at the start of his training is to never fight The Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department. If you can remove the clouds of crisis, the clear skies ahead provide comfort to me that gold has seen its best days. Those worried about massive deficits need to recall that our country was founded with debt, debt that was ultimately paid back. We make good on our debts, which is why even during this crisis, buyers of Treasury securities remain strong. Note that such buyers could just as easily buy gold. They are not.

*Courtesy of Jamie Dlugosch, InvestorPlace.com, 1 Apr 2009

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im now selling gold on every spike up already 2 sells in place above 1170with pips locked in

Precious metals are mostly a speculative trade, but gold is the mother of them all. Want proof? Gold is up again today, even as other metals are down. Platinum is down 1%, silver is down, but not gold - talk about a BS divergence! Hell, even copper is down, and it actually has clear demand underpinnings for it! Speaking of which, buying the latter earlier in the year would have been a much better trade:

http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/co...rge.html#1year

Just look at it this way, after last years Lowest Low escapades, this year its' Highest High schenanegans... go figure.

I recommend turning your monitor upside down and shorting...

1077 another all time high

As someone mentioned, the blind and over leveraged were able to make easy money on this pair for too long. (Still are) .... have to wonder where the market is getting the funds necessary to pay those who are long, how are such imbalances financed... lol I suppose they are coming from all the USD/JPY longs who are chickening out of their positions around the 88.30 level - I can imagine some even margin called. These markets truly have no pity.

I guess its always important to remember when trading is that when you enter, taking into account the spread - when you push that buy/sell button THE PRICE DOES NOT HAVE TO GO IN YOUR FAVOR, MAYBE NOT FOR A LONGGG TIME.

Tight Sl on associated graph.. if correct, no tp for the foreseeable future.

Sell at 1185.80 -> 1167,55 first target and 1151,55 second target

<quote>...wonder where the market is getting the funds necessary to pay those who are long</quote>

excellent point! jeez i wonder where the market is getting trillions and trillions to drive up gold?

Bernanke's printing press