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Gold Discussion

  • #401
  • Jun 14, 2009 2:47am Jun 14, 2009 2:47am
Quoting zuret9
On the short term basis i feel the market should go down/sideways. If we look at the trend line angles, it is clear to see that the recent short term uptrend is harder to sustain than the recent short term down trend.

If i was long already i would hold and dump my position if the most recent swing low is broken. However, if i am looking to take a position now, the evidence to go long is not as strong as the evidence to go short or stand aside(just looking at the charts and not looking at the fundamentals).
Good explanation with a good chart. Thanks for that. I think it is good to sell only when that blue line is pierced down. Because price is in a very good support level, it isn't wise to go short or at least it is early. What do you think? Well, if that blue zone is pierced, then i don't have a choice. I will definitely go for a sell. Meanwhile, i will still stick with a buy. But your reasoning is very sound.
  • #402
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:26pm Jun 14, 2009 10:26pm
I am posting the gold daily chart. I have posted this on my journal as well.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1245035218

Gold is holding the 50 fib at the moment. Also, the lower trendline is not completely broken yet. And the bigger rectangles I have used shows that it is a key strong support level. All set for a good buy. What do you guys think?

I am buying gold at 935 to 940, but on later part of the day, after watching some activity.
  • #403
  • Jun 15, 2009 4:29am Jun 15, 2009 4:29am
Quoting Xaron
I'm long as well. Actually I don't look at charts so often as they can just misguide one (at least me). Fundamentally (the way I trade) Gold has still a long way to go up. I just scale in and add more longs if it continues to go down, low leverage is the key. The Dollar has to devalue, there is no way around that fact. Inflation will come and we have to be lucky to see no kind of hyperinflation in the Dollar...
The question is when. If you have markets coming out of a recession in the next year would you put your money in gold instead of going for the stocks and the raising DAX, DOW etc ?
  • #404
  • Jun 15, 2009 4:38am Jun 15, 2009 4:38am
Quoting Pirin
The question is when. If you have markets coming out of a recession in the next year would you put your money in gold instead of going for the stocks and the raising DAX, DOW etc ?
Good point. Mr. Xaron, put a stop loss. Scaling is dangerous.
  • #405
  • Jun 15, 2009 5:27am Jun 15, 2009 5:27am
Gold weakened $22 in the last trading session as the dollar rebounded taking Gold to $835 lows. Immediate support comes at $931 (long term trend-line & 55 Daily EMA) with the charts yet to correct to being oversold. Cautious long positions can be considered around $830 for $10-$15. (Gold- $937.40). Bullish
  • #406
  • Jun 15, 2009 6:24am Jun 15, 2009 6:24am
Quoting Pirin
If you have markets coming out of a recession in the next year would you put your money in gold instead of going for the stocks and the raising DAX, DOW etc ?
Yes, I'd prefer Gold then because of the coming inflation.
  • #407
  • Jun 15, 2009 7:39am Jun 15, 2009 7:39am
Interesting view on Gold. In the current uptrend, for each swing high that we've made, we retraced 61.8%.

However, each time we have ret 61.8%, the next swing high has exceeded the prior swing high! The last swing high has not exceeded the prior swing high! There is a minor change we need to be aware of.

Z
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  • #408
  • Jun 15, 2009 12:34pm Jun 15, 2009 12:34pm
Quoting Xaron
Yes, I'd prefer Gold then because of the coming inflation.
  • #409
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:41am Jun 17, 2009 3:41am
I think that we are facing a "W"-recession, we may have risk aversion dominating the market once again, high yielding currencies as the AUD and NZD both failed to break their resistances after an impressive rally, which will give the gold enough strength to test and may be pass $1000, on the second attempt of recovery we'll probably see gold pulling back again to $750, and later if the inflation strikes have a new peak over $1000.
  • #410
  • Jun 17, 2009 4:30am Jun 17, 2009 4:30am
Bernanke will be opening his mouth today. Watch out!
  • #411
  • Jun 18, 2009 1:49am Jun 18, 2009 1:49am
I went short from 939,40. I admit it's a risky time to sell the gold but I think that Obama's new financial regulations plan will cool down inflation expectation, because of the increased liquidity requirements for the major players. So that even though M0 has risen, M1 and M2 will not follow the M0 money supply in direct proportion. Target is 920,65.
  • #412
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:34am Jun 18, 2009 2:34am
Quoting Pirin
I went short from 939,40.
Price has retraced from 50 fib. And PA also shows up move. Best of luck to your trade!
  • #413
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:51pm Jun 18, 2009 3:51pm
Quoting epilogue
Price has retraced from 50 fib. And PA also shows up move. Best of luck to your trade!
Yeah I closed it at 934,54 ... it's too risky, I am up to 70 % sure that gold will decline, but I prefer of playing it out safe. If it goes for ~965 I'll probably short it again.
  • #414
  • Jun 19, 2009 11:14am Jun 19, 2009 11:14am
Quoting Pirin
Yeah I closed it at 934,54 ... it's too risky, I am up to 70 % sure that gold will decline, but I prefer of playing it out safe. If it goes for ~965 I'll probably short it again.
The kind of movement gold is showing at the moment is what I dislike the most. No direction at all. Its not trendy at all compared to currencies.

You are telling that 70% chance for gold to decline. Is it totally based on fundamentals? Do you use technical factors as well? If yes, to what extent?
  • #415
  • Jun 19, 2009 6:36pm Jun 19, 2009 6:36pm
Quoting epilogue
The kind of movement gold is showing at the moment is what I dislike the most. No direction at all. Its not trendy at all compared to currencies.

You are telling that 70% chance for gold to decline. Is it totally based on fundamentals? Do you use technical factors as well? If yes, to what extent?
Of course I use technical analysis as well, the Obama plan was like a spice which made me feel more secure about my decision to short it, I was going to do it anyways. Normally I use statistics software to determinate the risk of a trade, the entry point and the TP, but gold is an exception from this trading method. In this case, the 70 % are plain subjective feeling based on fundamentals, logic and basic technical analysis, they are not backed up by any statistics or mathematical tools. This is where all the insecurity comes from.
  • #416
  • Jun 23, 2009 1:38am Jun 23, 2009 1:38am
Beautiful drop so far, too bad I missed some of it, we might have a small retrace here (914) to 926.
  • #417
  • Jun 23, 2009 1:43am Jun 23, 2009 1:43am
Quoting Pirin
Beautiful drop so far, too bad I missed some of it, we might have a small retrace here (914) to 926.
Exactly. Same feeling here.
  • #418
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:47am Jun 23, 2009 5:47am
So here is the retrace, if anyone wants to short the gold, now is the moment, I'll stay out till i find a good place to buy.
  • #419
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:59am Jun 23, 2009 6:59am
Going short now doesn't look that interesting to me (If one is not already short).

Z
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  • #420
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:25am Jun 24, 2009 4:25am
I'm still shorting until hit at 914
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