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Gold Discussion

  • #381
  • Jun 9, 2009 12:51pm Jun 9, 2009 12:51pm
At this point I am entirely in the dark. Closed some short trades in profit, but there is still one from 929,13 which hangs in minus.
  • #382
  • Jun 10, 2009 12:01am Jun 10, 2009 12:01am
Yah me too... I think it will raise above 962.18 twice with candle stick chart, I could see probability to hit $1,000 again.

Especially the crude oil price kind make me worry.

AUD/USD look bullish, so the gold also bullish, since it have tight correlation usually. Nah... it's just my view. CMIIW. (Blush)
Just a monkey who love to dance and laugh. {Promotion Removed}
  • #383
  • Jun 10, 2009 2:17am Jun 10, 2009 2:17am
Helped by the widely debated re emergence of some weakness in the US dollar, gold finished modestly higher yesterday gaining $1.95 to settle at $955.75/oz. Initially some physical buying added support to the yellow metal but towards closing time the advance was limited as gold ran into technical oriented selling. The reason for that was the violation of a longer term uptrend following the pullback in recent days.
The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.
Support: $946.80 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $982.80 (high of 04/05/09)
Support: $935.55 (low of 21/05/09) Resistance: $966.90 (9 day moving average)
Support: $924.75 (low of 20/05/09) Resistance: $961.80 (yesterday's high)
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  • #384
  • Jun 10, 2009 10:36pm Jun 10, 2009 10:36pm
Hi JS,

Thanks for your technical analysis.

Currently I'm still holding some long position. I would like to know your perspective in current market. Where do you think in short term the market will go?

Thank you.
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  • #385
  • Jun 10, 2009 11:24pm Jun 10, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting sanzaru
Currently I'm still holding some long position.
Thank you.
Hold your position
  • #386
  • Jun 11, 2009 2:50am Jun 11, 2009 2:50am
Initially gold went higher but following the strengthening in the US dollar it ended the trading session into negative territory. However the $2.90 decline in gold seemed to be a consequence of longs liquidating to book profits rather than investors getting short, a sign that markets are still sceptical about a follow through in the greenback's rebound. Technically we saw an 'Outside Day' pattern (higher high and lower low) with the chart showing a price action resembling consolidation move.
The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.
Support: $946.63 (yesterday's low) Resistance: $989.95 (high of 03/05/09)
Support: $935.55 (low of 21/05/09) Resistance: $980.17 (high of 29/05/09)
Support: $924.75 (low of 20/05/09) Resistance: $965.40 (yesterday's high)
  • #387
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:33am Jun 11, 2009 7:33am
Quoting epilogue
Hold your position
I'm still holding and pray that the best outcome in short future. LOL...

I hope today doesn't go below 940. Pleaaasseeeee.....
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  • #388
  • Jun 11, 2009 7:47am Jun 11, 2009 7:47am
Quoting sanzaru
I hope today doesn't go below 940. Pleaaasseeeee.....
If you can, buy at these levels. 940 to 945 is a great buy
  • #389
  • Jun 11, 2009 8:15am Jun 11, 2009 8:15am
Quoting epilogue
If you can, buy at these levels. 940 to 945 is a great buy
I think I'll buy more at 940. Currently 946 while I'm posting this. Thank you for your advice Epilogue.
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  • #390
  • Jun 11, 2009 12:42pm Jun 11, 2009 12:42pm
Yay... 958.85 Rise babe rise..... Win in XAU/USD, yet lose in EUR/USD today.... dunno. should be happy or what. :|

Anyway thx for your suggestion epilogue. It's really2 convince me to take more. More sounds are better than one.
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  • #391
  • Jun 11, 2009 11:25pm Jun 11, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting sanzaru
yet lose in EUR/USD today....
Lost in EUR/USD??
It moves in the same direction as gold. It looks like you are hedging euro with gold.

Just take similar positions in both Gold and EUR/USD. You should be fine.

I made 125 pips on EUR/USD, 11$ on gold and 175 pips on crude oil yesterday, all long. You can see in my journal http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=175039
  • #392
  • Jun 12, 2009 12:07am Jun 12, 2009 12:07am
I'll follow your thread. I hate losing. But at least it keep my head a little cool off.

Thank you.
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  • #393
  • Jun 12, 2009 3:10am Jun 12, 2009 3:10am
Quoting epilogue
Lost in EUR/USD??
It moves in the same direction as gold. It looks like you are hedging euro with gold.

Just take similar positions in both Gold and EUR/USD. You should be fine.

I made 125 pips on EUR/USD, 11$ on gold and 175 pips on crude oil yesterday, all long. You can see in my journal http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=175039
  • #394
  • Jun 12, 2009 9:42pm Jun 12, 2009 9:42pm
A little head and shoulder pattern 939.27. Mmmhh.....

Is going down again till 930 or going to rise back?

The COT report show most large speculator and small speculator going long, while the commercial going short this week.

Any suggestion?
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  • #395
  • Jun 12, 2009 10:04pm Jun 12, 2009 10:04pm
Quoting sanzaru
Is going down again till 930 or going to rise back?
Any suggestion?
Price is around the 50 fib retracement on the daily. Going long is much better. Also, astrologically, the rally should continue from monday. I am going long on monday.
  • #396
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:31am Jun 13, 2009 8:31am
Quoting epilogue
Price is around the 50 fib retracement on the daily. Going long is much better. Also, astrologically, the rally should continue from monday. I am going long on monday.
We are at a key zone that has acted well as a resistance band on the daily and not so well as support! Looking further inward, on the 4hour chart, i don't see any good signs of an uptrend continuation. I am looking to see what price does in the next few days around this zone before taking a position (although i am heavily bias towards the downside).

Z
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  • #397
  • Jun 13, 2009 9:08pm Jun 13, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting zuret9
resistance band on the daily and not so well as support! (i am heavily bias towards the downside).
Well, if you just raise your band by few millimeters, you can see that previous resistance is turning into a support. And even if it has to go down, i don't think it can pierce that support band (your resistance band) so easily. It must go up by a good margin first. In any case, long is good. Just my thought though. I would like to hear from you.
  • #398
  • Jun 14, 2009 2:02am Jun 14, 2009 2:02am
I'm long as well. Actually I don't look at charts so often as they can just misguide one (at least me). Fundamentally (the way I trade) Gold has still a long way to go up. I just scale in and add more longs if it continues to go down, low leverage is the key. The Dollar has to devalue, there is no way around that fact. Inflation will come and we have to be lucky to see no kind of hyperinflation in the Dollar...
  • #399
  • Jun 14, 2009 2:25am Jun 14, 2009 2:25am
I agree, looking at the chart only it looks like there is more down potential. I think we might see a fake breakout to the south to cash in some stops.
  • #400
  • Jun 14, 2009 2:26am Jun 14, 2009 2:26am
Quoting epilogue
Well, if you just raise your band by few millimeters, you can see that previous resistance is turning into a support. And even if it has to go down, i don't think it can pierce that support band (your resistance band) so easily. It must go up by a good margin first. In any case, long is good. Just my thought though. I would like to hear from you.
On the short term basis i feel the market should go down/sideways. If we look at the trend line angles, it is clear to see that the recent short term uptrend is harder to sustain than the recent short term down trend.

If i was long already i would hold and dump my position if the most recent swing low is broken. However, if i am looking to take a position now, the evidence to go long is not as strong as the evidence to go short or stand aside(just looking at the charts and not looking at the fundamentals).

Z
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