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Cycle Trading

  • #101
  • Feb 27, 2009 8:15am Feb 27, 2009 8:15am
Closed out profits on some of my most aggressive trading ever. I shorted the double top on the g/j from the top. I added on more aggressively than usual and it paid off handsomely. Pretty risky from a "betting" stand point, but the setup was there and adding on with house money instead of betting more up front is one way to maximize profits and minimize risk.

I'm looking to short again on a retrace and follow-through.
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  • #102
  • May 7, 2009 6:24am May 7, 2009 6:24am
holy moley your stuff is amazing i am happy to find your thread! do you have more updates anywhere else? i love your work!
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #103
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:36am Aug 20, 2009 9:36am
Quoting JR97
Closed out profits on some of my most aggressive trading ever. I shorted the double top on the g/j from the top. I added on more aggressively than usual and it paid off handsomely. Pretty risky from a "betting" stand point, but the setup was there and adding on with house money instead of betting more up front is one way to maximize profits and minimize risk.

I'm looking to short again on a retrace and follow-through.

I'm very interested in your trading strategy, I followed your thread here and your blog, but this sit Is NOT valid, I could not get access to it: 'www.time-traders.com'
I'd contact you, but dont know how.

Jean

  • #104
  • Aug 20, 2009 9:57am Aug 20, 2009 9:57am
Quoting JR97
Thanks, man. I've got some other "natural cycle" work I did years ago that I wish I had paid attention to. I've got a 5 year cycle that nailed the start of the big GBPUSD drop. I was too busy playing in 80's hair metal cover bands this summer to be bothered with trading.

Below are the before and aftermath on weekly charts.

I love your analysis work. I like Michael S. Jenkins' work very much and it seems to me that your study is following Jenkins to some degree.

Jean
  • #105
  • Aug 24, 2009 2:53pm Aug 24, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting jeandl
I love your analysis work. I like Michael S. Jenkins' work very much and it seems to me that your study is following Jenkins to some degree.

Jean
time-traders.com got hit hard by some injected obfuscated php code. I tried to salvage it for quite a while but finally gave up. I'm working on getting a new and improved site up soon. New version will have some online tools so people can sing along if they'd like.

I'm very familiar with Jenkins. Good stuff. I wouldn't say my stuff follows his as much as it is that we're both more or less inspired by the same lines of thought. Although his work with the parabola is something I use often.
  • #106
  • Mar 15, 2010 10:16am Mar 15, 2010 10:16am
It's been a while since I've posted here. My website kept getting infected and the bastage host wanted to charge me extra for "protection". Sounds like a mafia racketeering scheme I've ever heard of one. So screw them. Anywho, I've been trading off and on since xmas trying to get my game back and have had good success with the simple techniques.

I'm going to try and be more active in my posts since people keep asking me where I've been and when the website will be back up. Plus, there seems to be a growing interest in this type trading which is good to see. Trade analysis coming soon!
  • #107
  • Mar 26, 2010 3:56pm Mar 26, 2010 3:56pm
EUR/USD

Attached are the screenshots from the most recent trade based on the 4h chart and some static cycles. First shot is of estimated market turning point.

Second chart is entry. Cycles don't always fall spot on the time markers, so it's important to wait for some sort of confirmation. In this case, I dropped down to a 15 min. chat and used standard pivot points. (no screenie of that)

Third chart is a daily chart of the entry showing the larger cycle I was waiting for.

Last chart is exit based of 15 min. pivots. I'm also looking to re-enter and go long again.
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  • #108
  • Mar 31, 2010 3:01pm Mar 31, 2010 3:01pm
I posted the latest trade here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3090

I'm holding long and looking for more opportunities to add-on. One of the things I do is forecast market turns as a reversed moving average of the chart's history.... ie a mirror forecast. Below is a daily chart where the mirror forecast is the yellow ma looking thing. The key to this type of forecast isn't to pay attention to the direction of the ma, but where the turns are. The thing will invert like crazy. Magnitude also means nothing. I highlighted in magenta, the section of the cycle where I think current price is. I also highlighted the area where I'm expecting either a turn or some or consolidation or a retrace. So the game plan is to start building a long position in anticipation of that area. It's not a sure thing.. nothing ever is.. but it gives me a good time target. Then I'll just let price take care of itself.
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  • #109
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:45pm Mar 31, 2010 6:45pm
The images below shows how on a 5 min. chart the forecast was pretty spot on for forecasting today's move up. One chart shows an end of square that also coincides with a different squaring at the 1/2 way mark. Enough confluence to look for a tradeable move? We'll see.
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  • #110
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:09pm Apr 1, 2010 10:09pm
noticed your posts on the eu redux thread.
it's great u are a bit active again.
  • #111
  • Apr 2, 2010 1:14pm Apr 2, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting supremeChaos
noticed your posts on the eu redux thread.
it's great u are a bit active again.
thanks, brah. It's either this or poker, and it's tough to get a lot of poker where I live.
  • #112
  • Apr 2, 2010 8:11pm Apr 2, 2010 8:11pm
either FX or poker?
haha, how great is that.
  • #113
  • Apr 2, 2010 9:01pm Apr 2, 2010 9:01pm
In an older post, I alluded to an inverse mirror image. Similar to when price makes a perfect mirror image of itself, it will also make inverted mirrored images. They're not always easy to spot, but when you do some cycle measurements, they pop up a lot easier. I may have spotted one on the EUR/USD Daily chart.
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  • #114
  • Apr 3, 2010 6:22am Apr 3, 2010 6:22am
Quoting JR97
In an older post, I alluded to an inverse mirror image. Similar to when price makes a perfect mirror image of itself, it will also make inverted mirrored images. They're not always easy to spot, but when you do some cycle measurements, they pop up a lot easier. I may have spotted one on the EUR/USD Daily chart.
noticed that too.. but didnt know there is a term for that.
as an inverted mirror image of the top ellipse, the bottom one seems to be turned left to right & upside-down. is that correct?
Thanks Sir!
  • #115
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:27pm Apr 4, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting supremeChaos
noticed that too.. but didnt know there is a term for that.
as an inverted mirror image of the top ellipse, the bottom one seems to be turned left to right & upside-down. is that correct?
Thanks Sir!
I don't know if there is a term. That's just what I call it. As far as left to right and upside-down, I guess so. I don't really pay attention to that. I mainly pay attention as to whether there is a similar reaction at the certain point of time. May not be exact or in proportion.

A better example is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=99
  • #116
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:39pm Apr 4, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting JR97
I don't know if there is a term. That's just what I call it. As far as left to right and upside-down, I guess so. I don't really pay attention to that. I mainly pay attention as to whether there is a similar reaction at the certain point of time. May not be exact or in proportion.

A better example is here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=99
Hi JR97,
great thread and nice analysis . do you have some analysis for G/U right now?
  • #117
  • Apr 6, 2010 3:02am Apr 6, 2010 3:02am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi JR97,
great thread and nice analysis . do you have some analysis for G/U right now?
Thanks for the up thumb.

I currently don't have anything for G/U, but I'll probably be getting back to trading primarily G/U since it's range is historically wider than E/U.
  • #118
  • Apr 14, 2010 11:05pm Apr 14, 2010 11:05pm
Between being swamped at worked and having pneumonia for the last 2 weeks, i haven't posted much. Here is last night's play. First chart shows short entry on square. Then watch how price plays out in the geometry. Pretty cool.
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  • #119
  • Apr 15, 2010 10:09am Apr 15, 2010 10:09am
Profitable trading last night trading a 30min. square.
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  • #120
  • Apr 16, 2010 10:24am Apr 16, 2010 10:24am
30 Min. Square continued to put lots of pips in my pocket. I"m long now and looking to go long on any retraces and follow through.
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