Silver: Strongest Volatility In The Market

quite right my friend
well good luck to u
but we can still try to analyze it technically to make some good pips

Hey,
I really don't pay too much attention to the news, but the charts are pointing down. Daily going to 14.877 and so is the weekly. Any moves up will be inside retracements of the last strong down move. If price can make it up to close past 19.562, I'll reevaluate. But fibs as of now point down.

Scotty B

I post on this forum on the USD/JPY thread and Knowledge Is Power thread.

I am an expert currency trader however as part of my job I needed to become an expert on Gold and Silver. It is clear that there is some knowledgeable folks here and perhaps as was suggested we can keep this thread going forward with valuable information that can be shared. I have been following Gold and Silver for over 40 years now as I am 64 years young.

I will contribute information here and also post some great links that I have located over the years. You have a very clear understanding of all of the needed fundamentals. The 2 Year and 10 Year US Bonds need to be part of your information input to see the direction of Gold and Silver. Oil also plays a factor. Much more so now than ever. It is quite possible now to know the direction that the FED will take as their choices are very limited due to the distress in the housing market and the banking system. There is not much chance they will increase rates for the moment regardless what they hint at.

In fact they cause the inflation because of their irresponsible printing of US Dollars. The END is written in STONE. The timing is not. Whenever Gold reaches $1500 US and it will, Silver will be trading at $30.00 which at 50 to 1 seems to be the new multiplier rather than the previous 16 to 1.

A GREAT site for information related to Gold and Silver and a FREE site as well is run by probably the BEST Gold Analyst in the world in my opinion. I have been logging onto his Website since 1999. He is a Commodity trader, President of a Gold company and by his accurate calls just the most reliable one that I read.

If you are interested in checking it out please go to the following Website.

Enjoy !!! WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Link For Current Charts:

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/M..._5-30-2008.pdf


Bruce

http://www.small-business-goldmine.c...ipulation.html


Enjoy !!!


Bruce

thnx warren

thats how this thread should be

and the articles are great and so are the charts

hey man
from ur charts

and technically speaking(not fundamentaly) looks like dollar index found some strong resistance and might be heading towards 80ish area.

any thoughts on that????

Anything is possible however there is many fundamental reasons why the odds are not very in favor of that. Here are my reasons.

The main reason that the US Dollar got stronger last week was mainly by the actions (Verbal) of some of the FED members. The markets bought it hook, line and sinker. The yields on the 2 Year USA bonds and the 10 Year USA bonds went through the roof. The FED discount rate is now at 2.00% down from 5.25% and that is the Main Reason the US Dollar became much weaker and Gold and Oil went up in price.

The worst enemy of the FED and the World FIAT system is GOLD. They always try to suppress it and in the end they always fail. Who are they ?

(1) Roman Empire
(2) British Empire
(3) US Empire (Spelled 1913 and the FED) The Bankers !!!

Gold and Silver are and always have been the supreme store of wealth because it cannot be printed and is in short supply and it takes about 7 years to bring new sources to market.

Since the FED for the moment CANNOT raise rates they try to convince the markets they might and PERCEPTION sometimes is STRONGER than reality.

Why will they not raise for the moment ? Moment is at least 6 months in my learned opinion. They will cause the collapse of the US economy and actually cause the collapse of the last bubble !!!

The last bubble of the last 10 years is the US Stock Market.

That will lead to the unwinding of the YEN carry trade of perhaps over One Trillion Dollars. Add to this equation the continuing collapse of the US housing market (See The Recent Case Schiller House Index) and the still to come One Trillion Dollar losses in the World Banking System. This comment comes from the IMF not exactly a friend of Gold or Silver.

So if the FED cannot raise what do they do ? Not a thing or perhaps even cut ? The next 3 months will be telling. Factor in the November Presidential elections and expect much FUN and Games !!!

This Week is ISM and ADP and NFP !!! A Very interesting week to say the least.

The US Dollar Index would need to go up at least 2 more full basis points for me to change my thinking. The odds are good that we will soon see a retest of the lows. Look at the comments by Dan Norcinni on the US Dollar Index Charts at: WWW.JSMINESET.COM

I hope I have given you some insight and answered your questions.


Bruce

i fully agree with what u have written

but i there is one point that u missed
dollar gained last week mainly because oil fell almost 11$ to 124 and then back to 127

When Oil dropped as you correctly pointed out an AMAZING event took place that I spotted IMMEDIATELY and I was happy to hear Art Cashin of CNBC confirm the next day when it started to reverse itself.

I was watching the YIELDS on the 2 Year and 10 Year US Treasuries (Bond) go through the roof as Bonds were being sold perhaps in the Trillions of US Dollars. Gold was going down. Oil was going down. Silver was going down and YES The Stock Market was NOT going UP the 400 Points that Art Cashin, a real veteran said was possible.

WHY NOT ?

As I saw and Art confirmed MONEY was flowing at incredible VELOCITY into US Dollars IN CASH hidden in the Mattress of the Hedge Funds or in other hands waiting to see if Oil would continue to collapse. It DID not and the CASH started returning to Oil, Gold, Silver, Dow, 2 Year Bonds and 10 Year Bonds.

Follow the Money and you have a EDGE knowing what is going on.

IT WAS A PANIC and POPPED UP the US Dollar Short Term.

The FED WILL NOT RAISE in the near future.

Bruce

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0530.html


Bruce

I see oil almost certainly heading for $150 per barrel. If this momentum continues, Silver should follow suit to over 18.00, if not higher. Any thoughts?

if oil hits 150
then yeah i think we would even be back for 19-->20$ for silver but thats 25$ away

so far no signs of 150 on the horizon

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0602.html


Bruce

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


Bruce

ok back to silver
seems like the slowest day it had in a very long time

could be that its waiting for bernanke to finish his speech

ok fellow traders looks like dollar is having a change of heart
like i mentioned in previous posts and its about time

so this could mean that silver might actually hit 15 in these 2 weeks unless bad news from dollar comes out or oil starts hiking again

Have A Look !!!

Link:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=43261


Bruce

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1212764222.php

Snippet:

But, let’s focus on 2008. This year, adding up the numbers, new mining supply will be 557,400,000 troy ounces, or 17,337.08 metric tons. In contrast, demand is 1,382,100,000 troy ounces, or 42,988.12 metric tons. That would mean a deficit of 824,700,000 troy ounces or 25,651.04 metric tons. However, part of this deficit can and will be met by recycled silver. According to the Fortis 2008 Silver Book (which I view as somewhat less accurate than CPM), recycling of used silver form former use in photographic, coin, jewelry and other uses, will amount to 13,558 metric tons. That still leaves a net deficit of -12,093.04 metric tons, in 2008. The Fortis people, based on all their numbers, somehow calculate a surplus in virtually every year since 2000, including 2008. That, of course, is logically impossible, because if there were a surplus, the price would not have gone up by about 4 xs during that time period. So, by using the numbers from CPM, combined with those of Fortis, we probably get a more accurate idea of the true situation. Given the deficit, or at least the fact that there is unlikely to be any surplus, where will COMEX based derivatives dealers get silver to back up their pledges of future delivery?

<SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana">

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2008/0620.html

Snippet:

Breakout!

by Peter Degraaf | June 20, 2008

Print
Gold is breaking out on the upside today, after having been contained in a bullish pennant formation for the past 93 days. This 93 day period satisfies the time element, (referring to the average of the late spring – early summer pull-backs in gold), since the current bull market began, in 2001.
Virtually every year we witness a Christmas rally in gold, with the seasonal lows coming in the spring, following a correction towards the 200DMA.
Here are the months during which these seasonal lows have occurred since 2001
• 2001 in April
• 2002 in February
• 2003 in April
• 2004 in May
• 2005 in May
• 2006 in June
• 2007 in June
• 2008 on May 2nd, with a secondary (higher) low on June 12th.
• Every year since 2001, once this seasonal low was in place, the market rose higher during the remainder of the year, culminating in the annual Christmas rally.
An upside breakout, such as the one we are witnessing today (Friday June 20th), will confirm this secondary bottom and will attract a lot of traders who are currently on the sidelines, to commit funds to the gold sector.
Charts courtesy www.stockcharts.com
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...es/0620.h1.gif
Featured is the daily gold chart. Price is breaking out from beneath the downsloping resistance line today (blue arrow). Price tested the support at the 200DMA last week, and the support held. According to market expert Joseph Granville: “In a bull market, when the 200DMA is rising, each time ‘price’ visits the 200DMA, it represents a buying opportunity.”
One reliable sign of a bull market is when the 50DMA is in positive alignment to the 200DMA, while the 200D is rising, (as now).
The supporting indicators are positive (green lines). The target for this breakout is a test of the previous high at $1,030.00.


Bruce

sorry bruce but i havent around much
taking a look at silver now