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Gold at 1000USD!

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 21, 2008 3:30am Feb 21, 2008 3:30am
Will be Gold at 1000USD the trigger to a major retrace of EURUSD and other related USD Currencies.
I am not telling the change of Trend, because if we see USD index even if a gain to around 84/85 points Trend in past 5 Years will continue, then will be a fight to change trend around 86.

My bet it is to see EURUSD at 1.35 this year, even 1.30 it is a possible Target.
  • #2
  • Feb 22, 2008 1:12am Feb 22, 2008 1:12am
I don't think you're going to be seeing any retracement of the EURUSD any time soon. The relative values they're at was a long overdue correction, with the dollar being 30% overvalued for years. Gold at 1000USD is because the USD is weak and will continue to stay weak relative to other world currencies, at a minimum of another year. The U.S. economy is having a recession on top of the protracted USD slide. There is major credit card defaulting (from overspending in the U.S. for nearly a decade) and also problems with the housing market (that Greenspan worked so hard to soften). The USD is going to be weak for a while. My advice is not to hold your breath on that one. Look for better opportunities.
  • #3
  • Feb 22, 2008 1:42am Feb 22, 2008 1:42am
Quoting BoredToLoose
Will be Gold at 1000USD the trigger to a major retrace of EURUSD and other related USD Currencies.
I am not telling the change of Trend, because if we see USD index even if a gain to around 84/85 points Trend in past 5 Years will continue, then will be a fight to change trend around 86.

My bet it is to see EURUSD at 1.35 this year, even 1.30 it is a possible Target.

There have been a bucket load of analysts on the networks singing this song the last few weeks. Most of them are talking about the 2nd half of the year.

I assume that anything being pushed by the networks is probably tainted. Even if they have no agenda, they have a 50% chance of being right/wrong, just like us. You don't get better odds nowadays.

Ignore the mouth, watch the hands and feet. Let's see what she does, now what someone else says she's going to do.
  • #4
  • Mar 4, 2008 2:15am Mar 4, 2008 2:15am
Fair enough. Let's stay tuned and watch what happens. I just think, looking at what's happening with the US economy, it's inconceivable for me to think that the dollar is going to strengthen against the Euro this year. You've got lower Interest rates (another half point cut recently), a recession, credit problems, housing correction, threat of inflation. I mean, the deck is stacked. And it's not in the dollar's favour.
  • #5
  • Mar 4, 2008 3:08am Mar 4, 2008 3:08am
I stick to my own opinion though that dollar will play a serious recovery versus aud, nzd, gbp, and eur and i still see price action in gbp/usd toppish.

The USD situation favours more usd selling in the wake of weak economic calendar and housing market problems. But, Eurozone is not perfect, nor the UK calendar.

Actually, with more credit crunch and concerns this will only lead to sell off in carry funded positions like audusd, nzdusd, and buying of usdcad. which means that the us dollar will strengthen from that.
  • #6
  • Mar 4, 2008 6:40am Mar 4, 2008 6:40am
Quoting David Clarke
I don't think you're going to be seeing any retracement of the EURUSD any time soon. The relative values they're at was a long overdue correction, with the dollar being 30% overvalued for years. Gold at 1000USD is because the USD is weak and will continue to stay weak relative to other world currencies, at a minimum of another year. The U.S. economy is having a recession on top of the protracted USD slide. There is major credit card defaulting (from overspending in the U.S. for nearly a decade) and also problems with the housing market (that Greenspan worked so hard to soften). The USD is going to be weak for a while. My advice is not to hold your breath on that one. Look for better opportunities.
The line about Greenspan "worked so hard to soften" is so funny. That right he was trying to help...unreal.
  • #7
  • Mar 4, 2008 11:17am Mar 4, 2008 11:17am
Help!!! Help!!! Helppppppp!!!! My parachute malfunction.. I couln't open it!!! AAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa........

Keep on FALLING ... FALLING... FALLING ......

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2088/...663318b0_o.png

Yesterday... my mama said:

Quoting Malaysia
It's becoming so expensive already... even my Mama start thinking of SELLING some GOLD in the treasure box

Plus... OIL can't remains very expensive... sooner or later... INTERVENTION will take place to reduce the price down. The only question... WHEN?
  • #8
  • Mar 4, 2008 11:25am Mar 4, 2008 11:25am
kih kih
  • #9
  • Mar 6, 2008 12:35am Mar 6, 2008 12:35am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
The line about Greenspan "worked so hard to soften" is so funny. That right he was trying to help...unreal.
TIckerShuffl,

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or being critical, but here's what I remember. Greenspan not only created the housing bubble with "easy money" rates (1% in 2002) that were the lowest on record, but he helped to pop it as well.

(Let's think back to the end of the '90's too, when Greenspan yanked the rug out from under the economy by jacking rates to crush the tech bubble. It's deja vu.)

Just after the turn of the century, as more and more people kept borrowing money at cheap rates to invest in the investment du jour as an alternative to tech equities of the '90's, housing prices skyrocketed to levels that were out of sight.

Greenspan then signalled that the party was over and that housing had to retreat to more reasonable levels. He promptly raised rates for a sustained period of time and relentlessly dished out rhetoric to soften housing. At first, no market reaction. Eventually, it hit hard.

Consumers now find themselves saddled with the highest levels of debt ever with most of their net worth tied up in their homes. Easy money lending led people who couldn't even afford down payments to get into adjustable mortgages that were doomed for default as soon as rates rose again.

I guess you could call that "helping". I guess it depends on what side of the dime you're on.
  • #10
  • Mar 6, 2008 1:39pm Mar 6, 2008 1:39pm
...and again, and again. Get used to it.

Today: An excellent article on Yahoo! Finance:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080306/dollar.html?.v=9

The European Central Bank kept its benchmark rate steady while the U.S. released some poor economic reports.

In essence, for those of you who don't have the time to click over to Yahoo, this means that there is hardly any reason for the dollar to strengthen in the short-term (6 months) against the Euro (or Yen or Australian dollar).

"The euro has been bolstered by a string of downbeat U.S. economic reports, too, that has driven the dollar lower and lower as fears of a U.S. recession mount."

"Speculation has mounted that the Fed might cut rates by as much as three-fourths of a percentage point this month. Lower interest rates can jump-start a nation's economy. But they can also weaken its currency as traders transfer funds to countries where they can earn higher returns."

There is still significant downward pressure on rates in the U.S. to stop the economy from fizzling. Until that pressure is gone, the dollar is not going to make any significant retracement.
  • #11
  • Mar 6, 2008 8:37pm Mar 6, 2008 8:37pm
David,

I am following your threads. Your observation and intuition seems clear. Regarding currencies, what is your perspective regarding upcoming U.S. elections and how the dollar will fare? Different policies indeed. Bush policies and lax control over lending policies (and massive debt) ... all this is obvious. And any comments on China's role? Three forex brokers called me in the past 48 hours. I have built a spreadsheet to track them all. Have spoken with DBFX, Saxo, FXCM, Interbankfx and a few others. You mentioned Atwood & James a few weeks back. I received their mail insert. Curious, I spoke to one of the key traders there who talked of selling gold this week, and thumbs down on the dollar for months to come. They are in Rio? Small players, yes? I am curious regarding the nature of your trades with any small brokers. An example of which currencies were bought and sold, and when, and how you made out (or lost). I can help you also. I have extensive background trading common stock on NYSE and Nasdaq, many business associates in U.S. I purchased ASA, Ltd in September on an uptrend (South Africa Gold Mine), now up 50% and I'm holding.(?). I average 35% per year-consistent, and spent $5k last year on newsletters. Gathering much more info here before I jump into Forex.
  • #12
  • Mar 6, 2008 9:13pm Mar 6, 2008 9:13pm
Quoting Jyoti D
David,

I am following your threads. Your observation and intuition seems clear. Regarding currencies, what is your perspective regarding upcoming U.S. elections and how the dollar will fare? Different policies indeed. Bush policies and lax control over lending policies (and massive debt) ... all this is obvious. And any comments on China's role? Three forex brokers called me in the past 48 hours. I have built a spreadsheet to track them all. Have spoken with DBFX, Saxo, FXCM, Interbankfx and a few others. You mentioned Atwood & James a few weeks back. I received their mail insert. Curious, I spoke to one of the key traders there who talked of selling gold this week, and thumbs down on the dollar for months to come. They are in Rio? Small players, yes? I am curious regarding the nature of your trades with any small brokers. An example of which currencies were bought and sold, and when, and how you made out (or lost). I can help you also. I have extensive background trading common stock on NYSE and Nasdaq, many business associates in U.S. I purchased ASA, Ltd in September on an uptrend (South Africa Gold Mine), now up 50% and I'm holding.(?). I average 35% per year-consistent, and spent $5k last year on newsletters. Gathering much more info here before I jump into Forex.
Hi Jyoti, something you might want to keep in mind about trading currency, most over here are short term traders/position traders. I see you come from a stock trading background, and seems like you have done pretty well. Don't sway too far from that mentality when dealing with currencies. If you stick to the macro end of things you would do well. If you are looking for good brokers, you may want to try Interactive brokers, stay away from dealing desk brokers and bucket shops as much as you can. Feel free to pm me if you need further info
  • #13
  • Mar 13, 2008 10:00pm Mar 13, 2008 10:00pm
I belive that say "gold will reach 1000usd in 1-2-3 days" is like to say: "the heart rotate on itself"


Yes!!! 100% true!!!
Right today (13-03-2008) gold breakout a nice daily bull frag/pennant (not sure what exactly was), anyway the 1000 will be reached within 1-2 max 3 days i think
  • #14
  • Dec 22, 2008 1:17pm Dec 22, 2008 1:17pm
Quoting Malaysia
Help!!! Help!!! Helppppppp!!!! My parachute malfunction.. I couln't open it!!! AAAAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa........

Keep on FALLING ... FALLING... FALLING ......

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2088/...663318b0_o.png

Yesterday... my mama said:

Your:
I am only interested on how long you have survive in this hazardous market.

Is it not:
I am only interested on how long you have survived in this hazardous market.
Request custom Expert Advisor or Indicator: dostapyuk "at" gmail . com
  • #15
  • Dec 22, 2008 8:38pm Dec 22, 2008 8:38pm
When the amount of money required for future delivery of an item is lower than the amount required for immediate delivery of that item, it is referred to as backwardation and gold is currently going through this uncommon phase. What will this cause if that lasts? For how long can a commodity be in backwardation?
  • #16
  • Edited Dec 24, 2008 2:48am Dec 23, 2008 6:42pm | Edited Dec 24, 2008 2:48am
Peter

Are you referring to the spot price of gold being higher than the near futures?

I have checked my futures charts and gold is still in a normal market but the spread has tightened.

When a market goes inverted it can be a signal for a strong bull move.

Crude for example went inverted in July 07 and the run lasted until June but the market had reverted to normal in May.
Copper had been in an inverted market for years only recently reverting to normal.

It means there is a shortage of supply and people are prepared to pay extra to ensure supply in the near term.

I would say it applies more to industrial commodities where industries want to ensure supply and also agricultural commodities where harvests have been affected by the weather for example.


The tightening of the spreads in gold may be because there is no real direction at the moment and not necessarily a supply issue:-that remains to be seen

Gold is more like a currency and it's price is driven by it's use as an inflation hedge and a safe haven,rather than it's industrial and jewelry use.
The tightening of the gold premium certainly gives weight to the argument that there is a big move due before long.
Which way,I don't know,nor for how long.Or indeed if there will be one.

Another thing to note is that a lot of futures have displayed unusual moves recently with Euro and cable futures tightening and actually "inverting" recently as has the S&P
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #17
  • Dec 23, 2008 8:34pm Dec 23, 2008 8:34pm
Given the fact that the Oz dollar is strongly affected by gold behavior and it is known to be a sort of a commodity currency, how can this eventual shortage of supply affect the currency in a longer term?
  • #18
  • Dec 24, 2008 2:56am Dec 24, 2008 2:56am
Dean

I have just added to the previous post to say that backward markets are potential precursors to bull moves,but,whether there is a supply issue in gold I am not sure.

I think the tightening of the calender spread is a sign of possibly a move after a direction is confirmed.

As to AUS I couldn't really say.Only thing to note is that gold led the fall peaking in March then making a lower high at 76% retrace the same day as AUS peaked
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #19
  • Last Post: Dec 24, 2008 8:48am Dec 24, 2008 8:48am
With the different futures months prices being very tight it gives the possibility of a low risk spread trade.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backwardation

Gold and silver are not known for going inverted so really this gives a trade with very little risk.Though of course there is always an exception to prove the rule.


It depends if you have a broker that trades commodities and does calender spreads.

One thing to consider though is that the trade may take a while to show profit as silver and gold spreads have tightened slowly over the last 2 months and it could take a while for them to widen again.
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
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