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im not gonna take a trade until near the close today ifn i get a buy/sell signal to hold over the weekend since this is the tariff D-day
short trump and go long the deepstate
- #66,301
- Jul 23, 8:02am (1 hr 45 min ago) Jul 23, 8:02am (1 hr 45 min ago)
- Joined May 2022 | Status: Trader | 8,385 Posts
im not gonna take a trade until near the close today ifn i get a buy/sell signal to hold over the weekend since this is the tariff D-day
- #66,303
- Jul 23, 8:03am (1 hr 44 min ago) Jul 23, 8:03am (1 hr 44 min ago)
{quote} first thing trump hasn’t lied about in a while
- #66,304
- Jul 23, 8:04am (1 hr 42 min ago) Jul 23, 8:04am (1 hr 42 min ago)
- Joined Aug 2020 | Status: Zeroing In on Chaos | 2,080 Posts | Online Now
{quote} yes, but 3750(!) as a level can play for itself.., then of course 3500(?!)...we are talking about gold, right(??!) safe trades
but not the deal now, market still blur blur to me now lol, no signal of showing hand for big sell or big buy yetcatching the knife never is a good idea
Will is the most powerful weapon in the world.
- #66,306
- Jul 23, 8:08am (1 hr 38 min ago) Jul 23, 8:08am (1 hr 38 min ago)
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 14,334 Posts | Online Now
it keeps fucking going
gold needs some meds quick
Insane in the Brain..
- #66,313
- Jul 23, 8:15am (1 hr 32 min ago) Jul 23, 8:15am (1 hr 32 min ago)
- Joined Mar 2025 | Status: Crack Dealer | 449 Posts
WHAT is happening + WHY is happening = Probability to Where we are Heading [3Ws that incorporate technical(what) with fundamental(why) to increase our edge(where)]
WHAT IS HAPPENING?
SCENARIO #1 (higher probability to WHERE based on WHAT + WHY)
GC monthly
GC WEEKLY
WEEKLY ZOOM IN
GC DAILY
GC H4
WHY IT IS HAPPENING?
Hawkish or DOvish FOMC?
Soft June CPI (Published in Jul) was mainly energy driven
SEE MoM for Jul
Live energy prices which eventually reflects into CPI
In JULY, 3 main energies prices are on the rise.
This means CPI in AUG will likely have a forecast of higher than 3.5%( actual from this month)
This explains the recent rise in 02 year nominal yield curve
Everything allign with the trade idea that hawkish FOMC.
Even 02 year real interest rate is rising sharply and showed no signs of stopping
This further supports the hawkish bets
Interest rate traders saw higher rate now than in the future.
SOFR spread between from far-month contract and near-month contract turns negative and falling more.
As i said before, no matter how TRUMP try to sell it, war is over, war is won, ships are safe, as long as number of ships transit in the strait remains low, even if oil prices falling and gold rising, the risk premium had never vanished. Ships continued to pay higher insurance premium.
When we looked at positioning since Friday, from CME to SHFE, traders are being forced to rollover from GCQ2026 to GCV2026 and from OGQ6 to OGV6.
The action of being forced means the float can no longer move freely, thus forced liquidation occurred.
The move from B-irregular 3930 to C 4275 will be DOVISH FOMC based on JUNE CPI and NFP figures released in JULY + as we are moving in AUG more and more sellers are rolling over their positions into Oct contract to avoid physical delivery + may be weak nfp?
Next Leg down will be starting in AUG to priced in higher inflation, or at the very least end of JUly start to price.
US30y yield priced in long term inflation risks.
WHAT IS HAPPENING?
SCENARIO #1 (higher probability to WHERE based on WHAT + WHY)
GC monthly
WEEKLY ZOOM IN
GC DAILY
GC H4
WHY IT IS HAPPENING?
Hawkish or DOvish FOMC?
Soft June CPI (Published in Jul) was mainly energy driven
SEE MoM for Jul
Live energy prices which eventually reflects into CPI
In JULY, 3 main energies prices are on the rise.
This means CPI in AUG will likely have a forecast of higher than 3.5%( actual from this month)
This explains the recent rise in 02 year nominal yield curve
Everything allign with the trade idea that hawkish FOMC.
Even 02 year real interest rate is rising sharply and showed no signs of stopping
This further supports the hawkish bets
Interest rate traders saw higher rate now than in the future.
SOFR spread between from far-month contract and near-month contract turns negative and falling more.
As i said before, no matter how TRUMP try to sell it, war is over, war is won, ships are safe, as long as number of ships transit in the strait remains low, even if oil prices falling and gold rising, the risk premium had never vanished. Ships continued to pay higher insurance premium.
When we looked at positioning since Friday, from CME to SHFE, traders are being forced to rollover from GCQ2026 to GCV2026 and from OGQ6 to OGV6.
The action of being forced means the float can no longer move freely, thus forced liquidation occurred.
The move from B-irregular 3930 to C 4275 will be DOVISH FOMC based on JUNE CPI and NFP figures released in JULY + as we are moving in AUG more and more sellers are rolling over their positions into Oct contract to avoid physical delivery + may be weak nfp?
Next Leg down will be starting in AUG to priced in higher inflation, or at the very least end of JUly start to price.
US30y yield priced in long term inflation risks.
Asymmetric home run trades only!
- #66,315
- Jul 23, 8:15am (1 hr 31 min ago) Jul 23, 8:15am (1 hr 31 min ago)
I believe that what moved the market today is the decision to fund the US Pentagon. This means that the war with Iran will continue and there is a possibility of a ground invasion. Also, there is an agreement to merge the US and Israeli armies.
The vampire ball is ending... Operation: Epic Escape (Paper Eagle)
XAUUSD, CRYPTO! Return Today:
32.9%
