Gold with No Drama

sent you zoom link

Excellent insight.

Gold going to open gap down side again

@T721 said he can’t do the zoom call for tmr
I recorded most of the zoom call for those who are intrested I don’t think I can send that much of a volume video on here
maybe send me an email @[email protected]
and we’ll figure out how I can send it to you guys

you're the GOAT

Thanks pal gotta get going. won't be back till Monday open.

Hope you learned a little bit. but remember what i said. "prove this old bugger wrong he's just a fuckingidiot"

can you post this in the Wolf trading strategy thread thanks

I’m looking for a book of price action by Jeorge soros I have one part of the book I need the full pdf
if you have it kindly share it with me
thank you

sorry i don't have time right now i'm about to leave for Glasgow. remind me Monday or Tuesday and i will see if i have it

A much more simplified one for the candles

Hi, thank you for taking the time to reply. I really appreciate it.
What you said about not trying to learn someone else's trading style makes a lot of sense. The more I study, the more I realize how easy it is to jump from one strategy to another without really understanding why it works. That's one of the reasons I made my post—I want to build something simple that I can understand, test, and repeat consistently.
I found your explanation of treating a setup as something that can provide multiple opportunities particularly interesting. If I understand correctly, you're identifying a higher-timeframe directional bias, then taking several smaller trades while that overall setup remains valid, rather than trying to hold one position all the way to the final target. Is that right?
I'd also be interested to know how you define when a setup begins and, more importantly, what tells you it's no longer valid. Is that based on a break in market structure, a higher-timeframe level, or something else?
Thanks again for sharing your approach, and I wish you the best with your testing.

That is a solid psychological breakdown, and it hits right at the core of what every trader fights daily.
The truth is, all these theories and narratives out there have their own merits. But at the end of the day, no matter how good the algorithm or the theory is, the ultimate battle is always within us—specifically, controlling our own itchy fingers when the market is moving.
I will be honest: I have that exact same itch. I get tempted to hit 'Close All' the moment I see blue on the screen. Because for me, trading is pure speculation, and exiting is by far the hardest part of the game.
To battle my own human nature, I chose a different path. Instead of fighting the itch in front of a live market, I built a hybrid EA to automate my exit options. And more importantly, I trained my itchy fingers inside the Strategy Tester.
Here is a quick clip of how I do it:

Inserted Video

By equipping my EA with interactive on-screen buttons, I turned the Strategy Tester into a flight simulator. I can manually practice my execution, trigger recovery logics, and test my exit plans against years of historical data in just a few minutes. It allows me to make mistakes, feel the urge to close, and discipline my hands mechanically before I ever touch a live account.
Control isn't about hoping your brain stops panicking; it’s about building a system that manages the panic for you

As I mentioned before, what I'm pursuing is consistency.

I only use a single indicator. The simpler and more practical it is, the better. Its only job is to tell my strategy whether it should be looking for buys or sells. Once a setup is active, I don't care about the higher-timeframe trend or whether price breaks an important level. Those things are no longer my focus.
What I care about is this:

1. My strategy has a maximum profit target of around 750 pips and a maximum risk of around 1,350 pips. On paper, that doesn't look very attractive, but each setup has a very high win rate.
2. Using the most recent example, once my setup was confirmed, it gave me a trading map between 3952 and 4056. Within that range, I was only allowed to look for buy entries. At that point, market structure, price action, and the analyses that people share here become valuable—not because they tell me what direction to trade, but because they help me find better entries within my predefined setup.

In reality, on that latest setup I ended up making around 1,300 pips, which is already far beyond the strategy's theoretical maximum profit for a single setup. So next week, if I don't see a really good entry, I'll simply stay out and wait for the setup to finish. I don't really care whether it eventually ends in TP or SL because I've already taken what the market was willing to give me.
I hope this gives you a slightly more positive perspective on trading.
Every opinion and every analysis shared here has value, but don't feel that you need to copy someone else's strategy or become overly attached to any particular method.
If I had to describe my own strategy, I'd probably say it's surprisingly simple—maybe even a little silly. But at the moment, it's working, and that's all that really matters to me.

1. Visual Elliott Wave Map (H1/H4 Projection)
Based on the yellow "3" markers in chart, we are currently in a Corrective ABC Cycle or a Leading Diagonal following a major bottom at 3939.02.

1. Wave (1) - Complete: The initial bounce from 3939 to ~4017 (Current price).
2. Wave (2) - Pullback: Likely to occur during the early Asian session (08:00–10:00 MYT).
3. Wave (3) - The "Power Move": Expected during London/NY overlap. Targeted to reach the 1.618 extension.
4. Wave (4) - The "Bad Pullback": A sharp, confusing dip designed to trap late buyers.
5. Wave (5) - The Exhaustion: A final push to the Golden Ratio (4086).

2. Fibonacci Retracement "Battleground" Chart
Drawing from the recent H4 Swing High (4189.45) to the Swing Low (3939.02):
Fib LevelPrice PointMarket Significance
0.0%3939.02Major Bottom / Demand Zone Floor
23.6%3998.11Immediate Support (Institutional "Buy" block)
38.2%4034.78The Pivot: First major hurdle for the bulls.
50.0%4064.23The "Fair Value" gap midline.
61.8%4093.68The Golden Pocket: Elliott Wave 4 target / Major Exit.
100.0%4189.45Structural Trend Change Level.

3. "Bad Pullback" Sniper Zone Analysis
A "Bad Pullback" is a rapid price drop that looks like a trend reversal but is actually a liquidity grab. On July 20, 2026, we anticipate two "Sniper Zones" based on Ichimoku and MAC Reversals.
Zone Alpha (The Asian Trap)

1. Price Area: 3998 – 4005
2. Timing: 10:00 – 12:00 MYT
3. Logic: Price will likely dip below the 23.6% Fib to re-test the Ichimoku Kijun-sen (Blue line).
4. Sniper Entry: Look for a "Long Wick" candle (Central Candlestick) touching 4002.
5. MAC Reversal: TDI Green line must "hook" upward while price is in this zone.

Zone Beta (The London Shakeout - "The Bad One")

1. Price Area: 4028 – 4035
2. Timing: 16:00 – 18:00 MYT
3. Logic: After a London breakout, price will often crash back to the Top of the Cloud (Kumo) to stop out break-even traders.
4. Sniper Entry: "Buy the Dip" at the 38.2% Fib level (4034).
5. Risk: If MACD Histogram shows a deep red valley here, wait for the second green bar before entering.

4. Backtester Trace & Forecast Logic (Hourly)
Time (MYT)Wave StageIndicator SyncStrategy
08:00Wave (2) StartTDI Weak LongWait: Avoid buying the early gap up.
10:00Sniper Zone AFib 23.6% + KijunEntry LONG: 4002. SL below 3995.
13:00Wave (3) LaunchTenkan-Sen Cross UpHold: Momentum building for London.
16:00Sniper Zone BCloud Re-testAdd Position: 4034. (The "Bad Pullback").
19:00Wave (3) PeakMACD Bullish DivergenceTarget 1: 4064 (50% Fib) - Secure 50% profit.
21:00Wave (5) ManiaNY Open VolatilityHold: Trend follows Central Indicator (EMA 50).
23:00Wave (5) EndGolden Pocket (61.8%)EXIT ALL: 4093. Major Elliott Wave Reversal expected.
01:00Corrective (a)TDI Bearish HookScalp SHORT: 4090 down to 4075.
Central Summary for July 20, 2026

1. Primary Goal: Ride the recovery from the 3939 floor to the 4093 ceiling.
2. The "Bad Pullback" Warning: Do not panic at 17:00 MYT. The chart indicates a sharp re-test of the 4034 level before the final 60-pip pump into the New York session.
3. Central Candlestick Pattern: Watch for an H1 Morning Star at the 10:00 AM sniper zone to confirm the day's bullish bias.

Technical Risk: If price closes an H4 candle below 3969 (Break Out line), the Elliott Wave count is invalidated and the market will enter a "Free Fall" stage. Always keep your Stop Loss active.

Sniper Zone Forecast & Trade Sizing Table (MYT Time)
Calculated for a standard $10,000 account with 1-2% risk per setup.

| Time (MYT) | Action | Sniper Zone / Level | Target (TP) | Stop Loss (SL) | Size (Lots) | Signal Logic |
| :--------- | :-------- | :------------------ | :---------- | :------------- | :---------- | :--------------------------------------------------------- |
| **08:00** | **Wait** | 4015 – 4020 | \-- | \-- | \-- | Asia Open: Price testing Wave 4 Fib 38.2%. |
| **09:00** | **Short** | **4022 (Zone A)** | 4010 | 4028 | 0.15 | **MAC Reversal:** TDI Green line "Hooking" at 50 level. |
| **10:00** | **Exit** | 4010 | \-- | \-- | \-- | Take profit at minor support (3999-4000 line). |
| **11:00** | **Long** | **4005 (Zone B)** | 4018 | 3995 | 0.10 | **Sniper Long:** False break of 4000; TDI Green/Red cross. |
| **12:00** | **Exit** | 4018 | \-- | \-- | \-- | Central Indicator: Price hits H1 Kijun-sen (Ichimoku). |
| **13:00** | **Short** | **4025 (Zone C)** | 4000 | 4035 | 0.20 | **Wave 4 Top:** Final rejection of Yellow Sniper Band. |
| **14:00** | **Exit** | 4000 | \-- | \-- | \-- | Exit before London volatility. |
| **15:00** | **Wait** | 4000 – 4010 | \-- | \-- | \-- | London Open: Looking for the "Bad Pullback" trap. |
| **16:00** | **Short** | **4015 (Sniper)** | 3985 | 4025 | 0.25 | **The Sell-Off:** Wave 5 begins. Kumo Breakout (Down). |
| **17:00** | **Hold** | Trailing SL | 3975 | \-- | \-- | Central Trend: Bearish Marubozu on H1. |
| **18:00** | **Exit** | 3980 | \-- | \-- | \-- | Profit taking at "Strong Support" (Blue Box). |
| **19:00** | **Long** | **3975 (Zone D)** | 3995 | 3968 | 0.10 | **Mean Reversion:** TDI oversold (Level 32). |
| **20:00** | **Exit** | 3995 | \-- | \-- | \-- | Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the London drop. |
| **21:00** | **Short** | **4000 (The Trap)** | 3950 | 4015 | 0.30 | **NY Open:** Liquidity grab at 4000 before Wave 5 flush. |
| **22:00** | **Hold** | Trailing SL | 3940 | \-- | \-- | Elliott Wave: Wave 5 extension toward 3930. |
| **23:00** | **Hold** | Trailing SL | 3932 | \-- | \-- | MACD Divergence absent (Trend is healthy). |
| **00:00** | **Exit** | **3930 (Target)** | \-- | \-- | \-- | **Primary Target Reached:** Elliott Wave 5 completion. |
| **01:00** | **Wait** | 3930 – 3945 | \-- | \-- | \-- | Consolidation. End of major daily moves. |
| **02:00** | **Close** | Market Price | \-- | \-- | \-- | **End of Session:** Square all remaining positions. |

Backtester Trace Analysis (July 20, 2026 Simulation)
1. Trend Alignment: The "Central Trend" remained bearish throughout the day as
indicated by the H4 lower high at 4050.
2. Wave 4 vs Wave 5 Transition: The 13:00 and 16:00 entries were
high-probability "Sniper" entries because they occurred at the intersection
of the Ichimoku Cloud resistance and the Fibonacci 61.8% correction level of
the previous minor drop.
3. Risk Management (Trade Sizing):
- Low Confidence (0.10 Lots): Used for "Counter-Trend" Longs (bounces off
support).
- High Confidence (0.25 - 0.30 Lots): Used for "Trend Following" Shorts,
specifically the NY Open flush which aligns with the primary Elliott
Wave 5 target.
Critical Technical Warnings for the Session:
- Strong Support (3990): As marked in your image, price may "stutter" here. If
the 21:00 NY Open fails to break 3990 with volume, Wave 5 may be truncated
(shorter than expected).
- TDI/MAC Sensitivity: If the TDI Green line crosses above the Yellow Market
Baseline during the 15:00 session, abort the Short 4015 entry; it indicates
Wave 4 is extending into a complex flat.
- Sniper Zone Entry: Only enter when a Central Candlestick (Pin Bar or
Engulfing) forms within the Yellow/Red bands on the M15 timeframe.
Next Step: Monitor the 3930 Wave 5 target. If hit, expect a massive daily
reversal (Wave A of a new cycle) on July 21, 2026.

all the best luck for tomorrow...

I personally have 3500 as possible bottom for Gold based on the Monthly chart and what my system tells me.

As the "red" weekly chart inside the kumo cloud......

I am backing Spain to winning the World cup final....

P.s: Detail Gold analyisis tomorrow ( after open)

i got a sell at 3995,any predictions for gapdown?

Definitely. Having a concrete strategy to control your behaviour is key.

And I wanted to add to all of this, both your and my comments.

What a person REALLY should be doing, instead of closing early, is HOLDING and ADDING.
** Applying MORE risk, not less, when the price is moving in your favour. **

97.5% of traders do NOT do this and DO NOT succeed as result, long term.
You will do better HOLDING and ADDING into strength than you ever will closing early.
For all of the times that strategy does not work, it will be more than made up for by the times it does.

That being said, I still have a hard time with that.
Especially in NY chop, but that's also where the huge moves are.
You have to be comfortable, being uncomfortable, which is easier said than done.

This week ahead - zero mistakes, zero closing early, zero fear, always open to the unlimited opportunities the market presents.
Accept the risk of the trade fully.

Looking forward to market open!
Wishing you all a fantastic week.