Commodities Trading Thread

Anyone trading commodities can share their trading ideas here.

Currently looking at coffee and looks like an established downtrend, hoping to sell any pull back

long wheat looking for 625.79

closed wheat for a small profit. Now short coffee. Will look to sell any pullbacks

Coffee could fall a bit more based on todays report

The International Coffee Organisation ICO have reported that the global coffee exports for the month of March were 8.10% higher than the same month in the previous year, at a total of 12.99 million bags. This they say, has contributed to the cumulative global coffee exports for the first six months of the current October 2023 to September 2024 coffee year to be 10.40% higher than the same period in the previous year, at a total of 69.16 million bags.

https://www.iandmsmith.com/news-head...et-report-1870

#coffee https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/2615.svg- End of month #Arabica and #Robusta coffee #stocks held by
@ICE_Markets

Missed Entry for the sell but I can console myself that I did not average down, looking for a sell while profitable on trade 1

Progress

The market is teasing me. a few minutes to watch news, another missed chance

apparently got out waay too early on wheat

It was a mixed but overall firmer day on the commodity markets yesterday, on the back of a weakening US Dollar, which is seen to be a bullish factor for commodities traded in other currencies. The Corn, Sugar, Soybean, Wheat, Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum markets ended the day on a positive note, while the Coffee and Cocoa markets ended the day on a softer note. The day starts with the U.S. Dollar trading at 1.255 Sterling, at 1.076 the Euro and with the US Dollar buying 5.076 Brazil Real.
The New York market trading solo for a shortened day yesterday started the day trading on a negative note, with the market quickly tracking softer under modest volumes of trade. The market continued to trend softer throughout the morning session into the early afternoon session. As the afternoon progressed the New York market would continue to be pressured by long liquidation to see the market hit a low for the day. The market rebounded off the lows of the day to recover slightly during the late afternoon session, this saw the New York market settle on a very soft note at the close.
The London market ended the day on Friday on a negative note with 95.21% of the earlier losses of the day intact, while the New York market ended the day yesterday on a likewise negative note, with 89.52% of the earlier losses of the day intact. This softer close for the New York market which was trading solo for the day does little to inspire any confidence and one might think that the markets are due for little better than a hesitant start to early trade today, against the prices set yesterday in New York and on Friday in London

from
https://www.iandmsmith.com/news-head...et-report-1871

There is an online debate and bet infact that we could see 150 in 10days.

Todays gap has been filled, lets see if we cant see 180

Why is platinum squeezing right now?

my view on that chart....there was a good buy earlier today, on an established medium term uptrend, id look to buy pullbacks

The coffee short was a loss. We are now in a good long trade

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Greetings to all those interested in commodities as well as FX/crypto/etc.

I'll start by sharing a chart from February 2015, from a Zero Hedge article called,
"How To Trade Oil For HFT Idiots 102."
I copied the text onto the chart:



This is something to keep in mind if a prolonged drop in oil prices continues.

Looking right now for a break as we can see a inverse head and shoulders. Seems a good long. Just expecting a little more accumulation and in some days probably a break thru that resistence point where the left shoulder and head was peaking.

1. Why coffee prices have been dropping in 2026

Even without live search results, we can rely on market structure + known fundamentals that drive both Arabica and Robusta. Coffee doesn’t move randomly — it moves on supply shocks, weather, currency, and inventory levels.

The big drivers of the 2026 decline:

1. Brazil + Vietnam bumper crops (oversupply)

1. Brazil = world’s largest Arabica producer
2. Vietnam = world’s largest Robusta producer

When both have strong harvests, global supply jumps, and prices fall.

2. Shipping/logistics normalised

2024–2025 had:

1. Red Sea disruptions
2. Container shortages
3. Higher freight costs

By 2026, logistics eased → lower costs → more supply hitting the market → lower prices.

3. USD strength

Coffee is priced in USD. A stronger USD → commodities fall because they become more expensive for non‑USD buyers.

4. Inventories rebuild

ICE certified stocks had been low for years. 2026 saw:

1. More certified bags
2. More deliverable supply
3. Less panic buying

More inventory = lower futures prices.

5. Speculators unwinding

Funds that were long coffee during the 2024–2025 rally have been:

1. taking profit
2. rotating into cocoa (which exploded)
3. reducing exposure to softs

Less speculative demand = downward pressure.

6. Why Robusta specifically has been falling harder

Robusta had a monster rally in 2024–2025 because:

1. Vietnam drought
2. Low inventories
3. High demand for instant coffee
4. Substitution from expensive Arabica

But in 2026:

1. Vietnam rainfall normalised
2. Yields recovered
3. Exports surged
4. Inventories rebuilt

So, Robusta corrected sharply — exactly what you’re seeing.



Happy Donut Day with a Coffee

spot on analysis tbh. nailing the fundamentals like inventory and usd strength is the only way. just see the bigger picture and let the market do its thing