I hope it goes down
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- #45,722
- Apr 15, 2026 3:02pm Apr 15, 2026 3:02pm
- Joined Nov 2024 | Status: Trader | 5,217 Posts
{quote} we have a H4 break at 4809.515. so there is a possibility of that tested and then down to the daily?
But this ny manipulation change many things in what i was reading higher tf and i am reading in sessions...
I said it friday that rarely ny manipulate twice and last time it did you all feel that gap down...
I come at the charts when i quote you, so i need to look for everything again.
But resuming by session we should go lower a bit more, by daily test and reject, this are the two most commom moves that happen.
And at 4782.135 you have Ny untested that i said yesterday that a break of that range in 15m should be tested... Maybe they still go there...
- #45,723
- Apr 15, 2026 3:04pm Apr 15, 2026 3:04pm
- Joined Jun 2025 | Status: One Line 4 Sessions | 1,100 Posts
Gap filled more probability than break weekly high.....imho
Flip again lol
Flip again lol
Stay Gold
- #45,724
- Apr 15, 2026 3:08pm Apr 15, 2026 3:08pm
- Joined Nov 2024 | Status: Trader | 5,217 Posts
Gap filled more probability than break weekly high.....imho Flip again lol
This day should had been bullish right?
Well... like at monday open gap going against everyone seems a good strategy...
- #45,725
- Apr 15, 2026 3:16pm Apr 15, 2026 3:16pm
- Joined Jun 2025 | Status: One Line 4 Sessions | 1,100 Posts
{quote} It can go deeper, but daily stil can close above 4778 or not? This day should had been bullish right? Well... like at monday open gap going against everyone seems a good strategy...
Probability matters
If close @ 4820 at least....wlll different story. Open just to add tge validation imho
Stay Gold
- #45,728
- Apr 15, 2026 3:41pm Apr 15, 2026 3:41pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 14,013 Posts
Insane in the Brain..
- #45,729
- Apr 15, 2026 3:41pm Apr 15, 2026 3:41pm
- Joined Jun 2025 | Status: One Line 4 Sessions | 1,100 Posts
{quote} You are looking much lower than that... Sorry but 4778 is a daily level broken yesterday. This is the level... The only thing before we tap 4888 that make me accept that break can fail is that daily never close fully this level, but as test only make not closing fully more probability to happen... EDIT: Adding that above we have monthly fractal close, is not an easy task also, second time we tap there as daily... 4833.890 Will weekly reject this again? Another question...
but should accept fractals move....for today....without 4830 i whould lowering bullish exposure....
For today...i will rely on your analysis ...ha ha
Stay Gold
- #45,731
- Apr 15, 2026 4:09pm Apr 15, 2026 4:09pm
- Joined Nov 2024 | Status: Trader | 5,217 Posts
{quote} My personal buy target @ 4900 ....boring to trade 4600_4800 for almost 3 weeks lol...
I don't look only to one tf, but my trades are short, be paid and move on.
When we see a fractal not beeing broken we already should start ask why?
We have that in weekly, then you have the breakout, for many two candle patterns are the starting of a trend, to me is exactly when the story are writen...
Will we confirm that momentum? Weekly fail last week... What they did and do 75% of the times and i said it here? Go bearish, but 25% they can just tap prior last 2 opens and end in a wick in the end breaking out in favor of previous weekly trend... This words are exactly what i said at monday gap down...
This week you have first down complete that pattern but not closing bearish at daily and you can had seen weekly wick forming and not a reversal is what i am seeing or at least having into account, daily at the moment after yesterday still validating that this time the lower probability of weekly is the real move.
See the images below... Will not go detail all the price movements of this pattern now, but is something like this that i am seeing...
- #45,734
- Apr 15, 2026 6:05pm Apr 15, 2026 6:05pm
- Joined Jun 2025 | Status: One Line 4 Sessions | 1,100 Posts
Stay Gold
- #45,737
- Apr 15, 2026 6:48pm Apr 15, 2026 6:48pm
- Joined Nov 2024 | Status: Trader | 5,217 Posts
50% yesterday fractal close is enough for me .
Safe trades.
New strategy, going against forex factory...
Safe trades.
New strategy, going against forex factory...
- #45,739
- Edited 7:28pm Apr 15, 2026 7:15pm | Edited 7:28pm
- Joined Nov 2024 | Status: Trader | 5,217 Posts
I got nice gains from 4800 to 4820s. And keeping smaller size longs by aiming yesterday high. Today looks bullish after frustrating yesterday performance of Gold.
4746 is 1st volatility top as wall (1h), and 4947 is 2 deviations of monday with the context of weekly potential had manipulated.... 4h we still not break tuesday close so nothing granted.
This is a big zone full of new and old gaps. 4h Volatility i forecast if we go there as 4956 i will not be greedy if that happen. More partials in the way at 4899 as 2 deviations of 1h volatility...
I have my targets to bearish too, this one just had a good confluence with Ny on the left that was respected after today were manipulated...
9am candle 1h is strong as 9am 4h candle, last one also never had a fully 4h candle close inside and now we are breaking it.
Still this 4h to close and next one so... Is just what i saw and can see playing...
EDIT: And don't want to see this 4h reject 4825.940 50% yesterday fractal close... If i loose a train that's ok, but will not let money on the table for them... Just wait for another confluence, no sure bias so, but obvious sligthly bullish for the reasons i explain today. Yesterday was a potential test, today is potential resume what i see can happen to upside.
And caution about no wick candles, is against buyers...
Only saw it now, not necessary they need but don't like it. I just woke up now to see how the trade went. Life of a trader...