BTC – Technical Notes

Bitcoin is trading within the $73,400–$76,000 range. Since the start of March, it has outperformed both US equities and gold, which fell from $5,400 to around $5,000 over the same period. This can be interpreted as a rotation of capital from overheated safe-haven assets into riskier assets.

The options market deserves special attention. Traders are closing out put options en masse at strike prices of $55,000–$60,000 — having realised their complete worthlessness as expiry approaches. This is forcing market makers to buy BTC for delta hedging. The market is closing out put options — meaning the bears have given up. Sometimes capitulation is the best bullish signal. Again, if you look at the technical analysis, they are selling off too early. You should sell on a break of $80,000.

Add to this the behaviour of institutional ETF holders: from January 2024 to 18 March 2026, net inflows totalled $56.72 billion. During a 50% correction, they sold less than $10 billion. Institutionals aren’t selling — which means they believe in BTC.

The regulatory saga also ended on a positive note: the SEC and CFTC jointly published the long-awaited guidance on the classification of crypto-assets, establishing a taxonomy for tokens. Most crypto-assets will not be classified as securities. The market has received what it has been waiting for for years — certainty.

Technically, there is nothing stopping buyers from testing the $77,500–$80,000 zone. The price pattern from the low of $65,630 is not ideal for a full-blown rally, but the trend is upwards. It all depends on what kind of wind Powell creates today — and where the dollar and the indices will head.

Wednesday turned out to be truly brutal.

Bitcoin's decline actually started before the Fed meeting — right after the release of producer inflation data.

The $73,600 level didn't hold. Its breach triggered a cascade of protective stops on long positions. According to CoinGlass, $456.4 million in positions were liquidated over 24 hours: $382.3 million longs vs $74.2 million shorts. For Bitcoin, longs accounted for $141.4 million; for Ethereum — $125.7 million. When stops cascade like that, price doesn't look for fair value — it hunts for the next order in the book. And it usually finds one much lower.

After the decision to leave rates unchanged, Powell spoke. The March press conference turned out to be one of the most candid in recent years — and at the same time one of the most concerning. The rate remained unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, and the dot plot still projected only one cut in 2026. But the devil is in the details: already 7 out of 19 FOMC members see no cuts at all, up from 6 in December. One vote flips the picture.

Powell essentially acknowledged a stagflationary scenario without actually saying the word. Inflation is high. Employment is weakening — February NFP came in at -92,000. At the same time, the Fed publicly abandoned its old habit of “looking through” energy inflation — previously treated as transitory. Not anymore. Two simultaneous sources of inflation, and neither can be ignored. Powell himself used the phrase “in theory” when referring to the one-time effect of tariffs — which signals that the models aren't working.

DXY sharply reversed upward and broke the psychological 100 level — one of the strongest single-day moves in recent weeks. CME FedWatch now prices the first cut no earlier than December 2026 or January 2027, with the probability of a pause in June above 75%. Before the Iran conflict began, the market was expecting three cuts in 2026. Everything has changed.

Powell is under DOJ investigation and has publicly refused to leave his post — something unprecedented in Fed history. Trump’s nominated successor Kevin Warsh is blocked in the Senate. The world's largest central bank is entering a period of management paralysis exactly when clear and rapid decisions are needed. This is probably the most underappreciated story of the entire Wednesday.

Geopolitics poured fuel on the fire. Iran launched a missile strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan — the world's largest LNG complex. Israel attacked Iran's South Pars gas field. Saudi Arabia intercepted ballistic missiles over Riyadh. The conflict has broken out of the bilateral framework. The Trump administration is discussing the deployment of thousands of troops to the Persian Gulf, including scenarios for controlling the Strait of Hormuz. So far it's rhetoric, but markets are listening.

Against this backdrop, gold fell 3.74% to $4,818 — and that's a good moment to talk about the nature of big moves. Gold is positioned as a hedge against inflation, geopolitics, a weak dollar, and systemic risk — four different narratives for one asset. When gold rises, people pick the narrative that fits. When it falls, a fifth one is found that “outweighed” the others. In reality, big moves are flows: a hedge fund sells gold to cover oil losses. We see the price, but we don't know who was selling and why. Everything else is post-factum reconstruction.

The key zone right now is $69,000–$70,000. If it fails to hold, the next target is the lower channel boundary around $66,000. For the uptrend to continue, it's better not to break below $69,000.

See you at $43k this year

That's right. I think the price could even drop to 30k given the current geopolitical situation.

Friday, March 20. Bitcoin is trading at $70,509. Over the last three days, the coin has lost 8%. While oil is on fire, gold is falling, and indices are breaking through support levels, Bitcoin stands amid all this chaos like a person in a burning shopping mall calmly reading a newspaper. Bloomberg couldn't hold back and called it an "oasis of calm" — and this is a rare case when financial journalists aren't exaggerating.

Technically, the picture looks like this: the downward wave from $76,000 to $68,793 has formed a completed structure on the 1H timeframe. This means the market has no technical obstacles to a correction up to $73,500. The key level to watch is $72,000. If the price reaches there and holds — it means buyers are still alive. If we don't break through $72,000 — nervousness will begin, because in a phase of acute market stress, Bitcoin historically behaves like a speculative and liquid asset — it's sold to cover holes in other positions. That's exactly what's happening with gold right now.

Gold has dropped to a nearly two-month low of $4,502, even though the entire geopolitical background is screaming that it should be rising. The paradox is only apparent. First, at the FOMC press conference after the meeting, Powell acknowledged that raising rates was discussed — this strengthens real yields and puts pressure on gold as a non-yielding asset.

Second, during massive volatility, fund managers sell the most liquid assets to cover margin calls on other markets. Gold is first in line. The recovery to $4,730 still looks technical. Further pressure on the metal creates potential tailwind for Bitcoin: according to CryptoQuant, the correlation between BTC and gold has fallen to -0.88 — the lowest since November 2022.

The Fed, as expected, left rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. The dot plot indicates only one possible cut during 2026, while 7 FOMC members don't expect any cuts at all. The baseline PCE forecast was raised from 2.5% to 2.7%. The probability of at least one cut by December has fallen below 60%. Don't expect loose monetary policy — the market understands this.

Geopolitics continues to pour fuel on the fire. Iran has struck six key oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The strike on the Yanbu port is particularly noteworthy — it wasn't a random target choice. Yanbu was the main alternative export route for Saudi oil bypassing the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Now there's neither Hormuz nor a backup path. Brent touched $119 during the session, WTI rose above $100. Trump has been appearing on camera with victorious statements for 20 days straight, but markets are already ignoring his rhetoric and looking at the numbers.

For Bitcoin in this setup, one variable is crucial — ETFs. So far, outflows are weak. That's good. But if outflows intensify, pressure on the spot market will increase along with it — selling ETF shares translates directly into selling Bitcoin on spot. The S&P 500 has broken through its 200-day moving average, which historically is a signal for institutions to switch from "buy the dip" mode to "reduce risk" mode. The question isn't whether Bitcoin will fall along with the market, but whether it will manage to attract flows of fleeing capital before panic engulfs everything indiscriminately.

Friday, March 20, turned out to be a nervous day. Stock indices fell, the dollar strengthened, and gold continued its prolonged plunge.

Now about gold — because the picture isn't complete without it. Over the last 15 trading days, the price has crashed 17%, down to $4,477, and about 20% from its all-time high of $5,602. Meanwhile, Bitcoin over the same period rose 7.5%, to $70,728. A paradox? Only at first glance.

Gold isn't falling because geopolitics has calmed down or the Strait of Hormuz has closed. The conflict is entering its third week. Oil is getting more expensive. Inflation is pressing. It would seem like perfect weather for a "safe haven." But the market doesn't live by the textbook — it lives by margin-call mechanics.

Here's what's really happening. Powell spent the whole week broadcasting inflationary rhetoric. Treasury yields went up. Real rates rose. And for gold, which pays no yield at all, rising real rates are like the appearance of a competitor that works for free and even brings coupons. Why hold the metal when a risk-free asset starts paying real money?

Large players with big leveraged positions in gold are getting margin calls. They start selling. Sales push the price down. The price falls — next wave of margin calls. A cascade. This isn't the first time: in 2020 and 2022, gold collapsed in exactly the same way during acute stress — not as a "safe haven," but as a victim of heavy leverage.

In the classic scenario, crypto assets in such conditions fly down faster than anything — leverage, volatility, retail panic. But Bitcoin is holding up. Why?
One working version is structural rotation. Part of the institutional money exiting gold due to margin calls is looking for an alternative instrument and choosing Bitcoin. Yes, the "digital gold" status is still controversial. BTC hasn't fully earned that label yet. But the market, it seems, is starting to try it on for size.

The U.S. stock market is suffering from two poisons at once. First — inflationary: expensive oil hits company costs and squeezes consumer demand, earnings forecasts are being revised downward. Second — rates: Powell made it crystal clear that easing isn't coming, meaning discounting of future cash flows remains harsh — and growth multiples are under pressure. A closed Hormuz isn't causing a flight to the dollar; it's creating a stagflation narrative: oil rises, the Fed is constrained, the economy can't accelerate.

A break below $68,800 technically opens the way to $66,550 — the lower channel boundary. That's the scenario for patient bears. But a return to $76,000 by April 1 would be a bullish signal and open the path first to $86,800, then to $90,500. It would be a miracle if buyers push through $72,000 on this current pullback today — the market loves to surprise.

I would be very surprised if BTC breaks out above $72000 in these market conditions. In my opinion, we should slip down to $55000 level first, it will be a good opportunity to build new heavy long-positions. Then we can enter the bullish cycle, new FED chairman, Clarity Act framework, and money printing because of geopolitical tensions and stagflation around the world. What do you think about it?

The corporate buying spree has effectively come to an end. 99% of all corporate BTC purchases over the past month have been made by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which bought over 45,000 coins. All other companies combined purchased around 1,000 BTC over 30 days, compared to 66,000 in August last year. Strategy controls 76% of all corporate reserves — 762,099 coins worth $57.686 billion at an average purchase price of $75,694. The company is holding its position, but at a loss.

David Saks’ departure from his role as ‘crypto czar’ under SGE status caused a stir — but to no avail. US legislation limits work in this capacity to 130 days a year, and the limit has been reached. Trump has appointed him co-chair of PCAST, which signifies not a weakening of his influence, but its expansion: from a narrow adviser on two topics, he is becoming the overseer of the entire White House technology agenda. His X account still bears the signature ‘White House A.I. & Crypto Czar’. The panic over this was premature.

In the coming days, the market will be driven by three factors: Trump’s 6 April deadline on Iran — the main unknown variable; the 3 April NFP data — a signal on the state of the labour market amid a supply shock; and any signs of diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. The latter is the only scenario capable of sending oil prices lower and restoring risk appetite. Until that happens, Bitcoin is trading near the lower boundary of its new channel, with a clear path to $60,000.

April 1: BTC/USDT is trading at $67,962.

The bounce from the $65,000 low is only about 5% — by Bitcoin standards, that's almost nothing.

The wave structure remains unstable and the price action looks crooked, largely because the information background is just as distorted. Trump manages to issue several comments in a single day, some of which directly contradict each other. The market is trading headlines, not actual data. This is a dangerous game.

The key level for confirming a successful bounce is a daily close around $69,550. If buyers manage to hold this level, we can talk about a completed correction and consider a move toward $72,000. However, the probability of a return below $65,000 is still estimated at over 70%.

Three factors will determine the outcome:
Real progress in negotiations with Iran and the status of the Strait of Hormuz,
U.S. labor market data — ADP today and NFP on Friday,
The Fed’s position.

Powell has already made it clear: there will be no rate cuts in 2026, and inflation hovering near 3% is not temporary. For crypto, this is a toxic backdrop — expensive money kills speculative appetite.

Separately, there are threats from the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) directed at major U.S. tech giants. Microsoft, Apple, Google, Intel, and Boeing were mentioned explicitly. If this risk materializes, it will hit the core of the Nasdaq, and Bitcoin is currently moving in sync with the technology sector.

The NFP on Friday is the main event of the week. Strong data will give the Fed a reason not to rush with easing. Weak data will add anxiety. In either case, Bitcoin will have to pick a side. For now, it’s simply waiting.

Now all attention is focused on the $65,000 level. This is not just a psychological number — it’s the boundary beyond which market makers are highly likely to pull their buy limit orders, and market orders will start cascading down the order book to the next liquidity pocket.

If $65,000 fails to hold, the market will enter a forced deleveraging mode, and the next significant support levels are in the $55,000–$56,000 zone. During liquidations, exchanges will record record-high fees, which is why the market could reach those levels faster than it seems.

Trump says one thing, the market believes another, and reality turns out to be a third. Biden, as a reminder, used to greet an invisible friend. Trump lives in his own reality, which the whole world watches and fails to understand. The only difference is that the exchange rate of this reality is directly transmitted into price quotes. Trust in presidential statements as a trading signal is rapidly depreciating — and this in itself is a source of volatility. For buyers to regain confidence, a rebound of at least $72,000 is needed.

On Friday, the US stock market will be closed due to Good Friday, but the NFP report will be released as scheduled.

The consensus is 60,000 new jobs, compared to the previous -92,000. A strong NFP combined with a high ISM price index creates the risk of a reassessment of the probability of a rate hike — this would be a blow to tech sector multiples and, accordingly, to Bitcoin.

A weak NFP opens up a stagflation narrative — rising inflation without employment growth — which is even worse for risk assets. Over the next 72 hours, it will be critically important to track the futures reaction to the NFP while the main markets are closed. And Trump loves to surprise everyone when the markets are closed.

The chart shows a descending structure after the all-time high of $126,199. Two strong drops of approximately 36% alternate with sideways consolidations lasting about 54 days each. This indicates distribution and a correction following the completion of the post-halving growth cycle.

If the market continues to follow this pattern, the next ~36% drop from the current level (~$66,464) would bring the price into the $46,000–$48,000 range. Moreover, if the geometric model of the descending channel holds (taking into account the previous waves), the target could even reach the $38,000 area — especially under increased bearish pressure. Of course, no one wants to see such prices, as crypto would plunge into darkness.

The key factor here is the behavior of large players and Strategy companies with their Bitcoin holdings. If their financial position deteriorates sharply (for example, due to rising interest rates, a drop in BTC price, or liquidity problems), they may be forced to sell Bitcoin to cover obligations — regardless of what they say publicly. This would create additional selling pressure on the market.

The ideal scenario for the bulls:
A retest of the $60,000 zone, where liquidity can be gathered below;
A sharp rebound above $66,000, forming a “double bottom” (or W-pattern);
Confirmation of a reversal through a breakout of the local downtrend.

However, it’s important to consider the macroeconomic risks:
Geopolitical tensions (particularly the situation around Iran);
Accelerating inflation in key economies;
Rising oil prices → increased global inflation → pressure on central banks → possible monetary policy tightening.

In such a scenario, even a technically perfect reversal may fail to materialize — the market will react to fundamental shocks rather than just chart patterns.
Let’s see what else Trump surprises us with before April 6.

opened a short position with a take-profit target of 60k

On April 6, 2026, Bitcoin closed down 0.26% at $68,853. A modest figure, but behind it lies a full day of geopolitical swings, corporate contradictions, and monetary noise that the market chose to ignore.

The day began with a rare luxury for these times — hope. Negotiation signals around the Iranian conflict, mediated by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey, briefly switched the market into risk-on mode. Bitcoin took advantage of the moment and climbed as high as $70,351. Investors breathed a sigh of relief for a few hours: it seemed that a 45-day ceasefire could give the markets a break from six weeks of geopolitical turmoil.

But instead of a ceasefire, the market received an ultimatum. Trump announced the largest bombings of Iran throughout the entire military campaign and set a tough condition: open the Strait of Hormuz by 8:00 PM Tuesday Eastern Time — or Iran would be “destroyed in one night.”

Tehran responded no less harshly: no temporary ceasefire, only a final peace, lifting of sanctions, reconstruction work, and guarantees of safe passage. The negotiation narrative evaporated as quickly as it had appeared. Bitcoin rolled back below $69,000.

While geopolitics was swinging sentiment, the corporate sector added another headline. Strategy bought another 4,781 BTC for $330 million at an average price of $67,718, increasing its total holdings to an impressive 766,970 coins. This despite the company sitting on an unrealized loss of $14.46 billion for the first quarter. The $44 billion ATM program continues.

However, Marathon Digital immediately demonstrated the opposite approach by selling 15,000 BTC. This took place between March 4 and 25; the company sold bitcoins worth approximately $1.1 billion. The proceeds were used to repurchase $1 billion in convertible bonds, reducing total debt by 30% — from $3.3 billion to $2.3 billion. This was a strategic move to strengthen the balance sheet and reduce share dilution. MARA shares rose after the announcement.

Two of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries — and diametrically opposed decisions at the exact same moment. Who is right, we’ll find out later.

The macroeconomic backdrop also added fuel to the fire. ISM Services showed a slowdown in activity at the same time — PMI fell to 54.0 from 56.1 — along with record price growth: the prices-paid index hit 70.7, the highest since October 2022. Stagflation in the data, war on the airwaves — a classic combination that should pressure risk assets through a reassessment of the discount rate. The market is deliberately looking the other way.

Goolsbee and Hammack confirmed a pause in monetary policy. CME FedWatch shows virtually zero probability of a rate cut by the end of the year. The dollar simply has nothing to grow on in terms of expectations — the entire tightening potential is already priced in. This means that any positive news on de-escalation of the conflict will be eagerly and quickly bought by Bitcoin.

And then — an almost unnoticed remark by advisor Hassett: “I expect that Warsh will begin cutting rates as soon as he becomes head of the Fed.” The market did not react — the phrase drowned in the geopolitical noise. But this was no slip of the tongue. It was public confirmation that the Trump administration is actively working on replacing Powell with Kevin Warsh — a known advocate of more flexible monetary policy. If this scenario materializes, markets will rewrite rate expectations very sharply.

On Tuesday, April 7, Bitcoin is trading around $68,750. Technically, the price is holding within the ascending channel from the February low of $60,000. The channel range is 18%, with the lower boundary at $65,850 and the upper at $77,760. The next 48 hours will be determined by Iran’s reaction to the deadline. A breakout above $72,000 will be a signal for the resumption of growth. A drop below $65,850 will mean growing fear and strengthening sellers targeting $65,000 and $60,000.

.....Nice tread...

Geopolitical backdrop remains the main driving force in this market.

The US-Iran ceasefire is formally holding, but the Strait of Hormuz is de facto closed. Iran controls transit, levies fees on tankers, and openly states that it is managing the strait “at a new level.” Trump is clearly unhappy about this — and the market can feel it.

This situation has created a rare phenomenon: after the ceasefire was announced, oil futures fell, while physical oil shot to the skies. Forties from the North Sea hit a new all-time high at $146.43. WTI Midland is trading at a $20.70 premium to Brent. This is no longer an oil market — it’s a price tag on scarcity.

On the Bitcoin side, there was also some small action on Thursday. The price climbed as high as $73,145, but the day once again closed below $72,000. Three touches of this level from below — and not a single convincing hold. By classic technical rules, after three tests, the level loses its status as significant resistance. Its boundaries have blurred, and the market is beginning to perceive the zone differently. That’s why the $72,800–73,000 zone is relevant today. But if it breaks higher, the next stop is already $75,000–77,000, with no intermediate pauses.

The hourly chart structure currently suggests the opposite. Three consecutive highs on the 1H timeframe — a classic signal of buyer exhaustion. The market wants to go higher, but it lacks fuel. And right now, that fuel is news. Without it, any negative development turns into position squaring. In that case, stops could easily drag the price back to $68,500 — quickly and elegantly, the way only crypto knows how.

There is also a positive long-term signal: Treasury Secretary Bessent has endorsed the CLARITY bill on crypto market regulation. Regulatory clarity has historically been one of the strongest triggers for institutional inflows. However, in the current environment of geopolitical uncertainty, this factor will work on a months-long horizon, not days.

The next 72 hours will determine the direction. On Friday, CPI data is released — a direct influence on risk appetite and flows into spot ETFs. On Saturday, US-Iran talks will take place in Islamabad. The American delegation will be led by Vice President Vance, with participation from Witkoff and Kushner. The Iranian side has not yet confirmed its delegation — and that in itself is a signal: when one side stays silent on the composition, the depth of any agreements is in question.

For an upward move, a combination of three factors is needed simultaneously: soft CPI, progress in Islamabad, and capital inflows into spot ETFs. Remove any one element — and the whole picture changes. The key level on the downside is $70,450. A break below it would no longer be a correction, but a shift in sentiment.

Vice President Vance announced: Iran has rejected the terms of the agreement, and the American delegation is returning home empty-handed. Bitcoin reacted with a 2.5% drop, falling to $71,310. The failure of the negotiations effectively closes the diplomatic window until April 22 — the date the ceasefire expires — and sharply increases the geopolitical risk premium.

The market will likely begin pricing in a scenario of renewed strikes, WTI oil rising above $100, and an inflationary shock that deprives the Fed of room for easing.

Key support lies at $69,000–$70,500. A break below this level would open the way to $66,400 and lower — precisely where the main stop-losses on leveraged long positions are concentrated. The reverse scenario: if the parties return to the negotiating table before April 22, the market could quickly recover to $77,000–$78,000.

Four peaks at the resistance level and the trend line drawn from the all-time high of $126,199, without a close above it — this is accumulated pressure that has now been released downward. A notable detail: the Fear & Greed Index has remained in the “extreme fear” zone throughout the entire week. The price was rising, yet sentiment stayed suppressed. This is a counter-cyclical signal — and it should not be ignored.

Next week, from April 13 to 19, the main intrigue remains the same: the war between the US/Israel and Iran. It will be interesting to see what Trump manages to say before the markets open. On Tuesday — PPI and ADP employment data: a forecast of 1.2% m/m growth in producer prices (versus 0.7% previously) could confirm persistent inflationary pressure and strengthen the dollar. On Wednesday — the Fed’s Beige Book and TIC capital flow data. On Thursday — Philadelphia and New York Fed business activity indices, industrial production, and weekly unemployment claims.

We are also watching the speeches of Williams, Waller, Daly, and Bowman. Any hint of a shift in the rate trajectory will trigger an impulsive move. However, the main market driver continues to be geopolitics. Without signs of de-escalation before April 22, all macro statistics will remain just background noise.

Technically, the picture is intriguing. On Saturday, 18 April, BTC/USDt is trading at $77,153. Buyers have reached the upper boundary of the ascending channel in which the pair has been trading for 71 days now — since the low of $60,000. Seventy-one days is not a channel; it is a waiting game.

The ideal scenario for the bulls: a break above $80,000 with consolidation above and an acceleration towards $90,754 without pause — a direct flight, non-stop. For the bears, it’s simpler and sadder for the longs: a bounce off the upper boundary will trigger a cascade of stop-losses on long positions — and down we go.

Sellers are technically in better shape right now: there is resistance, and the level is clear. But Trump knows how to surprise — this has long been a separate market factor. Indices are breaking records, corporate reports are coming in well, and crypto has room to run. One thing is missing — investor confidence that the rally is genuine, rather than a one-off spike.

For the next 48 hours, the main focus will be on news regarding the negotiations and the oil market’s reaction on 20 April. These factors will determine whether $80,000 is the next stop or a dead end.

Bitcoin ended the week up 6.67%, reaching $75,474 — a break above a key trend line has paved the way for the first psychological milestone of $80,000. However, the geopolitical pendulum has swung back: the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dampened buyer momentum. The coming week will determine whether $74,000 becomes the starting point for a new decline or whether the market gathers strength to storm $80,000 with a new target in the $95,000–96,000 range.

The main story of the day is the U.S.–Iran talks, which are unfolding like a bad detective plot: meetings collapse, the sides blame each other, and global markets watch the drama nervously. After Vice President Vance canceled his trip to Islamabad and the second round of negotiations failed to take place, Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire — but with one condition: Iran must present a “single unified proposal.” Markets took this as temporary relief and breathed out. Bitcoin responded with gains. The price rose from $74,821 to $77,540, including Wednesday’s trading during the Asian session.

But it is far too early to relax. Iran recognizes neither the ceasefire nor its extension. The Iranian armed forces have declared 100% combat readiness and said they are prepared to strike pre-designated targets. Tehran has set a hard condition: talks can begin only after the naval blockade is lifted. The blockade remains in place, and the oil supply deficit is building faster than the stock market can digest it. A classic situation: the market is trading hope, while reality is telling a slightly different story.

Why is Bitcoin reacting to the Iranian crisis at all? Investors are betting that Trump does not want escalation: he wants to come out looking like the winner in this story, but he does not need a full-scale war — it would hurt allies through high oil prices and the depletion of global reserves. That assumption is supporting risk assets, including crypto. But the structure of Bitcoin’s rise from $65,000 is complex and fragile. Yes, major players are holding the price up, but external shocks could quickly change the picture.

From a technical analysis perspective, the boundaries of the range have shifted to $67,200–$79,200. On the downside, support levels stand at $73,500 and $70,800. Buyers need to break through the $79,200–$80,000 zone to trigger stop orders and launch a more confident move upward. We should watch how price behaves on the next approach to this area — that is where Bitcoin’s near-term fate will likely be decided.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve remains in focus. Kevin Warsh, a candidate for the Fed chair position, said during hearings that he would be fully independent from the president, rejected the practice of giving markets “advance signals,” and called for reforming the inflation measurement system. That sounds serious. The current rate is 3.5–3.75%, the next meeting is scheduled for April 28–29, and no rate cut is expected. But the market still does not understand who will ultimately take over: a hawk or a dove. And uncertainty always brings extra nervousness for crypto.

Bottom line: Bitcoin remains stuck in a sideways range, geopolitics is setting the tone, and $79,200–$80,000 is the key zone. The U.S.–Iran talks and Fed signals are the two main triggers worth watching right now.

The chart clearly shows an ascending channel formed from the low of $60,000 in February 2026. The price reached the upper boundary of the channel—the $79,472 mark—and reversed lower. We are currently trading at $77,626.

The price growth pattern from $65,000 looks weak: the structure is uncertain, there is no momentum, and one cannot really call this a full-fledged trend. The market has crawled to the upper boundary rather than soared there.

The key support level is now $76,300. This is what will show whether buyers remain in the game. Holding above this level offers a chance for a retest of $79,000–80,000. A break below this level would see the next stop in the $73,500–73,790 range, where we can expect increased demand within a range-bound trading pattern.

As long as the price remains within the channel, the situation is neutral. But we can already feel the thin ice beneath our feet.