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Is this the bottom? The price structure appears to be forming a complete 5-wave move to the downside, with the target zone already reached. However, caution is still warranted at this stage, as confirmation of a reversal is not yet fully established.
From a channel analysis perspective, it clearly shows that this is the end of wave (c) at 65K. For this wave to qualify as a bearish impulse wave, bitcoin’s price momentum would need to break out of the channel boundaries. I am sticking with this count, and my bias is bullish.
“When bad news can’t push price lower, market is strong.”
It appears that recent threats from Donald Trump are no longer triggering the kind of selloffs we’ve seen in the past. Despite negative sentiment, price is holding steady and refusing to break lower, suggesting that selling pressure may already be absorbed.
This shift in behavior is a constructive sign for the market in the near term, indicating underlying strength and the possibility that buyers are gradually taking control.
It appears that recent threats from Donald Trump are no longer triggering the kind of selloffs we’ve seen in the past. Despite negative sentiment, price is holding steady and refusing to break lower, suggesting that selling pressure may already be absorbed.
This shift in behavior is a constructive sign for the market in the near term, indicating underlying strength and the possibility that buyers are gradually taking control.
Wave 2 has developed into an expanding flat formation, with a retracement extending to the 0.618 level, well within the typical range for a deep corrective Wave 2. Such price action reflects a market still lacking strong conviction, as participants remain hesitant to fully commit ahead of a potential impulsive advance.
Going forward, the key focus is whether this consolidation phase continues to evolve into a more complex corrective structure, or if a decisive catalyst emerges to trigger momentum and initiate Wave 3.
Going forward, the key focus is whether this consolidation phase continues to evolve into a more complex corrective structure, or if a decisive catalyst emerges to trigger momentum and initiate Wave 3.
Following Trump’s live remarks, price saw a sharp selloff, however the 0.618 level appears to be holding for now. The price structure is becoming clearer, resembling a leading diagonal triangle typically observed in wave 1 or wave A and often accompanied by deep retracements. The current correction remains capped around the 65K level, a break below this threshold would invalidate the current wave count.
On the daily chart, we observe the price action prior to the TL1 breakout, it clearly shows non-overlapping bars, indicative of an impulsive wave.
In contrast, the price movement leading up to the TL2 breakout appears corrective in nature. Corrective waves tend to align more closely with a normal distribution and exhibit mean reversion characteristics. We will have to see what unfolds next, whether Bitcoin regains strength or moves otherwise.
In contrast, the price movement leading up to the TL2 breakout appears corrective in nature. Corrective waves tend to align more closely with a normal distribution and exhibit mean reversion characteristics. We will have to see what unfolds next, whether Bitcoin regains strength or moves otherwise.
