White House officials cautiously hopeful latest talks with Iran are making progress, sources familiar with the talks - CBS reporter

Thanks for that kind introduction. I thought today I would give you my perspectives on the U.S. economy. These views are mine alone, and not those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System. A year ago today, I stood before a group like this one and described navigating last year’s economy as trying to drive through fog. Major government policy changes — trade, immigration, regulation, and fiscal — were all happening at once. It was hard to see the path ahead. Businesses reacted as you would think. When you drive through fog, you don’t want to put your foot on the gas; you don’t know what lies around the next turn. You also don’t want to slam on the brakes; someone could hit you from behind. So, you pull over, and put on your hazards. That’s what businesses did. They didn’t cut back, but they didn’t lean into new investments either. They didn’t fire, but they didn’t hire. They sat on the side of the road, waiting for the fog to lift. The Fog Lingers Now, most of last year’s policy questions seem much clearer. The tax bill has passed. Deregulatory efforts are underway. Net migration has plummeted. Federal government spending and workforce cuts are largely understood. Even though the recent Supreme Court tariff ruling has reintroduced some uncertainty, most businesses expect tariffs to be reinstated in a range they can roughly predict. But I can’t stand here a year later and tell you the fog has lifted. If anything, it’s deepened and spread. It’s as if we’ve all moved to San Francisco. Speaking of the Bay Area, BARKIN: PRUDENT TO HOLD INTEREST RATES STEADY AND AWAIT MORE CLARITY ON WHAT THE FED SHOULD DO NEXT FED'S BARKIN: EVEN BEFORE OIL SHOCK, PROGRESS ON INFLATION WAS AT RISK OF STALLING #OOTT Fed's Barkin: I will be watching inflation and expectations data carefully. FED'S BARKIN STATED UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW, BUT THE LABOR MARKET SEEMS 'FRAGILE'; COMPANIES REPORT MINIMAL WAGE PRESSURE WITH SEVERAL APPLICANTS FOR EVERY POSITION.

Thank you for the invitation to join you today. It's great to be at the San Francisco Fed and to be part of this conversation. I’m going to focus today on a question that is on my mind as a policymaker and that elicits strong and wide-ranging views. What might the rapid advance of artificial intelligence (AI) mean for the U.S. economy, and what does it mean for monetary policy? Is AI more than hype? At the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, AI systems are transforming pediatric care. AI tools help diagnose rare diseases and can predict patient decline hours before more traditional methods. They also allow for treatment protocols that are personalized in ways that would have been impossible just a few years ago. But our relationship with technology is complicated. Some people embrace it, and others not so much. The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia is just a few miles away from the place where “hitchBOT” met an untimely end back in 2015. HitchBOT was a cute, hitchhiking robot designed to explore how people relate to technology. He had successfully hitchhiked across Canada and parts of Europe before being decapitated in downtown Philadelphia. You don't have to look far to find passionate views on AI and the future of the economy. Some of my business contacts tell me AI will fundamentally transform their operations — changing not just how they produce, but what it is possible to produce. Others are more skeptical. They expect AI tools to produce incremental improvements rather than revolutionary changes. These perspectives matter far beyon Fed's Paulson: The Fed has made notable progress in bringing inflation down. *PAULSON: NO SIGN LABOR MARKET CONTRIBUTING TO INFLATION *PAULSON: LONG-TERM INFLATION EXPECTATIONS MAY BE MORE FRAGILE Just in | Fed's Paulson Warns Iran Conflict Poses Risks to Economic Growth and Inflation.

US SECRETARY OF STATE RUBIO TOLD G7 COUNTERPARTS IRAN WAR SHOULD END IN MATTER OF WEEKS, THREE PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH THE TALKS SAY RUBIO: WE EXPECT THE IRAN OPERATION TO CONCLUDE AT THE APPROPRIATE TIME, WE ARE TALKING WEEKS, NOT MONTHS RUBIO: IRAN MAY DECIDE TO SET UP A TOLLING SYSTEM ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ RUBIO: WE CAN ACHIEVE OUR GOALS IN IRAN WITHOUT ANY GROUND TROOPS