Gold with No Drama

Gold spot H12 (Half Day)
Some likely retracement

Monthly can be aiming 4464.650 why do you keep insisting on buys?
Long term monthly can go to extreme after broke 0.25 deviation and that my friend is at 3862 wich i don't think they have time to that, but just think that 4464 with this volatility is possible.
We never cross weekly median low since begining of the year, for this week like i said yesterday i believe this zone can stop price on weekly, but who insist against such volatility?
At least use proper risk management.

SAUDI PORT OF YANBU STOPS OIL LOADINGS - TWO SOURCES

if thats true gold gona fall somemore later on


dont get caught with your pants down gentlemen

still bearish, keep selling guys

I swear... it wasn't me.

temporary relief is needed - either range or small bounce until NY
Maybe 2-3 green hourly candles...

Hi Raventine,
May I know how did you get 870 level for Q1 close?

Thanks.

Yes, it's all bears but more than one hour now, 4700 has refused to yield

If we go average price with proper risk management obvious is tp 4774, more than this is have faith.
See you guys at the end of the day...
Don't get me wrong i am doing it with proper risk management, wich means very lower than usual...

It can go 800, i just am not greedy if they average.

I am selling the pivot 4718 at the moment as I dun see a close above it.. and its very bearish

my 4770 target is also toast and looks like we will head to 4649 and then 4337

Scalp buy risky biz choom

wow this last fall was brutal. surely we will go up now.. there is lot of capitualation left in gold though but it is still a hedge but not as before. it will also succumb to downside

4800 looks difficult after the quick fall we have had

4550 we go

4700 falls after 2 hours of give and take

gold is the only space probably where people are sitting on lots of profits. so maximum capitulation can happen there

There will be a strong support at 4616 Bands SMA

There all waiting at the bottom 4400ish

Hello everyone. XAU/USD has currently pulled back to the 4680 levels, and I can see the justified anxiety in the forum . Last night, the Fed keeping interest rates steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range and Powell drawing attention to the inflationary risks caused by rising oil prices (WTI over $95.50) accelerated this sell-off . Yesterday's 3.14% drop was the sharpest market movement we've seen in recent weeks . However, we shouldn't read this situation shallowly as "rates will stay high, gold is crashing." We need to look closely at the divergence between "paper gold" (futures) and "physical gold," as well as institutional order flows .
Here is a deeper analysis of the current situation with data:
1. Futures (COT Data) and "Paper Gold" Cleansing The main catalyst for the drop we are seeing on the screen is not gold losing its intrinsic value, but rather the liquidation of over-leveraged positions in the futures market ``. According to the latest CFTC data, the net long positions of managed money had reached a five-week high of 98,000 contracts . However, detailed analysis showed that this increase was primarily driven by short covering rather than fresh long buying.
When the price lost its momentum and dropped below its 50-day moving average, these crowded long positions entered an algorithmic selling spiral due to margin calls and the need for liquidity. In short, what we are witnessing right now is profit-taking and a shakeout resulting from futures traders' forced search for liquidity ``.
2. Physical Demand and Central Banks' Buying Frenzy Despite this bloodbath in the futures market, institutional accumulation on the physical side continues at full speed. In February alone, global physically backed gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.3 billion (with North America alone adding $4.7 billion), and total ETF assets reached a record level of $701 billion.
It doesn't stop there; the scale of Central Banks globally reducing their dollar reserves and transitioning to physical gold is massive . Based on the latest data, significant physical gold purchases were made by Kazakhstan (57 tonnes), Brazil (43 tonnes), Azerbaijan (38 tonnes), Turkey (27 tonnes), and China (27 tonnes). According to J.P. Morgan data, this structural and institutional physical demand is expected to remain robust at an average of 585 tonnes per quarter. With such a massive group of "conviction buyers" in the market, a sustained macro bear market is mathematically very difficult .
3. SMC (Smart Money Concepts) and Order Blocks When we analyze the price action according to the Smart Money Concept, we see that everything is proceeding according to a script. Forcing the price below the $4,800 psychological barrier was a classic liquidity sweep . Retail investor stops clustered in that area were triggered, and billions of dollars in sales were met with institutional buy orders without causing the price to bounce immediately ``.
The 4680 level we are currently at, and the 4640-4650 band just below it, are not ordinary supports in technical analysis; this is the structural floor where the long-term moving average passes, acting as the backbone of the macro bull trend . Institutional players and large funds are using the order blocks in these deep discount zones to fill their portfolios before the massive upward wave expected later in the year (with Goldman Sachs' $5,400 and J.P. Morgan's $6,300 targets for 2026 still on the table).
Conclusion: In summary, friends, what we are watching right now is not a crash scenario where the trend ends. It is a phase where inflation fears are used as an excuse to ruthlessly wipe out over-leveraged retail long positions from the market, allowing institutions to quietly accumulate from the 4640-4680 discounted buy zone ``. During such deep shakeouts, instead of panicking and selling by looking at the red candles on the 15-minute charts, following physical ETF flows and the footprints of central banks is always the safest harbor.

Watch your leverage, and I wish everyone patience and profitable trading.