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  • #1,961
  • Mar 13, 2026 7:32am Mar 13, 2026 7:32am
Last nights move was final confirmation for me that we have very likely bottomed out long term. Heading to new all time highs from here i believe and probably much higher than that. AT MINIMUM the red trendline above will be tested. Might be a strong rejection at first touch, might not.

If this is indeed a long term bottom, then this wasnt really a bear market, just a correction. This next wave could be MASSIVE.

Will be easier...never easy...but easier...to look for near term profit targets as the move progresses, but surprises will be to the upside. The risk is taking profits too early and missing the bigger move.

Should not revisit 70k if im right about this.

The best strategy is probably to hold now and look to add size on any pullbacks.
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  • #1,962
  • Mar 13, 2026 7:59am Mar 13, 2026 7:59am
There is a somewhat strong resistance around the 73053 mark on the D1 timeframe. If it breaks this resistance, I believe we will see a strong bullish market. But I'm not sure if it will be broken right now.

I would also be watching the news. The US-Iran conflict is important here. If the conflict continues with violent battles or major global economic impacts (the Strait of Hormuz, for example) or even if there are signs it won't calm down soon, then I believe big players will keep their money in the dollar, or at least away from Bitcoin. But if there are signs the conflict is calming down soon, then I believe BTC/USD will see strong gains and a very strong bullish trend.
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  • #1,963
  • Mar 13, 2026 10:27am Mar 13, 2026 10:27am
Moment of truth here.
Looks like a test of break at 72200 from Feb 8th high.

A break at 74k will probably have the bears running for the hills.

Important spot here I think
  • #1,964
  • Mar 13, 2026 11:47am Mar 13, 2026 11:47am
Wasn't a test, just a last second run for stops that got in easy last night it seems.

Thought about moving stop to 71k before this move, but knew it was possible. Didn't think it would happen, but knew it could.

Now its either going to head back to 74k from here and take off or maybe I'm wrong about the whole thing. Still confident in bulls though.

Stop still at 70400, will move to 71k if/when 74k breaks.
  • #1,965
  • Mar 13, 2026 1:07pm Mar 13, 2026 1:07pm
Quoting BlueKnight
Selling. Not buying this fakeout. Go fool another. {image}Always trade at your own risk.
Take profit hit. Done for today.
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  • #1,966
  • Mar 13, 2026 4:09pm Mar 13, 2026 4:09pm
Moving stop to 69k (risking more but it aint crazy)
Target is 78k
Its a 1:3 r/r
Thats good enough.
Going to take the profit on that trade and buy my wife a new car (she could use one anyway) to remind myself what these numbers I keep seeing disappear actually mean outside of a screen!
  • #1,967
  • Mar 13, 2026 6:36pm Mar 13, 2026 6:36pm
I believe the current price movement is a reflection of the price movement that occurred in early March, when BTC surged in an ABC pattern by about 17%. It also follows the price pattern that began on February 26, but on a smaller scale. If my analysis is correct, the next target would be around 79K.
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  • #1,968
  • Mar 13, 2026 6:49pm Mar 13, 2026 6:49pm
Got a different set of eyes on it tonight.
What would cause most amount of damage from here?

I think they'll run it up to 77k/78k over the weekend, then run it back to take out 69k next week.

Moved target to 77k.
Will short around 78k with a stop at 87k and target of 69k

Its a lot to ask of a weekend. Some weekends are wild, most are uneventful, but we're not living in uneventful times right now.

Will probably look foolish for even thinking this could happen by Sunday night, but thats what im preparing for just in case
  • #1,969
  • Mar 13, 2026 8:43pm Mar 13, 2026 8:43pm
Quoting Zappa
Got a different set of eyes on it tonight. What would cause most amount of damage from here? I think they'll run it up to 77k/78k over the weekend, then run it back to take out 69k next week. Moved target to 77k. Will short around 78k with a stop at 87k and target of 69k Its a lot to ask of a weekend. Some weekends are wild, most are uneventful, but we're not living in uneventful times right now. Will probably look foolish for even thinking this could happen by Sunday night, but thats what im preparing for just in case
what is probability of getting btc up ? maybe it will go down
  • #1,970
  • Mar 14, 2026 12:35am Mar 14, 2026 12:35am
"ETHUSD made a sharp spike to $2,210 but got heavily rejected and dropped back to $2,080. Classic bull trap at resistance! Price is now consolidating around $2,094. Key levels to watch: Support at $2,080 and $2,000. Resistance at $2,150 and $2,200. If $2,080 holds, possible bounce. If it breaks, next target $2,000. What's your view on ETH? Drop your analysis below!"
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  • #1,971
  • Mar 14, 2026 10:42am Mar 14, 2026 10:42am
Quoting ramshajaved3
{quote} what is probability of getting btc up ? maybe it will go down
Probability is 100%.

Haha, no just kidding. I can't tell you a probability, because I'm not sure how to even calculate that.

It might continue down, hell I didn't think it would reject the high at 74k like it did yesterday, so what do I know. Just don't think it'll let bears off that easy right now, but also think there might be unfinished business around 67k after they flush out some stops above.

Stop at 69k is what I'm comfortable with right now for my long. It takes me out well that sucks, but you win some and you lose some, that's how it goes.

The selling we're seeing immediately after CME closed yesterday reminds me of when it gapped way lower on February 1st, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who remembers that, but it might just be a scare tactic. The difference between this weekend and that one is it finished the day on Jan 30th UP, then started immediately dropping at CME close. This time it closed after a sell-off to finish up the day.

Its a tough call to be honest. Still kicking myself for not taking profits when it was rejected near 74k. FOMO can be a real bitch!

So just letting it ride at this point and hoping for the best. Did adjust target slightly again to 76k. That should be filled if I'm right about this and I need a good trade to hit target this month...at least 1...to be firmly in the black.
  • #1,972
  • Mar 14, 2026 10:42am Mar 14, 2026 10:42am
Quoting phelven
There is a somewhat strong resistance around the 73053 mark on the D1 timeframe. If it breaks this resistance, I believe we will see a strong bullish market. But I'm not sure if it will be broken right now. I would also be watching the news. The US-Iran conflict is important here. If the conflict continues with violent battles or major global economic impacts (the Strait of Hormuz, for example) or even if there are signs it won't calm down soon, then I believe big players will keep their money in the dollar, or at least away from Bitcoin. But if...

Nice call phelvyn!
  • #1,973
  • Mar 14, 2026 1:12pm Mar 14, 2026 1:12pm
Quoting Zappa
Still kicking myself for not taking profits when it was rejected near 74k. FOMO can be a real bitch!
We are in a hole. Getting out of it is not going to be easy, there are tons of sell orders waiting on the top. And buyers must be strong enough to absorb this or the price might crash hard.
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70,500.00 seems to be a good price to START buying. But I would wait for a drop to the 69,000.00 range.

I do not know how the (traditional) market will open on Sunday, it can pump or dump; or dump first, then pump later. But if buyers are not strong enough to go through the roof we may fall below 60,000.00 before rising to 80,000.00+.

Not financial advice. Always trade at your own risk.
  • #1,974
  • Mar 14, 2026 3:15pm Mar 14, 2026 3:15pm
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} We are in a hole. Getting out of it is not going to be easy, there are tons of sell orders waiting on the top. And buyers must be strong enough to absorb this or the price might crash hard. {image}70,500.00 seems to be a good price to START buying. But I would wait for a drop to the 69,000.00 range. I do not know how the (traditional) market will open on Sunday, it can pump or dump; or dump first, then pump later. But if buyers are not strong enough to go through the roof we may fall below 60,000.00 before rising to 80,000.00+. Not financial...
Tend to agree with the sell orders above at this point. Might be a bumpy road for a while even if we have long term bottom in. Any ideas that it would be a strong move up without too many hiccups is probably fantasy, at least for now. Yesterday proved to me that bears still have plenty of firepower left.

Thats why ive adjusted my plan. It'll be better to grab profits while theyre on the table than expect giant moves. Safer too. Even if bitcoin does turn into a one way freight train at some point, its not like there aren't opportunities every day. Like that selloff in Jan-Feb, there were plenty of opportunities to make some good trades even if you missed the beginning and even middle of the move.

I have to remind myself that sometimes, though clearly I need reminders more often!

Nice job on hitting your target, btw. I thought you were in trouble when it approached 74k, but it turned hard and came back. Seemed risky as hell when you sold that initial blast, but turned out well for you so congrats!
  • #1,975
  • Mar 14, 2026 3:28pm Mar 14, 2026 3:28pm
Well now its Saturday afternoon, and bears have been trying to push this lower since CME close without much success. Could it be the bulls turn soon, or will we just watch paint dry until tomorrow afternoon? Paint drying is usually the higher probability, but crazy things can happen on weekends sometimes.

Speaking of which, isnt it great to NOT BE LOCKED out of the market over the weekend like you are in pretty much every other market out there!?!? We dont have to sit around all weekend and hope that the market doesn't gap open against us! Qe can be part of the gap!

If we do get a big gap up, will be kind of funny because we'll be in the middle of 2 big gaps. We going to close that one below or above?

If that happens (again, probably not even likely, but still possible) I think the latest gap will get closed first.
  • #1,976
  • Mar 14, 2026 3:43pm Mar 14, 2026 3:43pm
Quoting Zappa
I thought you were in trouble when it approached 74k, but it turned hard and came back. Seemed risky as hell when you sold that initial blast...
My last sell was near 74,000.00, where my leverage became 1:1. If it had broken that level I would have to leverage and that is when things become dangerous (especially with Bitcoin) and my plan would be to exit and not to profit from it.
  • #1,977
  • Mar 14, 2026 4:25pm Mar 14, 2026 4:25pm
Quoting BlueKnight
{quote} My last sell was near 74,000.00, where my leverage became 1:1. If it had broken that level I would have to leverage and that is when things become dangerous (especially with Bitcoin) and my plan would be to exit and not to profit from it.
So you are scaling in as it goes against you without using leverage and its been working for you. I used to know a trader that did that and he seemed to do pretty well with it to. I never preferred that approach, but if its working for you then keep it going!

I use leverage, but not always, and if I do I use very tight stops. Never more than 3x leverage. Drawdowns can be catastrophic. Must be VERY careful.

In my younger days I blew up many....MANY...accounts using too much leverage (and really not that good a trader either). Id occasionally have a good run (even had a trade explorer on here years ago with real money). I started with 1k in it and got it to around 70k if I remember correctly....but then blew it up to from there. You can see comments on my profile from other traders who were watching.

Its tough for a lot of us in the beginning. We blow up an account because we're new to it and we just suck at trading. Fund a few more and blow them up too. Eventually a trader will either quit or learn to stop being so crazy, but by then they are trading with peanuts. Hard to really make much with peanuts without using leverage. Took me longer than most to respect leverage (and stop being so over-confident, hence the comment i made last week about "no matter how confident you are a trade will go your way, you could still be wrong)). But the way I built up a decent sized account was starting very small, using crazy leverage on one big trade that worked out (added size along the way) and turned a small account into a let's call it respectable sized account.

I knew by then (having blown up many accounts before that) that my luck would eventually run out and I'd blow it up again if I continued, so after that trade I limited leverage to 3x. I had reached a goal, and knew if I just traded like a sane person I can make decent money (maybe not rich right away) but eventually.

Ive seen what one great trade can do, and that actually hinders my performance to this day, as seen in several trades lately. Im way more accurate than ive ever been, and still evolving and growing as a trader (and human being), but the urge to go for the grand slam (albeit with much lower leverage) is still in me. Im hard headed, but as I continue with this i realize more and more ill do way better only going for smaller trades with more realistic risk/rewards setup.

Trading is not really a profession, its more like a practice---like lawyers say they are practicing law-- because there is always room to grow and evolve and get better results.

Anyways, sorry for the rant. Just thought id share that with yall
  • #1,978
  • Mar 14, 2026 6:53pm Mar 14, 2026 6:53pm
All the sudden not looking so bearish anymore!
Well it IS Saturday and this will probably be faded, but just thought it was funny.

Just wanted to add, I dont have any order to go short yet. I dont generally like to put limit orders in. And catching a falling/vertical knife has never worked well for me, but somewhere around 76k-80k MIGHT be where it turns if it is indeed on the way there. Target at 76k still.

Going to just see how it goes while watching a movie with my lady and dog by my side. Best thing in life and you dont even need to be a millionaire to have it (though women can be expensive if you let them be! And dog food aint cheap....ahh well you know what I mean)
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  • #1,979
  • Mar 14, 2026 6:56pm Mar 14, 2026 6:56pm
Quoting Zappa
All the sudden not looking so bearish anymore! Well it IS Saturday and this will probably be faded, but just thought it was funny. Just wanted to add, I dont have any order to go short yet. I dont generally like to put limit orders in. And catching a falling/vertical knife has never worked well for me, but somewhere around 76k-80k MIGHT be where it turns if it is indeed on the way there. Target at 76k still. Going to just see how it goes while watching a movie with my lady and dog by my side. Best thing in life and you dont even need to be a millionaire...
Wait its still look bearish to me . this is only retracment i guess . wait for confarmation . my bais will long if price go to 73000 again then i consider a long
  • #1,980
  • Mar 14, 2026 7:00pm Mar 14, 2026 7:00pm
Significant increases in Bitcoin are expected in the coming period due to global conflicts, but for how many months?
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