ISM report signals manufacturing remains in expansion but with cooling growth and still-soft employment, which on its own does not pressure the Fed to tighten. However, the sharp jump in the Prices Index to 70.5 reinforces lingering pipeline inflation risks, supporting the Fed’s likely preference to remain cautious and data-dependent rather than pivot dovish in the near term.

Notables:

Prices Index: +11.5 pts to 70.5: Massive surge to highest since June 2022 signals renewed pipeline inflation pressure.

Backlog of Orders: +5.0 pts to 56.6: Strong rebound suggests demand is firming and capacity is tightening.

Imports: +4.9 pts to 54.9: Sharp rise indicates strengthening input demand and supply chain activity.

Inventories: +1.2 pts to 48.8: Suggests firms are cautiously restocking.


Production: -2.4 pts to 53.5: Output growth slowed notably despite remaining in expansion.

New Orders: -1.3 pts to 55.8: Demand growth cooled modestly after January’s stronger pace.

Manufacturing PMI: -0.2 pts to 52.4: Headline expansion continued but momentum softened slightly.

Supplier Deliveries slowed further, indicating ongoing supply frictions even as the pace moderated.

Holy prices increase....I guess there's a thing or two going on globally to distract.

/RTY is, surprisingly, liking the number. /nq, not as much.

Well, last months PMI was higher (technically), BUT the big deal are the prices. Those estimates were WAYYYY too low. Higher prices should translate to higher inflation....which should mean fewer rate cuts and, therefore, a drop in equity prices. Oh how the markets like to confound.

I still say this is being put on the back burner until the Iran situation is figured out, but I'll take any pop (even if underserved) in markets to help buffer any forthcoming downside.

Who knows. Maybe the current war/inflationary impacts were already priced in? So long as things don't spiral past point /expectation 'abc' then equities are comfortable?

I still think there is going to be significant 2-sided action until that VIX gets back into the 16s though, so scalpers and swing traders: enjoy it while you can.

Not sure THAT is in the cards today......BUT......I doubt many had a green /RTY and the /ES gaining 100+ pts off the overnight lows on their bingo cards either. Of course, the day is FAR from over and the VIX remains above 21.

terrible data

The inflation tax goes straight to shareholders as profit so stocks will go up with inflation. Also if the fed doesn't hike to defend the USD (raise the real rate) then it will go down as well, further pushing up stocks.

Kevin Warsh will inherit a complete disaster. The economy on the verge of collapse under high inflation. Since US is in the war right now that is not going to end any tme soon, the Fed will continue to inflate. They will sacrifice the USD completely which will catch up with the economy.

These are the highest numbers we've seen since 2022.

Dow jones near 50000

No Comment! LOL

Did you mean Euro? Or USO?

*update: /es and /nq just closed the weekend gap down, so now it's an open question mark as to which direction is coming next.

The month of February was not that favourable for the EUR/USD.it was somehow too late for me to realise that price was in a tight range, I only realised that after giving almost 2%of all the profit I made from the previous month.
March has come with new beginnings price has breaked the range support, heading to breks my bearish trendline on the HTF. so let's see where price is taking us to

get those uro shorts ready