Gold Trading Strategy – New York Open Range Breakout Scalping

Update: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...calping-system
After 15 years of trading experience, trying indicators, EAs, price action systems, and almost every “holy grail” method available… I consistently lost money. Not because the market was impossible.
But because I was not systematic.

Everything changed when I studied trading psychology from renowned trading psychologists like Mark Douglas, author of Trading in the Zone.
That’s when I realized:

1. I cannot trade all day and expect to win.
2. I must accept uncertainty.
3. I need a strict capital management system.
4. I need ONE repeatable edge.

So I chose my poison.
And that poison became my Gold Trading Strategy using the New York Open Range Breakout on XAUUSD.

Summary of the XAUUSD NY ORB Model
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15607790

Gneral version.

Framework Update!! (Read Carefully)
Design Range High Low
Est 9:30-9:32 (1m chart)
Wait for valid breakout & Close
9:36-9:50 (end session)
Checklist:
Rule Candle size
Candle Body Size >60% of total Range
Rule Candle Open- Close Range > ATR(14)×1.6
See image...
- Candle Body size is 151 pips. Candle closes near Low validates Rule 1
- 151 pips> 128 pips also Validates Rule 2
If Both Rule Valid,
Place Sell.
Trade Management
Stop Loss above 3 minute Range high/swing high of internal Structure (whichever is closer).
TP 1: close 50% @1:2 R
immediately bring SL to BE+50% of 1:1 R
TP 2: 1:3 R

Journal 90 Days:
- no adjustment
- no emotion
- precision entry

Our Target is NOT to track profit/Loss
But, Our Target is NOT to change the System

Why we lose money:
- Change system
- Random trading, Revenge (emotional damage)
- Fail to wait for edge to play out

Journal Purpose

Attached File(s)

ny_orb_august_report_enamul.pdf   3 KB | 373 downloads | Uploaded Mar 10, 2026 5:15am

Learn the Math of a Winning System

My trading journal is not for tracking profit or loss. It is a discipline tool designed to prevent system-hopping and emotional decisions. Every trade is recorded only to measure one thing: Did I follow the rules of the NY Open Range Breakout model? If losses occur but the rules were followed, the system remains valid and I continue executing. If rules were broken, the problem is execution, not the strategy. After three consecutive losses, I activate the 3-Loss Protocol and stop trading for the day. The journal exists to protect consistency, maintain statistical thinking, and ensure I commit to the system for the full testing period.



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Why 9:30–9:32 Works?
Understanding What Institutions Actually Do at the Open
Many traders treat the New York Open Range Breakout (ORB) like a random pattern.
In reality, the 9:30–9:32 window works because of market microstructure and institutional order execution.
To understand why the range forms and why breakouts can move explosively, we must first understand what happens when the market opens on the New York Stock Exchange.
1. The Opening Auction (9:30:00)
Before continuous trading begins, the exchange performs an opening auction.
During this phase:

1. Overnight orders accumulate
2. Institutions submit Market-on-Open (MOO) orders
3. Funds submit Limit-on-Open (LOO) orders
4. Overnight news and macro positioning get priced in

All of these orders are matched at a single opening print.
Because of this, the first trades after 9:30 often begin with large buy/sell imbalances.
This is why you frequently see a strong impulse in the first minute candle.
But that is only the beginning.
2. Institutions Cannot Enter Full Size Immediately
Large funds cannot simply press buy or sell with their full position.
For example:
If a fund wants to buy $200 million worth of stock, sending one market order would:

1. Move the price aggressively
2. Cause massive slippage
3. Reveal their intentions to the market

Instead, institutions use execution algorithms.
Typical methods include:

1. VWAP execution
2. TWAP execution
3. Liquidity-seeking algorithms

These algorithms slice large orders into hundreds or thousands of smaller orders.
This process takes time.
3. The First 5 Minutes = Liquidity Discovery
Between 9:30 and 9:32, the market is in what professionals call a price discovery phase.
During this phase institutions are:
• Testing liquidity
• Measuring order flow
• Absorbing opposing orders
• Adjusting their position size
You will often see:

1. Large volume spikes
2. Fast price movements
3. Quick rejections
4. Stops getting triggered

This is not random volatility.
It is the market searching for liquidity.
4. Why a Range Forms
The opening range forms because two forces are fighting for liquidity:

1. Retail traders entering with market orders
2. Institutions entering with passive limit orders

Example:
Retail traders chase momentum and buy aggressively.
Institutions who want to sell into strength place large limit sell orders.
Result:

1. Price pushes up
2. Large sell orders absorb the move
3. Price stalls

This creates the upper boundary of the opening range.
The same process happens on the downside.
After several minutes, the market forms a temporary equilibrium zone.
This is your Opening Range.
5. Why Breakouts From This Range Can Explode
Once the market finishes early positioning:
Two things happen.
Liquidity above and below the range becomes obvious
Stop orders accumulate around those levels
When price breaks the range:

1. Stop orders get triggered
2. Momentum traders jump in
3. Algorithms accelerate the move

This creates the fast expansion phase.
This is why ORB moves often happen suddenly and violently.
6. Why the 9:30–9:32 Window Is So Important
The first five minutes contain:
• Maximum liquidity
• Institutional order adjustment
• Stop placement
• Directional discovery
After this period:

1. Early positioning is largely complete
2. The market has defined its initial balance

That is why many professional traders focus on the first 3-minute range.
It represents the battle between liquidity providers and liquidity takers.
7. What This Means for ORB Traders
When you trade the opening range breakout, you are not trading a pattern.
You are trading the moment when:

1. Institutions finish their early positioning
2. Liquidity pools are identified
3. Stop clusters are ready to trigger

The breakout is simply the release of that pressure.
Final Thought
The opening range is not magic.
It is simply the footprint of institutional order execution during the most liquid moment of the day.
Understand that process, and the ORB becomes much more than a breakout strategy — it becomes a window into how large players build positions.

Download advanced Expansion Model (PDF)

This Advanced Expansion Model uses est 9:30-9:32(1st three candles) to draw Open Range. The entry techniques are same as the General Model discussed above.

I personally use Advanced Expansion Model. The Stop Loss is smaller.
I will post charts and examples in the replies.
Let’s discuss and improve together.

why 9:30-9:32 range works?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15590390
how can you build patience?
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15607810

NY Open Gold Trade 20 February 2026

Have a look at this trades. Both trades 70% partial closed at 1:1. Price then hit Break Even.
2nd Trade: didnt pullback to FVG but pull backed & printed bearish engulf supporting session momentum.
Soon i will explain how long to trade this system. There's a mechanical way of identifying the end of the momentum rush. Stay tuned!!

What is the significance of beginning at 9:20 time to monitor the range?

I know the stock market opens at 9:30 New York.

Thanks

Good question. NY gold trading open breakout strategy requires daily preparation. The routine is to keep an eye on last 5 minute high low range which is (9:26am-9:30am)-5 candles bedore new york open at 9:30.

Hence, we open chart at 9:20am daily as part of the routine.

I can watch the chart all day; I think you did not understand my question.

What is the significance of the actual 5 x 1-minute candles from 9:26 to 9:30?

Is it related to stock market moving, or news release times?

Gold is already "open" already by then, 15- or 16-hours trading done.

Thanks.

Okay i understand your question now.
Let me explain why we focus on 9:26-9:30 range: Since the day has been open for hours thats the macro. Macro means the bigger picture. However, we as a scalper want to capitalize on an environment (specific location) that is in fact a micro.

I blew up a lot of account scalping based on macro bias end up getting abnormally random price action mostly hammering my stop losses. We all do that! We all get hammered!!

Now why 9:26-9:30 range works?
Thinking micro, 9:26-9:30 (5m preNY range) is an area when price get squeezed. You are most likely to see overlapping candles, small body big wick candles suggesting tightness. This micro behavior isn't random nor is the move that comes afterwards.

You know Price gets tight when it’s well balanced. And explodes to find new pocket of liquidity. This is the main reason price burst as the NY opens. But not all the bursts are legit. This is when we need confluence. (See the 3 confluences i mentioned in the main thread post). You will notice, micro sqeeze right bedore NY open followed by quick momentum rush.

any advice for biggner ?

Ny open breakout strategy can be your cup of tea. if you are a begginer the biggest challenge for you is to:
- trust a process and stick to it
Remember, market reward those who are serious enough to abide by a strategy. Money follows.

If i were you and wanted a scalping career, i would do the following:
- stop observing chart all day
- focus on preNY range
- wait for price to break and close beyond the range and create FVG
- wait for pullback to fvg and reject
- if all align, place trade
- trade only the first 30m after NY open
- follow strict money management no matter the result
- journal 50-100 trades to understand profitability, drawdown, profit factor

Best wishes!

Seems like a very simple and mechanical strategy. Why not code it and properly backtest the method? Did you see the market doing this a few times and thought this was an edge? Or did you actually backtest it..

What I find difficult to code is to tell it to execute based on the power of that move.
XAUUSD NY Break out strategy works like magic! But hard to code my instinct.
I earned $110 during last 3 month. $2 last week. It took me years to understand that professionals risk so low that it doesn’t really matter.

NY Open Breakout therefore requires understanding of volatility based delta shift using a mental framework.

Actual execution requires you to learn the following applications:
- Two candle rejection science
- velocity of the movement
- rejection strength

Finally, you are a volatility matching matchine. Not all the engulfing candle has the same velocity. Therefore it’s incorrect to justify them as identical.






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Great stuff. Did you test it at other opens, ie London open?

Cheers

PC

Thank you.
NY Open Range Breakout works best on NY. You know it’s because NY often distributes.
I tried London open but with lower win rate. Stop loss suffers higher hit rate due to price manipulation.

Hello, I read your post. I'm not sure if I fully understood the logic, but I tried to replicate it by creating an indicator for TradingView following your instructions posted here on the forum. I think it could be very helpful to make it easier to read. I'll upload the .txt file with the open-source code so that other members can modify and improve it until it reaches a good level.

Most Days......He opened the thread 20 hours ago

apologies to all - posted this on the wrong thread!

gold open range breakout london today.

You will notice, it broke and close below range confirming bearish bias.. Now remember the Drop Base Drop sequence... Here i placed the trade right when the base was engulfed by a bearish candle.

70% closed at 1:1

Gold ny open range breakout today

Salaams, Ramadan Mubarak bro tiptoptrade
. Thank you for a wonderful simplified system,this is what xau/usd created this morning during the trading period.
Notice,when the gap filled price spiked lower.

Yes, I saw about this strategy on YouTube, but it was said to be from 9:30 to 9:35, that is, 5 minutes after the session opens. During this time, there is a struggle between sellers and buyers, and if there is a breakout upwards, it means the buyers are stronger, and that is what we work from.

dont wait for session to open to draw range. That's already too late most of the time.