Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? | Metals Mine

  • Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?

    From libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

    Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers. In the chart below, we plot U.S. import tariffs by month in 2025. The blue dots depict the average statutory tariff rate, weighted by 2024 annual import values. The red dots show the average duty rate by month, calculated as total duties collected divided by the value of total imports. The average tariff rate ... (full story)

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ffghost
Feb 12, 2026 11:22am
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TLDR: "Given that the average tariff in December was 13 percent (see the first chart), our results imply that U.S. import prices for goods subject to the average tariff increased by 11 percent (13 times 0.86) more than those for goods not subject to tariffs. These higher import prices caused firms to reorganize supply chains, as suggested by the findings presented in the two charts above.

In sum, U.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025. "



Should make for some interesting CPI numbers in the coming months, right? Leading to fewer rate cuts due to inflation decreases....which means rate cuts that do happen are for 'emergency' reasons (potentially)....which the equity markets will hate.

Today's tumble on "AI taking over more sector jobs" fears though, if that really was the catalyst, is ridiculously painful for such a small concern in the near term. I know markets are forward looking, but how soon is there really going to be a sizable impact? It can't be within 3-6 moths, can it?
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ffghost
Feb 12, 2026 12:44pm — Edited
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}pretty easy to arm them - for "peacekeeping" of course. The drones that are small enough to fly into your ear and detonate are coming soon, too.
So, total recall in real life? Or iRobot? Or Terminator? Go figure.

"Los locos kick your ass. Los locos kick your face. Los locos kick your balls INTO OUTER SPACE!" - Johnny FIVE



Ah, murder drones. I sense a business opportunity in ear intrusion security! Then again, I guess the audio ear bud market has that pretty well covered. Maybe the next frontier is in some type of nostril protection?
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ffghost
Feb 12, 2026 1:20pm
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Quoting Jr123
{quote} Israeli style ear buds that's a scary thought.
Meh, a few hundred/thousand deaths from that. Sad, but not apocoplyptic.

You wait until some AI agent doing biological research decides humanity is going to overpopulate and needs to be culled to save itself. A few dozen "covid-like" viruses popped out one after another across the world and then a host of deadly, time delay bugs administered via "vaccines" that wipe out 50% of those who elect to take it....science fiction....until it's not. (and no, I don't THINK that will happen, but it is scary to know how plausible it really is)

...but for now, let's get more AI built up as fast as possible: we need the ability to add more varieties of cat ears to selfies, darnit! <<< says the guy WAY over invested in AI/tech presently
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The Fool
Feb 12, 2026 11:46am
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Quoting ffghost
Today's tumble on "AI taking over more sector jobs" fears though, if that really was the catalyst, is ridiculously painful for such a small concern in the near term. I know markets are forward looking, but how soon is there really going to be a sizable impact? It can't be within 3-6 moths, can it?...
well, we'll see. Certain tech companies (META, AMZN, etc) are already crowing about their layoffs, made possible by adoption of AI. Maybe they're just getting started. Beyond that, people are asking more and more of the inevitable questions: with a shrinking workforce, what is the impact on the rest of the economy? How will "legacy" commercial RE fare, if yyou no longer need as much (or any) office space for human minions to slave away in? And in a consumer-based economy, a shrinking workforce means less consumption. The ramifications are many and far-reaching and it'll be interesting to see how these changes transpire. The rate of such transpiration going parabolic is, in itself, a market factor....
The Fool
Feb 12, 2026 11:49am
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Quoting ffghost
Today's tumble on "AI taking over more sector jobs" ..
there's that and also imo a delayed reaction to the real news in yesterday's NFP - the large downward revisions and resultant factoid that jobs only increased @ 15,000 per month on average for all of 2025. We are on the verge of a labor recession.
The Fool
Feb 12, 2026 12:07pm
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Yeah I thought yesterday's rally was out of sorts with the "good news = bad news" imperative, anyway. But the "good news" was on the headline number and that is what a lot of bots are pulling the trigger on. You're right it only takes a second to read all the data but the simpler the algo, the better. They are not all weighing a lot of intangibles. Anyway I am cashed out of all short trades, which were set for Friday expiry, and I will not be surprised at all to see BN=GN back in play for Friday, with the typical V-bottom rally. I'll throw few coins in the pot for that outcome.
The Fool
Feb 12, 2026 12:39pm
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Quoting Jr123
I can't wait for large scale deployment of robots like Tesla's. There's going to be a huge job opportunity for people who are trained in picking them up off the floor and charging them when they don't make it back to their charging stations every 15 minutes.
pretty easy to arm them - for "peacekeeping" of course. The drones that are small enough to fly into your ear and detonate are coming soon, too.
ffghost
Feb 12, 2026 11:59am
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Quoting The Fool
{quote}there's that and also imo a delayed reaction to the real news in yesterday's NFP - the large downward revisions and resultant factoid that jobs only increased @ 15,000 per month on average for all of 2025. We are on the verge of a labor recession.
I know that looking for a reason often causes analysts to turn back the clock a few days, but I don't put much credit in "delayed" reactions. The news, and reaction to the news/numbers, is almost immediate.

It takes seconds to digest (hours if you have faith in humans actually doing it). The world decided what to do yesterday and in the overnight (Asian/EU) markets regarding jobs. FED rate cut odds shifted, markets fell. Then rallied based on an overextension.

Today's move is on "new" info. Unfortunately, unlike yesterday, volatility remains well bid. That means this drawdown has staying power. CPI tomorrow now becomes very much in play. These levels aren't attractive and fallout could easily ensue (and I'm really worried about that) should the markets not like what they see.

I would very much have preferred to enter CPI on highs/ for the S&P. Today's price action is brutal if you're a bull.

....but, of course, that is just my opinion.
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ffghost
Feb 12, 2026 12:42pm
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Quoting The Fool
Yeah I thought yesterday's rally was out of sorts with the "good news = bad news" imperative, anyway. But the "good news" was on the headline number and that is what a lot of bots are pulling the trigger on. You're right it only takes a second to read all the data but the simpler the algo, the better. They are not all weighing a lot of intangibles. Anyway I am cashed out of all short trades, which were set for Friday expiry, and I will not be surprised at all to see BN=GN back in play for Friday, with the typical V-bottom rally....

I really hope for that v bottom as well...but you only get so many 2-day bottoming patterns before something breaks. Take a look at the /nq on the following dates: 11/20-11/21, 12/17-12/18, 1/20-1/21, 2/5-2/6.

Personally, I breathed a sigh of relief last week on the 6th withe the huge rally. I thought: "FINALLY, that is the boost needed to get the /nq back to ATHs". How wrong that now feels. It never even touched the 20 or 50day MA. If the VIX stays elevated today (and there's no "scheduled" reason to suggest it could fall substantially before CPI), tomorrow's price action is going to be wild.

What we really need is a return to highs today. A nice 80 pt rally in the /es by the close. Quick, everyone go buy $500 billion in futures contracts. That might move the needle just enough.....

Edit: If /vx can drop below 19.5 (preferably into the 18 handle), bulls might be able to stage a SLIGHT afternoon rally as there is nothing but air between about 6900 and 6960 on the /es. That's a tall ask though.
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The Fool
Feb 12, 2026 12:57pm
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https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post15573724
Jr123
Feb 12, 2026 12:34pm
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I can't wait for large scale deployment of robots like Tesla's. There's going to be a huge job opportunity for people who are trained in picking them up off the floor and charging them when they don't make it back to their charging stations every 15 minutes.
Reply
Jr123
Feb 12, 2026 1:10pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} So, total recall in real life? Or iRobot? Or Terminator? Go figure. "Los locos kick your ass. Los locos kick your face. Los locos kick your balls INTO OUTER SPACE!" - Johnny FIVE Ah, murder drones. I sense a business opportunity in ear intrusion security! Then again, I guess the audio ear bud market has that pretty well covered. Maybe the next frontier is in some type of nostril protection?
Israeli style ear buds that's a scary thought.
Reply
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