Price Action & Order Flow (Gold|Silver|Copper)

Price as the foundation for market speculation (pt.1)

The career of a trader is built on the fluctuation of price in a given market. The trader is constantly on the lookout for acceptance and rejection of prices, support and resistence levels, ranges of demand and supply; these are with no doubt, the essential means by which a trader acquires insights into a given market, but how often does the trader actually study price in a market? How often does the trader take profit on a previous high/low only to watch the market continue in the direction?

Market objectivity requires bold belief in probability, but how can one begin to measure probability in the first place?
Price ranges are the foundation of that measurement, since price is the medium through which all movement occurs in a market.
Now, how do we know what prices will a market respect the most? Or how can we know a key price before the market reacts to it as a key price?

. . .

The blueprint

1. Primary price (depending on a market): psychological/major figures - 1, 2, 3, ..., 10, 20, 30, ..., 100, 200, 300, ..., 1000, 2000, 3000, ...
The distance or difference between two major figures creates a range, but because price fluctuation is limited by many factors, the movement of a market cannot be actual according to these ranges alone. Therefore, the ranges are scaled or divided in a fractal manner to compensate or meet the demands of market mechanics. Thus:
2. Secondary price: 1/2 of the primary range - 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, ... 15, 25, 35, ... 150, 250, 350, ... 1500, 2500, 3500, ...
3. Tertiary price: 1/2 of the secondary ranges (bottom half, top half) - 1.25, 1.75, 2.25, 2.75, ... 125, 175, 225, 275, ... 1250, 1750, 2250, 2750, ...
(4. Quaternary price depending on the market, primarily if a market moves in larger ranges - high volatility)

Note: Price Ranges are adjusted according to terms, but the blueprint remains the same.


Conclusion: key prices and ranges that we know with certainty the market will always react to and weigh its movement; this is the foundation for the system of probability (pt.2 if there is interest).

These damned bastards at the top should be whipped day and night and thrown into horse shit.

Tight spot.
(Monthly VP & VWAP)

Not looking good for longs. Buyers are getting repeatedly absorbed on tops.

Not the best situation to be in for longs, regardless of price.
Silver has an ongoing CVD divergence, not a good sign for bullish confidence.
Gold is inconsistent in volumes, we see that the only thing keeping price from a correction are those institutional spikes to keep price up. When sellers get absorbed as the price goes up, there should typically be rising delta after the absorption on the bottoms, here it lacks the confidence; not a good sign for longs.

It's all very unstable at this point.

The first image shows a good example of insider trading: bids appeared some hour & 15 min before Trump announced a decision on Hassett.
In the second image we can see the difference in the book, offers vs bids, while a cluster of bids still sits at around 4,500
I don't know really what to expect at this point, but the market is sus. It would be great to catch a sellof tho, maybe a correction to that cluster at 4,500; whatever the case, I ain't risking longs here, things don't feel right.

Here is a market behavior puzzle.
Who can tell me why the current rally in Gold is fake?

Not sure but weekly has RSI bearish divergence in place depending on weekly close this week ... 3 highs on candle and weekly RSI has 3 lower lows ... Mind to explain this fake rally? 4900 seems like the level they are hunting before a good retracement down

Well, look at the difference in bids and offers, and which side is attracting price. Half of these offers get cancelled when price approaches, and then get added on higher prices, which further attracts price upwards, while bids are thin really, and we know that the market wants to go where there is higher liquidity. On top of that, all of the large buyer volume is just the fill on large offers, no real bullish strength or momentum (as is reflected on the RSI) just algos pushing price to fill offers.
Well, my guess is that profit taking wants to be done at the highest price possible before a healthy correction. This could be all the way to 5.000, really doesn't matter, they have a target and they'll push the price to that target. So if you ask me, there's no real rally right now, only institutions accumulating and exiting at higher prices.
Look at Silver also, negative delta from the beginning of the month and still dropping, while price is held high. That's textbook reversal condition.
It's evident in both markets that there is exhaustion on the buy side.

Agree ... a real correction is massively overdue ... with so many gaps being ignored ... just a matter of time ... let's see how high it goes ...

Look at the difference in distribution of large volumes, the buys fill every large offer while the sells can't even reach the true liquidity on the bids. The sells appear in the same price ranges as the buys, meaning that they are filling their immediate bids to make a quick profit on the way to accumulation on the opposite side of the trade.

Well...looks like we ain't that far from truth.

Look at how desperate they are for a higher price.
Meanwhile, look at where the real demand is, every time the price drops demand shifts lower, after all, who really wants to buy at these prices?
Inequality finds its way in everything. Gold gapped up on the Greenland threats and EU tariffs, but now finds it difficult to sell off when tensions are cooling? Of course it does, the big boys are not fully positioned yet. They will justify their actions on literally anything that fits their frame. If you ask me, all of these prices are fake, remember how many times we should've seen a correction only based on news, instead they lower it some 2 - 3% and pump it double the next day.
Capitalism fucked up everything it could and waits for more things to fuck up. They couldn't care less about the healthy operation of a market, all they see is their targets and everyone else can go suck their own dicks. What a fucked up world we live in.

CVD price range correlation Gold & Silver.
(Bottom - Delta per bar)
If the decline in CVD was due to filling large bids this would restore some bullish confidence, but the bids are basically nonexistent. That's what the order flow is saying, not me.

Today I got convinced and was proven that nothing matters in the market except what the institutions take for their benefit. The only rule is price and what the price does, everything else is more or less insignificant. My previous post is a prime example of how nothing matters except what the big boys want; perfect bearish setup especially in Silver, then NY opens the session and shoots up to ATH...
To all beginner traders out there who want to understand the markets, friendly advice: Don't bother with understanding the market, just trade the price.

Anyways, here is a remastered price study that's universally applicable, for whomever finds it useful...

Most relevant key prices for a market depend on the market's volatility and average daily range, therefore the price ranges act as references for present and future price movement. Generally, the higher the volatility or daily range the wider the price ranges.
In the Gold market, the intraday/short-term range is set by every 100 which acts as a psychological level, the range is divided into round even numbers or every 20 as seen in the first image. I don't know why the market prefers some numbers over others, generally every market prefers round numbers; Gold seems to prefer the 20's, 40's, 60's, etc. The mid-term to long-term range is set every 500 and the range is divided into major round numbers.
The same principle is applied to the Silver market: find major round numbers based on the market characteristics and divide the range into 5 equal sections or 4 minor prices, this gives the most relevant key prices. For intraday Silver the major range is set by 5; mid-term to long-term every 20, although I initially counted by 10's, but that is still short-term really.

If anyone finds this useful I can talk about the essential trading strategy based on this.

A pullback to 220 - 180 wouldn't hurt. Considering the momentum, the target could easily be 5,500.

This is ridiculous...

So, from a technical viewpoint, if we consider a measured move from 2.000 to 6.000, we get 50% retracement on 4.000, which would actually be a healthy 33.3% correction after the rally. Historical corrections were usually between 20% and 40% with a few exceptions.
We have the anchored VWAP from the breakout of 3.000 approaching 4.000, so that would act as an additional support along with the VAH of the 2024 VP. If a correction does happen, we're looking at 4.000 as the floor, and the next measured move would be to 8.000
This is, of course, a long term perspective.

A measured move from the gap on the 18th, comes right at the 50% retracement, LVN, and now anchored VWAP from the gap approaching 5.100
This could be the discount to 6.000 especially considering yesterday's liquidity flush.
What do you guys think?