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Make More Money - Eliminate DRAMA 11 replies

Just posting my trades, everyone is welcome but no drama 2 replies

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Gold with No Drama

  • #27,261
  • Jan 14, 2026 3:50am Jan 14, 2026 3:50am
Dollar Analysis
The Dollar Index is holding above the 98.90-99.00 support zone and continues to trade in an upward structure indicating active buyers. As long as price remains above 98.80 the bias stays bullish with upside targets near 99.85 and 100.20. A dip into the 99.00-98.90 area would be a normal pullback while a clear break below 98.50 would weaken the bullish view.
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Patience
  • #27,262
  • Jan 14, 2026 3:57am Jan 14, 2026 3:57am
Quoting SibiSh
Gold 1H Analysis Gold is moving within a rising channel but is currently showing short term bearish correction signs after rejecting the 4585-4600 supply zone. Price is consolidating around 4580 and struggling to hold above the 4575-4555. A pullback toward 4538-4520 is likely before buyers step in again. As long as price stays above 4520 the overall structure remains bullish but short term momentum favors a dip. Buy Zone: 4535 - 4520 Targets: 4585 - 4625 - 4680 Stop Loss: Below 4495 A clean bounce from support would confirm continuation toward new...
Gold needs to break 4620 area properly for downward movement and if not then might be 4680 or 4710.
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Patience
  • #27,263
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:09am Jan 14, 2026 4:09am
Quoting thebigshot
{quote} The risk to watch. YEN Futures {image} AT the circle, BOJ previously intervene to save the YEN. If BOJ intervention expectation start to show up, Everything will be sold off. But the 02y real interest rate in japan is still positive. which push liquidity out of risk curve and travel way to Bitcoin. {image} Even the lowest quality index in japan are on the rise, indicating tons of liquidity. This role into US equities and bitcoin (high beta assets) {image} Net foreign investment by japan. Why is that? Japanese saves today's money for tomorrow...
Ahmm
As we speak
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No more engagement as from today.
  • #27,264
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:35am Jan 14, 2026 4:35am
Quoting has22v
I have no idea where the market is headed today
Take a look at H1. PA has been operating above EMA 10 since today's Open and is still rising for now. You can enjoy the ride for now and begin to be cautious when it gets to 4650
  • #27,265
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:38am Jan 14, 2026 4:38am
Quoting thebigshot
{quote} Ahmm As we speak {image}
Coupled with the above

WHY every high beta assets tend to fall when YEN rise??

Answer is here
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Japan is the biggest foreign holders of US treasuries.
So when BOJ intervenes, they dump US treasuries to buy YEN.
OF their $1.2 TRILLION holdings, they may spend up to $100bn in one intervention.

THis DIRECTLY affects the CARRY TRADE.

Carry TRADE:
BOJ interest rate: 0.75%
US interest rate: 3.75%
Rate-differential: 3.00%
US 10Y bond yield: 4.17% (issued on monday)
30Y yield: 4.77% (Issued on Tuesday)
Interest rate on savings account in japan: 0.25%

Pension funds spread: 4.17%- 0.25%, ... my maths are weak!

The borrowing (saving account) denoted in YEN, so banks need to exchange to USD to be able to buy US shite.

USD..... USD (constant)
----- = ----------------- = SHite falls.
JPY .......JPY (rise)


Making everything priced in JPY becomes more expensive. Hence so do the borrowing(saving account).

JPY return back to JAPAN, with fear of margin Call.

The whole carry trade setup is one big beautiful trade, as majority high risk assets are priced in the reserve currency (USD).

The only problem here, is not USD.

But majority of these YEN money, exchanged to USD, then exhanged to risk assets (US indices, stocks, metals, Futures, Swaps, ETFs, Options,...)

When the bell is ringing in JAPAN, YEN must/need/are forced to return to Japan.
Hence, They sell risks assets, to USD, then USD to JPY.

Risk Assets down. USD may/may not down JPY UP.
Which return us to our 'shite fall' scenario.


But can USD fall ??
It could be,
it they decide to dump T bills, notes and bonds are well and money repatriate from other nation, like Europe.




P/s:
My last post in January.
Going to Uyghur to get married to my 3rd wife.
No more engagement as from today.
  • #27,266
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:38am Jan 14, 2026 4:38am
It seems price will be testing London high soon
I think it will break ...I might be wrong
  • #27,267
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:45am Jan 14, 2026 4:45am
Quoting fontu
{quote} Yeah as of now situation till starts the war for further up and fall when all will fall next time , when not paper money or gold or anything else be can't able buy a grain of food or a drop of clean water even theoretically and technically for next target down for many years now 1033 .let's see Ok come now time , May next target 4716 and extension may 4802 before correction possible again ! {image} {image}
Yes ,this is what I need,same perspective 4700-4800 wave 5 and above all extension 4100 is a easy target after wave 5 completes
Positive pips to All
  • #27,268
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:45am Jan 14, 2026 4:45am
Quoting PixelAura
{quote} Yes ,this is what I need,same perspective 4700-4800 wave 5 and above all extension 4100 is a easy target after wave 5 completes
Will add swing low for 10months too
Positive pips to All
  • #27,269
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:50am Jan 14, 2026 4:50am
Today,a break of 4640 can push to 4645-54,then retracement to 4575-55
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Positive pips to All
  • #27,270
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:56am Jan 14, 2026 4:56am
Quoting thebigshot
{quote} Coupled with the above WHY every high beta assets tend to fall when YEN rise?? Answer is here {image} Japan is the biggest foreign holders of US treasuries. So when BOJ intervenes, they dump US treasuries to buy YEN. OF their $1.2 TRILLION holdings, they may spend up to $100bn in one intervention. THis DIRECTLY affects the CARRY TRADE. Carry TRADE: BOJ interest rate: 0.75% US interest rate: 3.75% Rate-differential: 3.00% US 10Y bond yield: 4.17% (issued on monday) 30Y yield: 4.77% (Issued on Tuesday) Interest rate on savings account in japan:...
Whats the impact for gold?
Thanks
Stay Gold
  • #27,271
  • Jan 14, 2026 4:59am Jan 14, 2026 4:59am
Quoting PixelAura
Today,a break of 4640 can push to 4645-54,then retracement to 4575-55 {image}
there are total 3 gaps to be filled including today’s, what are your thoughts on that??

thanks
  • #27,272
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:00am Jan 14, 2026 5:00am
some proper bad ass bouncers at 4640 break above takes us into decent money area.
Insane in the Brain..
  • #27,273
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:04am Jan 14, 2026 5:04am
Quoting Goldslave
{quote} Whats the impact for gold? Thanks
When borrowers need to raise cash to cover their leveraged bet, whatever consist in their portfolio, they need to sell off.

We will see a waterfall shortly.


The high officials in Japan start making it difficult for flow of liquidity.
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No more engagement as from today.
  • #27,274
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:12am Jan 14, 2026 5:12am
Im selling back to 4600 maybe lower to 4548
  • #27,275
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:19am Jan 14, 2026 5:19am
Quoting ciptrader
Im selling back to 4600 maybe lower to 4548
I don't think now is the right time, maybe in 4 hours.
  • #27,276
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:29am Jan 14, 2026 5:29am
Quoting Raventine
{quote} there is no such ATH only high and higher
ATH (All-Time Higher)... DUHHHH
and yes, high and higher exist tho...
  • #27,277
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:39am Jan 14, 2026 5:39am
Are the bulls now tired without overcoming 4640? The next M15 close might tell us
  • #27,278
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:43am Jan 14, 2026 5:43am
If we dont break 4620 lower than we are going higher to 4660.
  • #27,279
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:54am Jan 14, 2026 5:54am
Quoting azhantahir
{quote} TFM15/TFM1 (LTF) IMHO {image}

Just personal opinion. Refer own preference for better RRR. IMHO
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Look right, we'll see the signs
  • #27,280
  • Jan 14, 2026 5:57am Jan 14, 2026 5:57am
Once we break 4620 on hourly chart we are going lower to retest the supply demand area.
If we don't break 4620 keep an eye for a new new bullish from here 4620 to 4658 -4660
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