At least two more Fed cuts likely in 2026, says Moody's Mark Zandi | Metals Mine

  • At least two more Fed cuts likely in 2026, says Moody's Mark Zandi

    From youtube.com/cnbctelevision

    Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest employment data, what could be a theme for next year and much more.
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StevenD
Dec 24, 2025 6:09pm
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Lol. Trump's been stacking the Fed like he stacked SCOTUS. Bostic retires in what, February? Another Trump loyalist will be taking his place. Whoever Powell's seat goes to, ditto. You'd have to be willfully ignorant to think they're not going to cut like crazy once it's finally revealed next year that US ex-AI capex has been in recession for what will by then have been several quarters already.
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Aussi
Dec 25, 2025 11:16pm
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Quoting TimmyBTrades
{quote} Bostic replacement is by Atlanta Fed board and confirmed by the Fed Board of Govs not by POTUS, and Powell's term on the BoG doesn't end until 2028 (he may resign after his Chair term ends next year but shouldn't if they will put a stooge in). Something to keep an eye on but no imminent threat of a Trump FOMC takeover.
thats what you get when you win an election
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TimmyBTrades
Dec 24, 2025 8:41pm
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Quoting StevenD
Lol. Trump's been stacking the Fed like he stacked SCOTUS. Bostic retires in what, February? Another Trump loyalist will be taking his place. Whoever Powell's seat goes to, ditto. You'd have to be willfully ignorant to think they're not going to cut like crazy once it's finally revealed next year that US ex-AI capex has been in recession for what will by then have been several quarters already.
Bostic replacement is by Atlanta Fed board and confirmed by the Fed Board of Govs not by POTUS, and Powell's term on the BoG doesn't end until 2028 (he may resign after his Chair term ends next year but shouldn't if they will put a stooge in). Something to keep an eye on but no imminent threat of a Trump FOMC takeover.
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TimmyBTrades
Dec 25, 2025 10:46am
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Quoting StevenD
{quote} Fed BoG is increasingly staffed by Trump loyalists, who don't yet have a majority at just 3/7, but who can absolutely sway the confirmation process. If the non-Trump-appointed BoG has even 1 thumbs down (for unrelated reasons, such as disagreement on monetary policy) to any Atlanta nominee that Trump doesn't like, that nominee isn't getting the job. A cohesive minority + a fragmented majority = effective veto power for the minority. The Trump bloc only needs to find one independent who happens to agree with them on any specific nominee for...
Scary scenario, but I don't agree that Waller and Bowman are Trump loyalists. They have agreed with the President on rate path, but they have not showed any indication that they will listen to the administration on appointments. Even a non-Trump aligned vote against a regional appointee would be shocking to me, as the BoG has never failed to confirm a regional appointee.

I do agree that it will be interesting to see a Chairman that presumably disagree with the majority of the FOMC. Agenda setting power is definitely not nothing, but I remain skeptical it will meaningfully influence policy that is not 50/50 already.

If Cook is able to be fired the risk of a politically influenced Fed goes up a good deal, and if there is enough support in Congress there could be an changes to the Federal Reserve Act (as Bessent/administration is advocating for). Both would meaningfully hurt independence and thus outcomes, but I am doubtful we are at or near the tipping point yet.
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Schultz
Dec 25, 2025 4:02am
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Quoting StevenD
Lol. Trump's been stacking the Fed like he stacked SCOTUS. Bostic retires in what, February? Another Trump loyalist will be taking his place. Whoever Powell's seat goes to, ditto. You'd have to be willfully ignorant to think they're not going to cut like crazy once it's finally revealed next year that US ex-AI capex has been in recession for what will by then have been several quarters already.
All of which makes me ponder from afar as to what these Trump loyalists must have as their game strategy.

Knowing that if they go all partisan with a maniac the reputation with which their respective institutions are beholden will implode. No superlatives are sufficient.
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Schultz
Dec 27, 2025 4:32am
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This is what I reckon. The other Fed members will be on red flag alert. This doesn't even need to be said.

Should the new Chair display any hint of advocating a Trump agenda, they will be displeased. That'd be really dumb of the new Chair.

It is not in the interests of the Chair to have a hostile committee.

Shouldn't all of this be abundantly obvious to blind freddy?
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Aussi
Dec 26, 2025 9:09pm
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Quoting TimmyBTrades
{quote} Sure, 1 selection this term out of a 16 person FOMC pool
was it something i said
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TimmyBTrades
Dec 26, 2025 1:44pm
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Quoting Aussi
{quote}thats what you get when you win an election
Sure, 1 selection this term out of a 16 person FOMC pool
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StevenD
Dec 25, 2025 10:20am
Permalink
Quoting TimmyBTrades
{quote} Bostic replacement is by Atlanta Fed board and confirmed by the Fed Board of Govs not by POTUS, and Powell's term on the BoG doesn't end until 2028 (he may resign after his Chair term ends next year but shouldn't if they will put a stooge in). Something to keep an eye on but no imminent threat of a Trump FOMC takeover.
Fed BoG is increasingly staffed by Trump loyalists, who don't yet have a majority at just 3/7, but who can absolutely sway the confirmation process. If the non-Trump-appointed BoG has even 1 thumbs down (for unrelated reasons, such as disagreement on monetary policy) to any Atlanta nominee that Trump doesn't like, that nominee isn't getting the job. A cohesive minority + a fragmented majority = effective veto power for the minority. The Trump bloc only needs to find one independent who happens to agree with them on any specific nominee for any reason.

Atlanta's fed board isn't dumb, they know this, and I'd bet they'll end up picking someone more moderate or even lukewarm to Trump admin's philosophy to appease the Trump loyalists. There is an indirect influence cascade at play here.

Powell might not yet be leaving the board, but his time in the spotlight is up, and while every Fed BoG member nominally has the same amount of voting power, chair does have non-zero influence on the way the conversations go internally. It's not hard to see the pattern here.
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Trader#9114
Dec 25, 2025 12:09am
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The Creature From Jekyll Island
The Money Master 1996
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