Good morning/ evening amazing people! Entered and tped already @143. Looking for another entries in London. But hope everyone getting very best result on this session! GL! 
Best trade is a forward looking
Lets look at the risks waiting for us in 2026:
#1 US treasury funding
#2 YEN carry trade
#3 China credit system.
#1 US treasury funding crisis 
P/s: If you cannt quantify your belief and ideas, keep your stories and assumptions to yourself and please dont quote me.
Lets look at the risks waiting for us in 2026:
#1 US treasury funding
#2 YEN carry trade
#3 China credit system.
#1 US treasury funding crisis
- Uncontrollable Deficit
- Interest cost rising
- Bid-to-Cover weakening
- Foreign Demand Falling
- Dealer are overloaded with forced Treasury acquisition
This setup will reflect the 2022 UK gilts crisis, where a single day wide SPIKE in GBPUSD and larger bid-ask spread. WILL dump US equities, treasuries and whatever the hell US issued for Dollar, then dump the dollar for GOLD, and CHF. [bitcoin will go down with US equities, because it is viewed as a risk assets (not safe haven yet)]
#2 BOJ forced carry trade unwind
- BOJ is the LARGEST US treasuries foreign holder
- Funding currency
- carry engine
New Japan PM, want to flood the market with freshly printed cash, Yen value fall. With is a good thing, at least for the time being.
But above USDJPY 160+, MOF/BOJ msut intervene.
carry trade unwinds, pension funds in jp, must liquidate foreign assets (US treasuries) this will amplify the dip in both bonds and equities market.
#3 CHINA sits on $9-10 trillion local govt debt bubble
- One major SOE/LGFV default -> Yuan devaluation -> EM panic -> Commodity SHOCK
This setup will start with US and ENDS with CHINA. During this period, you will buy into your monthly Oversold RSI, only later to find out CHINA deliver the last blow. Then you will say, i bought the dip, but it keeps dipping.
US equities, treasuries and bitcoin will lose at least 30% value.
SIlver will lags GOLD and Gold/silver ratio will falls.
Ladies and gents, this will be only the Phase I in 2026, a FUNDING shock.
And it will more probably start with 30y yield surge, where market will priced in FED policy error.
The Phase II will be solvency crisis. By injecting more money.
Inflation runaway, until deflation hits up.
"THE GREAT RESET"
After that the bottom of bitcoin, will no longer perceived as a risk assets,
it will become a safe haven that will appear in central bank balance sheet.
P/s: If you cannt quantify your belief and ideas, keep your stories and assumptions to yourself and please dont quote me.
No more engagement as from today.
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SURFER