Hoping for 4155-60 and if hold then most probably will go up. If not hold then might be yesterday low. Lets see {image}
Patience
- #13,961
- Nov 14, 2025 1:26am Nov 14, 2025 1:26am
- Joined Jun 2025 | Status: Trader | 1,839 Posts | Online Now
{quote} With movie analogy, plot twist in the storyline is what makes retail traders lose money
{quote} GOLD weekly {image} External structure {image} GLD Borrow fee {image} Ask Chatgpt or deepseek what is meant by a spike in borrow fee. Raise my target from 4800 to probably 5600-5700. FED already started dumping dollar in repo. Japan carry trade position unwind today. Thing like this indicates swing bottom/top. It becomes more diffcult to put on a trade, yet that trade is life changing. USE swap free account to hold for the next quarter.
Short setup insight, but no confirmation yet appear to short low risk, high reward and high probability.
Weekly
4 ends before 38% of the time duration of wave 3
This gives us a probability of the current swing low to get sweep.
For this up swing to be a B, the C must ends before 100% of A, but here it breaks 100% of A and ends before 162% which put us in a sweet spot of 2 option to perceived as short-Wave iii or Wave C.
H4-External structure
As we can see, [iv] is right at 38% of [iii], so probability for [v] stays as Upswing internal structure intact. For short validation, 4097 low must be broken to produce Shift in structure and open our road for probability of a wave C.
Now lets move to Fundamental,
FED watch showed falling probab for a cut in DEC after last powell speeches.
This induces the real interest rate to become more positive and this extract liquidity from the market.
This explains why BITCOIN, SPX, NAS100 and Rusell are
.WILL gold Falling, YES?
This chart showed Implied Volatility. As Yield up (white), imp vol for commodity falling.
However, the market is betting on the idea that FED WILL NOT CUT IN DEC.
Almost 18 trading days before next FOMC.
My bias is inflation risk is falling, this is 01y inflation swap - 02y inf swap. With red area getting smaller, and ready to jump in green area, enable FED to add for CUT.
So the Fall in equity, will be more likely a short lived.
As the next leg for GOLD? Ranging market, will probably follows the same major WEEKLY WAVE 4
I once read in a book about Elliot wave, that the minor wave take the same form of its major wave.
This will also confirm the theory of Wave 4 that ends before 38% of the time duration of Wave 3
My longs, partial TP, and SL set at 4x of risk.
Will short for ranging market for C, and FED in DEC will deliver the bomb but a dovish surprise.
Low risk Swing short setup appeared yesterday but i was in denial. But to be a trader, our job is to look for bias, probability and confirmation.
WHAT + WHY = WHERE as i said before.
GOOD luck to us all, if FED decides not to cut in DEC
No more engagement as from today.
- #13,967
- Nov 14, 2025 1:53am Nov 14, 2025 1:53am
- Joined Jun 2025 | Status: Trader | 1,839 Posts | Online Now
Gold hold the 4160 area and up now. Buy activated with TP of 4196-4200 and if did not hold 4200-10 area then will try to enter sell after confirmation. 
Patience
- #13,970
- Nov 14, 2025 1:56am Nov 14, 2025 1:56am
- Joined Jun 2025 | Status: Trader | 1,839 Posts | Online Now
Gold is currently struggling to hold above the rising trendline and is trading around a key rejection zone near 4190-4200. The chart shows liquidity taken at the top and a clear weakness forming after breaking the minor structure. If price fails to reclaim and hold above 4210-20 the next move is likely a drop toward 4160 and deeper toward 4140 where the next liquidity pocket and trendline support sit. Upside remains limited unless price breaks clean above 4235-45. Bias: SELL (below 4210) Sell Zone: 4195-4210 Stop Loss: 4235 Take Profit: 4160 - 4140...
Gold has strongly rejected the 4160 support zone and is now climbing back above the mid trendline showing a short term bullish recovery. As long as price stays above 4175-4160 upside continuation is likely toward 4195 and potentially 4210. A clean break above 4195 will strengthen the bullish bias. However if price fails again near 4195-4205 it may slip back into consolidation. For now intraday bias is buy on dips while above 4160.
Patience
- #13,971
- Nov 14, 2025 1:58am Nov 14, 2025 1:58am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: Trader | 14,004 Posts
Insane in the Brain..
- #13,977
- Nov 14, 2025 2:18am Nov 14, 2025 2:18am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 3,130 Posts | Online Now
Holy Betting Grail strategy
- #13,979
- Nov 14, 2025 2:21am Nov 14, 2025 2:21am
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 3,130 Posts | Online Now
Holy Betting Grail strategy
- #13,980
- Edited 2:34am Nov 14, 2025 2:24am | Edited 2:34am
- Joined Oct 2025 | Status: Trader | 1,179 Posts
